Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 26th June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil Cash presents an unambiguously bearish longer-term bias, with price currently at 72.935 trading below all three TMAs — the 14-period at 79.65, the 50-period at 93.57, and the 200-period at 74.72 — a configuration that confirms broad-based selling pressure across the trend structure, as all three averages are sloping downward and acting as a cascading resistance ceiling that has consistently rejected recovery attempts since the April 2026 peak near 110. Of particular technical significance is the fact that price has now broken below the rising 200-period TMA at 74.72, which had served as a long-term dynamic support floor throughout the prior bull run; a sustained close beneath this level structurally shifts the longer-term bias from neutral to bearish, as the 200-period TMA crossing above the current price level signals that the long-term trend has turned negative for the first time in over a year. The price structure displays a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the April peak, with the current price probing a critical horizontal support zone around 72.50–73.00 that corresponds to a multi-month consolidation base visible in the late 2025 price history; a decisive breakdown below this zone would open the path toward 70.00 — a psychologically significant round number — and potentially 63.00, which represents the next meaningful support ledge from the pre-rally base. The Stochastic Momentum Index is at extreme oversold readings of -86.03 (signal) and -86.96 (smoothed), the deepest oversold readings observed across the entire chart history shown, which normally would warrant caution about further aggressive shorting in isolation; however, critically, there is no bullish divergence forming between price and the SMI — both are making synchronised new lows, confirming that momentum is fully aligned with the downtrend rather than exhausting — meaning oversold conditions reflect the severity of the trend rather than signalling an imminent reversal. Traders maintaining a bearish bias should target 70.00 as the initial downside objective, with a secondary target at 63.00 on a sustained breakdown; a stop loss positioned above the 200-period TMA at 74.72 is recommended, as a reclaim and close above that level would suggest a meaningful structural shift and would invalidate the near-term bearish thesis.

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil confirms the bearish short-term outlook, with price at 72.899 trading below all three TMAs — the 14-period at 72.345 sitting just beneath current price, the 50-period at 75.84, and the 200-period at 91.29 — all of which are trending sharply lower in a deeply negative alignment that reinforces the absence of any bullish structural foundation on this timeframe. The 200-period TMA at 91.29 represents a distant and deeply overhead resistance level that underscores just how extended the downtrend has become, while the 50-period TMA at 75.84 serves as the immediate overhead resistance that sellers have defended on every attempted recovery since mid-May, creating a well-defined short-side opportunity on rallies toward that level. The 14-period TMA at 72.345 is marginally below the current price, indicating that even the shortest-term average is offering no meaningful dynamic support and that price is essentially in free-fall on the near-term structure. The Stochastic Momentum Index reads -19.083 (signal) and -34.789 (smoothed), placing it in the lower half of its range but not yet at extreme oversold levels, which is a notable divergence from the daily chart’s extreme readings — on the 4-hour timeframe, the SMI has the capacity to push meaningfully lower before reaching exhaustion levels, suggesting there is additional downside momentum available before a technical bounce becomes likely. There is no positive divergence forming between price and the SMI on this timeframe either, as both continue to trend lower in alignment, removing any near-term contrarian reversal argument. Traders with a bearish short-term bias should use any minor recovery toward the 50-period TMA at 75.84 as a selling opportunity, targeting an initial move to 70.00, with an extended target at 63.00 on a sustained breakdown below current support; a stop loss above the 50-period TMA at 75.84 is appropriate for short positions, as a close above that level on the 4-hour chart would signal a short-term trend shift and warrant reassessment of the bearish positioning.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 25th June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents an unambiguously bearish longer-term bias, with price currently trading at 71.35 after a dramatic reversal from the April 2026 peak near 120.00, representing a decline of roughly 40% that has obliterated the entire rally from the late-2025 lows and returned price to levels not seen since mid-2025 — this scale of reversal confirms that the prevailing trend has decisively shifted from bullish to bearish and that the macro structure now favours sellers on any meaningful bounce. All three TMAs are in a deeply bearish configuration: the 14-day TMA at 80.96 is declining sharply and sits as the most immediate dynamic resistance overhead, the 50-day TMA at 93.83 represents secondary resistance at a considerably higher level, and the 200-day TMA at 74.67 — which historically acts as the most significant long-term trend indicator — has now been broken to the downside and has flipped its role from support to resistance, a technically significant development as price trading beneath a declining 200-day average is the definitive hallmark of a primary bear market. The 200-day TMA at 74.67 therefore becomes the most critical near-term resistance level, and any rally toward this zone should be treated with scepticism unless accompanied by a meaningful shift in momentum structure. The Stochastic Momentum Index is at an extreme reading of -93.01 on the fast line and -90.01 on the signal line — among the most deeply oversold readings on this timeframe — yet critically, there is no bullish divergence to speak of, as price is simultaneously at multi-month lows with the SMI locked at comparable extreme levels, confirming that selling momentum remains intact rather than exhausting; this type of extreme oversold reading without divergence often reflects panic or capitulatory selling that can briefly stabilise but historically resolves with a continuation of the prevailing trend once any short-covering bounce fades. Traders maintaining a bearish bias should look to fade any recovery into the 74.67–80.96 resistance band, targeting a retest of the intraday low at 70.96 and an eventual extension toward the 65.00 structural support zone, with a stop loss placed on a daily close above the 80.96 TMA to define risk against a more substantive recovery.

