United States

The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to a record close of 7798.99 on Thursday, topping 7800 intraday for the first time, after July producer price data showed wholesale inflation decelerating more than expected. The PPI rose 4.7% from a year earlier, down from a 5.5% annual pace in June, and was flat on the month. The Dow added 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.15% to its highest level since late June. The VIX edged up to 14.63.

The soft print, following last week’s weaker jobs report, firmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will stay on hold next month. The probability of a September hold has climbed to 65.6% on the CME’s FedWatch measure, up from 59.4% a day earlier. Fed officials remain split, with Richmond’s Tom Barkin arguing for steady rates as inflation eases while Cleveland’s Beth Hammack repeated her call for a hike.

The bond market told a more complicated story. Treasuries rallied across the curve, the 10-year yield falling to 4.64%, yet the government sold US$25 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.216%, the highest yield at that tenor since 2001, underscoring the premium investors demand to fund widening deficits.

In corporate news, Workday surged 17% after Reuters reported private equity firm Silver Lake is in talks to buy the software provider. Nvidia rose 0.5%, lifting its market value to US$5.45 trillion. AMD priced its biggest-ever US dollar bond at US$4.75 billion, adding to the wave of AI-linked debt, while Cisco disappointed with a US$7.5 billion AI data centre sales forecast. Hertz tumbled after Pershing Square confirmed it had sold its stake in the car rental company.

Europe

The Stoxx Europe 600 ended little changed as a slide in mining shares erased earlier gains driven by upbeat earnings. Payments company Adyen soared 16% after lifting its revenue goal on the back of recent acquisitions, and shipper Maersk jumped 9.4% to a four-year high as rising freight rates powered a strong beat and improved outlook. Thyssenkrupp gained 9.1% and Pandora added 8.5% after both raised guidance, while Swissquote slumped 14% as weakening crypto income forced it to cut targets.

Basic resources fell 3% as base metals retreated, with Rio Tinto down 4.8% in London and Antofagasta sinking 6.8% after trimming production guidance on wild weather. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.6% to 10,772.67.

*Note: These prices are based on futures and/or CFD pricing and may therefore differ slightly from spot pricing.

Commodities and Currencies

Oil retreated as traders weighed flows through the Strait of Hormuz with a deal to end the Iran war still elusive. Brent fell 2.3% to US$86.96 a barrel, snapping a six-day rally in its biggest drop in more than a week, while WTI slid 2.5% to US$81.21. Gold was flat at US$4350.56 an ounce and iron ore edged 0.1% higher to US$95.65 a tonne.

The Australian dollar was steady at US70.59¢. The yen hovered near 159.50 per US dollar, within reach of the closely watched 160 level, as reports emerged the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates in September or October. Australia’s 10-year yield sat at 4.99%, and bitcoin eased 0.2% to US$63,375.

Economic Calendar

EU:

• GDP SA QoQ, YoY 19:00

US:

• Retail Sales Advance MoM 22:30
• Uni. of Michigan Sentiment 00:00