WTI OIL
30 Jun 2025
WTI Oil: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
| Resistance | 72.08 then 75.31 |
| Support |
66.16 then 64.25 |
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
| Resistance |
66.00 then 70.54 |
| Support |
|
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Monday 30th June
WTI crude oil remains within a broad descending channel (orange trendlines), but recent price action has shown a notable breakout attempt above the upper trendline, which failed near the 79.43 resistance level—an important horizontal barrier and prior swing high. The price has since pulled back sharply and now consolidates just above the 200-day SMA (green) at 68.93, with the 14-day SMA (blue) at 70.08 and 50-day SMA (pink) at 64.25 forming a convergence zone beneath. The failed breakout followed by a bearish engulfing candle suggests a bull trap, especially as the SMI has reversed sharply lower to -40.19%, indicating strong bearish momentum. Despite holding above the 200-day SMA, the inability to sustain above 75.30 and 72.08 resistance signals caution. Resistance sits at 72.08 then 75.31, while support lies at 66.16 (prior breakout base and Fibonacci level) and then 64.25 (50-day SMA). A confirmed close below the 200-day SMA would shift the bias to bearish. A stop loss above 72.50 is recommended for downside trades targeting 66.16 or 64.25.
The 4-hour chart highlights a bearish shift in momentum following a steep rejection from 79.43, with the price now trapped below all three key moving averages—14-period SMA at 66.50, 50-period SMA at 70.53, and 200-period SMA at 65.98. This alignment of downward-sloping SMAs confirms a negative short-term structure. The price has formed a horizontal consolidation range near 65.98 after breaking down from its June rally, with multiple failed attempts to reclaim the 66 level. The Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply negative at -39.47%, showing persistent bearish pressure without any bullish divergence—suggesting continued downside risk. Resistance is now at 66.00–66.20, with a more significant ceiling at 70.54 (50-SMA). Support is seen at 63.70, and then at the psychological 60.00 level. A stop above 66.50 is prudent for bearish trades, with downside targets at 63.70 and 60.00.
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Friday 27th June
The daily chart shows a bullish trend, with the price trading above key moving averages, including the 50-day (pink line) and 200-day (green line) SMAs. The 200-day SMA has recently crossed above the 50-day SMA, which is a classic bullish signal. The price is currently supported by the 200-day SMA, which provides solid long-term support near 68.9505, and has recently tested resistance around 75.3092, with further resistance near 79.4310. The Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) shows positive divergence, confirming upward momentum, although the price is nearing the overbought zone, which suggests caution as the rally may be losing steam. Traders could target the upside to 75.3092 or 79.4310 with a stop loss just below 68.9505.
The 4-hour chart presents a neutral to bearish outlook, with the price struggling to break above resistance at 68.9505. While the price remains above the 200-period SMA, indicating short-term strength, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is in overbought territory, signaling potential weakness or a short-term pullback. If the price fails to break through 68.9505, it could face a reversal, with support levels at 63.6900 and 60.0000. The overbought conditions suggest a consolidation or bearish movement could be imminent. Traders should consider shorting near 68.9505 with a stop loss above 71.5891, targeting the downside towards 63.6900.
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