The 4-hour chart confirms and amplifies the bearish narrative established on the daily timeframe, with WTI trading at 71.36 beneath all three TMAs in a textbook bearish stack — the 14-period TMA at 73.64 acts as the first and most responsive resistance level, with the 50-period TMA at 77.14 providing the secondary supply zone, and the 200-period TMA at 92.08 now functioning as a distant but formidable long-term overhead barrier that underscores just how far price has deteriorated from the structural trend; the consistent pattern of price rallying into these declining moving averages only to be rejected has been the defining characteristic of the intermediate downtrend from the April highs, and this behaviour is expected to persist until a meaningful base formation develops. The price structure on the 4-hour chart shows a relentless sequence of lower highs and lower lows from the March peak near 120 through the current lows around 70.96, with each attempted recovery finding renewed selling pressure at progressively lower TMA levels — a pattern that reflects an orderly but persistent distribution by larger market participants. The SMI on the 4-hour reads -86.56 on the fast line and -86.53 on the signal line, placing it at deeply oversold extremes comparable to prior swing lows seen in February and April of this year; however, the distinguishing factor is that on those prior occasions the SMI showed clear bullish divergence against price, whereas the current configuration shows both price and the SMI reaching simultaneous extreme lows, eliminating the typical early-reversal signal and suggesting that while a short-term bounce is statistically possible from these extended levels, the structural conditions for a sustained recovery have not yet been established. Short-term traders should treat any intraday relief rally into the 73.64 TMA as a potential shorting opportunity, with a primary downside target at the recent swing low of 70.96, beyond which a break opens the path toward 65.00 — a key long-term structural support level visible on the broader chart — while maintaining a stop loss on a 4-hour close above 77.14 to protect against a sharper short-covering move that could temporarily challenge the 50-period TMA before the downtrend resumes.

Wednesday 24th June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a firmly bearish longer-term bias, with price currently trading at 74.131 after an extended decline from the March 2026 peak near 120.00, having now surrendered all of the extraordinary rally gains accumulated since late 2025. Price is trading decisively below all three moving averages — the 14-day TMA at 82.645 (red), the 50-day TMA at 94.317 (yellow), and the 200-day TMA at 74.645 (green) — in a bearish stacking formation where the shorter-term averages are cascading below the longer-term ones, confirming the structural integrity of the downtrend; notably, price has now breached the 200-day TMA at 74.645, which had previously acted as a long-term rising support since the 2025 recovery phase, and this breakdown transforms that level into dynamic resistance on any attempted bounce. The 14-day TMA at 82.645 and the 50-day TMA at 94.317 represent successive resistance barriers that would need to be reclaimed before any bullish case could be considered, making the path of least resistance unambiguously lower. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI 15,3,3) is registering extreme oversold readings with the fast line at -90.080 and the signal line at -86.905, both pressing against the lower boundary of the indicator’s range near -100; crucially, however, there is no bullish divergence present — price is making fresh multi-month lows while the SMI is simultaneously reaching its most extreme oversold reading of the entire charted period, indicating that selling momentum is accelerating rather than waning, and that the depth of the oversold condition reflects the severity of bearish conviction rather than an impending reversal. The immediate support level resides at the session low of 74.055, a breach of which would open the path toward the 70.00 psychological and technical level — a round-number support that aligns with the pre-rally consolidation zone of mid-2025. Traders maintaining a bearish posture should target 74.05 as the near-term breakdown trigger with 70.00 as the extended objective, while a stop loss positioned above the 14-day TMA at 82.65 is recommended to protect against any mean-reversion bounce into the descending moving average cluster.

