31 Aug 2026 Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish
Monday 31st August
WTI crude closed at 84.988, sitting right at the top of a roughly year-long consolidation base that formed after the sharp decline from the ~110 highs seen earlier in the chart. Price is now pressing just above its 14-day average (red, 84.331) and its 50-day average (yellow, 80.028), with both short- and medium-term averages having curled higher after basing near the 200-day average (green, 79.232) through June and July — a classic setup where a longer-declining trend is transitioning into consolidation, since the 200-day is essentially flat and price has reclaimed it. The Stochastic Momentum Index is instructive here: it spiked sharply into overbought territory in August (a strong impulsive move) and has since pulled back but is still hovering in modestly positive territory (21.7/26.8) rather than collapsing back to oversold — this pattern of “overbought spike, shallow pullback, momentum holding above zero” is often a bullish continuation signal, since it shows dips are being bought rather than reflecting genuine trend exhaustion, though it’s not yet confirmed. A sustained close above the 84.3 resistance shelf (the recent multi-month pivot high) would open the path toward the low-90s, where the 50-day average once capped price on the way down and could act as the next real hurdle; failure to clear this zone and a slip back below the 50-day average at 80.0 would suggest the range is intact, with the 200-day average near 79.2 as the more important floor to watch for confirming whether the base holds.
On the 4-hour chart, price at 84.978 is trading right on top of its 14-period average (83.568) and just above the 50-period average (84.852), both of which have flattened out and converged near current price after crossing higher through August — a compression pattern that often precedes a directional breakout once price clears the cluster decisively. The 200-period average (green, 83.271) sits just below as the more structurally significant support, having been reclaimed during the recent rally off the July lows near 76–78. Momentum is fairly balanced right now: the SMI is hovering close to the midline (50.4/47.9), not extended in either direction, which reflects the choppy, sideways price action of the last few sessions rather than a strong divergence signal — a break of the SMI decisively above 60 alongside a push through 85 resistance would tilt this constructively, whereas a rollover back below the 40 level as price slips under the 50/200-period average cluster near 83–84 would flag near-term weakness. A short-term push higher would target the mid-August swing high near 87, while support sits first at the 200-period average around 83.3, with the July range floor near 80.5 the next real technical shelf beneath that.
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish
Friday 28th August
Crude oil’s daily chart shows a market working through a shakeout after a strong multi-month advance: price spiked toward the mid-90s in August before pulling back to the current 84.017 close, now sitting just below its 14-day moving average at 84.222, which has flipped from support into immediate overhead resistance on this pullback. The broader trend structure remains constructive, however, with price still comfortably above both the 50-day MA at 79.839 and the 200-day MA at 79.104 — the latter having curled higher over recent months, a sign the longer-term base built earlier in the year is holding and continuing to underpin the market. The Stochastic Momentum Index (15,3,3) reads 25.29/31.65, having rolled down sharply from an overbought spike above 80 in early August; because that SMI peak came alongside the recent price high, this cooling of momentum without a corresponding breakdown in price is a normal digestion of the prior rally rather than a confirmed bearish divergence, but it does argue against chasing longs until momentum resets or price reclaims the 14-day MA. A reclaim of 84.22 would open the path back toward the August swing high near 92.00, while a daily close below the 50-day MA at 79.84 would shift the bias more decisively bearish toward the 200-day MA at 79.10. A stop loss just below 79.10 (the 200-day MA) would frame risk for a longer-term long-bias position, with the more conservative near-term stop at 79.84 for traders looking to play the range.
On the 4-hour chart, price has slipped into a compressed range between its moving averages, closing at 84.007 — above the 14-period MA (82.650) but capped below the 50-period MA at 84.996, which now represents the key overhead resistance following the failed push toward the August highs. The 200-period MA at 83.147 sits just below current price and is the more important line in the sand: as long as it holds, the broader uptrend from the mid-year lows stays technically intact, but a break below it would expose the 14-period MA near 82.65 as the next support test. Momentum on this timeframe is the more telling signal: the SMI has dropped to 34.23/17.65, well off its recent overbought extremes in the 80–90 zone even as price is only modestly below its August peak — a momentum-price divergence that suggests short-term buying pressure has faded faster than price has corrected, favoring sellers on any bounce back toward the 50-period MA. Immediate resistance sits at 84.99 (50-period MA), with a break back above it needed to re-open the 92.00 target; on the downside, a loss of the 200-period MA at 83.15 would point toward 82.65 and potentially the broader May–June consolidation zone below that. A stop loss placed just above the 50-period MA at 84.99 suits a short-term short/fade approach given the momentum rollover, while a break and hold above that level would invalidate the near-term bearish read.