The 4-hour chart mirrors and amplifies the bearish narrative from the daily timeframe, displaying a sustained and orderly downtrend from the April 2026 highs above 110.00 that has progressively dismantled every meaningful support structure on the way down to the current price of 74.070. Price is entrenched below all three moving averages — the 14-period TMA at 75.553 (red), the 50-period TMA at 78.963 (yellow), and the 200-period TMA at 92.825 (green) — all of which are sloping sharply downward in full bearish alignment, creating a layered resistance architecture that systematically suppresses recovery attempts; the 14-period TMA at 75.553 acts as the most immediate overhead barrier, followed by the 50-period TMA at 78.963, with the 200-period TMA at 92.825 representing a distant and formidable resistance level that is entirely out of reach given the current momentum profile. A horizontal support shelf is visible near the 74.05 area — corresponding to the current session low and a prior trough from early 2026 — and a confirmed close below this level would constitute a significant technical breakdown with limited near-term support until the 70.00 region. The SMI (15,3,3) on the 4-hour frame reads -83.511 on the fast line and -79.931 on the signal, both deeply embedded in the extreme oversold zone; while the 4-hour SMI has previously touched comparable oversold depths during the April and May 2026 sell-offs and produced short-lived counter-trend bounces, each of those recoveries was immediately capped by the descending moving averages and price resumed its downward trajectory — a pattern of “oversold into further selling” that confirms the dominance of bearish momentum and renders the oversold reading a reflection of trend strength rather than a reversal signal. No bullish divergence is identifiable at this stage, as both price and the oscillator continue to decline in synchrony. Traders should maintain a bearish bias targeting 74.05 on an immediate basis and 70.00 on an extended breakdown, with a stop loss placed above the 14-period TMA at 75.55 to guard against any brief short-covering spike before sellers reassert control.

Tuesday 23rd June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a strongly bearish longer-term bias, with price currently trading at 75.570 — having collapsed from the April 2026 peak near 120.00 and now approaching a critical confluence zone where the rising 200-period TMA (green) at 74.594 converges with a significant horizontal support level that had previously capped price action throughout mid-2025. The moving average structure is unambiguously bearish: the 14-period TMA (red) at 84.199 has crossed decisively below the 50-period TMA (yellow) at 94.684, forming a classic “death cross” configuration where both declining short and medium-term averages exert layered overhead resistance against any attempted recovery — the 14-period TMA at 84.20 represents the first and most immediate resistance, while the 50-period TMA at 94.68 would require a substantial trend reversal to challenge. The price breakdown from the March–April consolidation range above 100.00 has been relentless, printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows that defines the dominant downtrend. The SMI is currently at an extreme oversold reading of -85.000/-83.228, which represents the most deeply negative momentum reading visible across the entire chart history shown — critically, while this extreme oversold condition could precede a technical bounce, the SMI has reached these depths in lockstep with price making new cycle lows, meaning there is no bullish divergence to support a reversal thesis; instead, the aligned deterioration of both price and momentum confirms the strength of the prevailing downtrend. The 200-period TMA at 74.594 is the last meaningful daily support before a potential extension toward the 65.00 region, which aligns with the pre-rally consolidation base from late 2025. Traders should treat any SMI-driven bounce toward the 14-period TMA at 84.20 as a selling opportunity within the dominant bearish trend, with a stop loss placed above 84.20 and primary downside targets at 74.60 followed by 65.00 on a confirmed break of the 200-period TMA.

The 4-hour chart confirms and amplifies the bearish short-term outlook, with price at 75.570 trading below all three TMAs in a bearish fan alignment — the 14-period TMA (red) at 76.773, the 50-period TMA (yellow) at 81.043, and the 200-period TMA (green) at 93.462 are all positioned above current price and all slope downward, creating a cascading resistance structure that would require successive recoveries to overcome. The price action since the April 2026 peak at approximately 120.00 on this timeframe tells the story of a relentless waterfall decline, punctuated only by brief corrective bounces that have consistently failed at the declining 14-period and 50-period TMAs — each failed recovery has set a lower high, reinforcing the integrity of the downtrend. The most immediate overhead resistance is the 14-period TMA at 76.773, which is barely above current price and will quickly reassert bearish pressure on any intraday bounce, while the 50-period TMA at 81.043 represents a more significant barrier that would need to be reclaimed to suggest even a short-term trend shift. The SMI at -58.214/-50.692 is in oversold territory on this timeframe, and notably the signal line (orange) at -50.692 is slightly above the main line (blue) at -58.214, which may indicate the early stages of a minor momentum attempt at a bullish cross — however, this is insufficient to alter the bearish bias given that price continues to make fresh lows and the divergence between the two SMI lines is marginal rather than confirmed. Should the SMI produce a verified bullish cross from these levels, it would signal a short-term corrective bounce toward 81.04 (50-period TMA), which should be treated as a shorting opportunity rather than a trend reversal signal. The primary downside target remains the 200-period daily TMA at 74.60, with a deeper extension toward 65.00 if that level is breached on a closing basis. A stop loss above the 14-period TMA at 76.773 is recommended for short positions, as a reclaim of this level would suggest a more extended corrective phase is underway before the downtrend resumes.

Monday 22nd June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a firmly bearish longer-term bias, with price currently trading at 79.31 in a well-established downtrend that has accelerated sharply from the April 2026 highs near 120.00. All three TMAs are positioned above price and in a bearish descending alignment — the 14-day TMA (red) at 86.09, the 50-day TMA (yellow) at 95.09, and the 200-day TMA (green) at 74.55 — with the notable exception that the 200-day TMA is now beneath the current price and rising from below, representing the sole structural support remaining on the daily timeframe. The bearish crossover of the 14-day TMA below the 50-day TMA is a significant development, confirming the intermediate trend has decisively shifted lower, and both of these averages will now act as layered dynamic resistance on any counter-trend rallies — the 14-day at 86.09 being the first meaningful hurdle, followed by the far more significant 50-day cluster near 95.09. Price has also broken below a key historical horizontal support level visible around 79.00–80.00, a zone that previously acted as significant resistance during the 2025 consolidation phase, and this level now risks flipping to resistance on a retest. The SMI at -74.06 (signal at -77.50) is deeply oversold, and critically, while the indicator is compressing near its lows, there is a tentative early signal of bullish divergence developing — price has made a fresh multi-month low near 78.82 in recent sessions while the SMI has not yet confirmed a lower low compared to its earlier June trough, suggesting that downside momentum may be beginning to exhaust. However, this divergence signal remains unconfirmed and premature for a reversal call given the dominant bearish structure; it is more consistent with a short-term bounce potential rather than a trend change. The immediate downside target on a break of 200-day TMA support at 74.55 points to the 70.00 psychological level, while resistance on any recovery is capped at 86.09 then 95.09. Bears should maintain short positions with a stop loss above the 14-day TMA at 86.09, using any SMI-driven bounce as a higher entry opportunity within the prevailing downtrend.

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil shifts the short-term outlook to neutral, as a meaningful bullish divergence between price and the SMI has developed and is now beginning to resolve to the upside, warranting caution on fresh short entries at current levels. Price is trading at 79.34, below both the 14-period TMA (red) at 77.06 and the 50-period TMA (yellow) at 82.77, while the 200-period TMA (green) at 94.22 remains far overhead — the full bearish TMA stack confirming the intermediate downtrend. However, the critical technical development on this timeframe is the clear bullish SMI divergence: price carved out a fresh low near 78.82 during the most recent June selloff, yet the SMI registered a significantly higher low compared to its mid-June extreme readings near -80, with the indicator now recovering sharply to +9.22 (signal at -2.82) and crossing above its signal line — a momentum crossover that is a classic short-term buy signal following a divergence setup. This bullish momentum crossover, where the SMI line crosses above its smoothed signal, is significant because it indicates that selling pressure has been absorbed and short-term buyers are taking control, even if only temporarily within the broader downtrend. The immediate upside target for this technical bounce is the 50-period TMA resistance at 82.77, which coincides with the prior breakdown zone around 82.00–83.00 and represents a logical profit-taking area for short-term longs. A sustained break above 82.77 would open a move toward the next resistance at the 200-period TMA at 94.22, though this scenario appears unlikely given the dominant bearish trend. Downside support is defined by the 14-period TMA at 77.06, with a break below targeting 74.00. Short-term traders may look to position long toward 82.77 with a stop loss below the recent swing low at 77.06, while medium-term bears should await a re-test of TMA resistance before re-engaging short positions.

Friday 19th June

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a firmly bearish longer-term bias as price at 76.858 has collapsed below all three key moving averages — the 14-day TMA at 87.139 (red), the 50-day TMA at 95.446 (yellow), and the 200-day TMA at 74.464 (green) — with the 14-day and 50-day TMAs in a steep bearish alignment and both pointing sharply lower, confirming that the dominant trend has reversed from the explosive rally that peaked near 120 in late March 2026. The sequence of progressively lower highs from the March peak through April and May, culminating in the current breakdown toward the 77 area, establishes a clear descending price structure, and the fact that price is now compressing toward the 200-day TMA at 74.464 — the last major long-term support — makes this level critically important; a sustained daily close below 74.464 would signal a full structural breakdown and open the path toward the 70.00 psychological support level. The 14-day TMA at 87.139 and the 50-day TMA at 95.446 now represent significant overhead resistance zones, and the wide gap between current price and these averages illustrates the magnitude of the bearish momentum already exerted. The SMI at -83.066 with its signal at -82.538 is deeply entrenched in extreme oversold territory, and critically, both lines are declining in near-perfect tandem with no separation or curl — there is no bullish divergence forming between price and the SMI at this stage, meaning momentum is confirming the price breakdown rather than warning of an impending reversal. Should the SMI begin to form a higher low while price tests or marginally breaches the 200-day TMA at 74.464, a divergence-based relief rally could emerge targeting the first resistance at 87.14; however, until that signal materialises, the bearish structure remains intact. Traders positioned short should maintain stops above 87.14 on a daily closing basis, as reclaiming the 14-day TMA would represent a structural recovery that invalidates the near-term bearish thesis.

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil confirms and reinforces the bearish bias seen on the daily timeframe, with price at 76.873 trading immediately below the 14-period TMA at 76.802 (red) — the only moving average in close proximity to current price — while remaining far beneath both the 50-period TMA at 84.072 (yellow) and the 200-period TMA at 94.904 (green), all three of which are trending sharply lower in a fully bearish alignment that underscores the pervasive selling pressure dominating the short-term structure. The 14-period TMA at 76.80 is of particular significance in the current environment as it is acting as an immediate dynamic resistance cap, and price’s failure to reclaim this level on any intraday bounces over recent sessions confirms that even minor recoveries are being absorbed by sellers, consistent with a market in active distribution. The 50-period TMA at 84.072 represents the next meaningful resistance layer, and the distance between current price and this level reflects the velocity and persistence of the recent decline. The SMI on the 4-hour frame reads -49.229 with its signal at -59.650 — notably, the SMI line is above its signal line at the current reading, which represents an early-stage internal cross that could indicate the pace of short-term selling is momentarily decelerating; however, this does not constitute a confirmed bullish divergence against price, as price has not yet formed a discernible base or higher low pattern. Should the SMI signal line begin rising toward the SMI line while price holds above the 200-day TMA support at 74.464, a short-covering bounce toward 76.80 and potentially 84.07 could develop — but this scenario requires confirmation before positioning. The primary downside target remains the 74.46 zone where the daily 200-TMA converges with prior structural support, and a break below that opens the door to 70.00. Bearish traders should manage risk with stops placed above 84.07 on a 4-hour closing basis, as a reclaim of the 50-period TMA would indicate a meaningful short-term trend change.