Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Monday 10th August

WTI crude’s daily chart tells the story of a dramatic round trip: a sharp spike from the mid-60s to above 110 was followed by a steady, grinding decline back down into the mid-70s, and price is now consolidating just above the 200-day MA (green, 77.404), which has acted as a durable floor through this entire cycle and is the level defining whether the longer-term trend stays constructive or rolls over. Price closed at 79.121, up 2.09% on the session, but remains below both the 50-day MA (80.614) and 14-day MA (82.801) — both of which are sloping downward and now represent the first layers of overhead resistance a recovery would need to reclaim to shift the bias decisively bullish. The Stochastic Momentum Index is climbing out of deeply oversold territory (-63.069/-58.166, after spending most of July pinned near -100), and importantly this recovery is occurring while price is holding above its 200-day MA rather than breaking it — a constructive momentum shift rather than a divergence warning, since price and momentum are both turning up together. That said, a single strong session doesn’t confirm a trend change, so the outlook stays neutral until 80.614 is reclaimed; a close above that level would open the path toward 82.801, while a failure to hold the 200-day MA would risk a retest of the 74.500 area, the last significant swing low. Traders positioning for the bounce to continue should consider stops below 77.404 to protect against a breakdown of the 200-day support.

The 4-hour chart shows a cleaner short-term picture: price has pushed back above both the 200-period MA (green, 77.978) and 14-period MA (red, 77.349), reclaiming a cluster of support that had capped the recent basing pattern, while the 50-period MA (yellow, 80.450) sits just overhead as the next test of strength. This moving-average realignment — short-term averages curling back above the long-term one — is typically an early signal that the short-term downtrend from the spring highs is stabilizing. The SMI on this timeframe reads 46.812/39.108, still in neutral-to-positive territory rather than overbought, which leaves room for the rally to extend without an immediate momentum ceiling; the indicator has been climbing steadily off its own oversold reading from late July in step with price, again showing momentum confirming rather than diverging from the move. A break above 80.450 would target the 82.000 area, the recent 4-hour swing high, while the 200-period MA at 77.978 is the key support to hold — a close back below it, followed by 77.349, would undermine the short-term bullish case and suggest the broader downtrend is reasserting itself. A stop loss just below 77.349 aligns with this bullish bias while giving the trade room against normal intraday noise.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 7th August

WTI Crude Oil’s daily chart is working through a significant correction after the explosive rally that carried price from the mid-60s to nearly 118 earlier in the year, and the pair is now consolidating at 78.563, sitting just above the 200-day moving average (green line) at 77.317 — the level that has repeatedly acted as the “line in the sand” for the broader uptrend and whose proximity to spot price makes it the single most important level on this chart right now. Price has been rejected below both the 50-day moving average at 80.946 (yellow) and the 14-day moving average at 83.335 (red), both of which have curled over and now function as layered overhead resistance, a classic sign that short and medium-term momentum has flipped from tailwind to headwind even though the longer-term trend structure hasn’t fully broken down. The Stochastic Momentum Index is reading -51.912 with its signal line at -61.147, still in negative territory well below the zero line, which confirms the bearish momentum has room to run before reaching oversold extremes — importantly, price is holding just above the 200-day MA while momentum stays soft, meaning there’s no bullish divergence yet to suggest the selling pressure is exhausting, which keeps the bias tilted lower rather than toward an imminent reversal. A confirmed daily close below the 200-day MA at 77.317 would open the door to a deeper retracement toward the 70.00 area, the general zone of the prior basing structure before the initial breakout began; conversely, reclaiming and holding above 80.946 would be needed to shift this back toward neutral-to-bullish. Traders should treat 77.317 as the key pivot, with a stop placed below 70.00 for anyone maintaining longer-term bullish exposure, while short-term traders can look to fade rallies into the 80.94–83.33 resistance band while the SMI remains negative.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price at 78.568 recently attempted a sharp bounce off the multi-month low near 65 but has since stalled and is now rolling back over, unable to sustain a move above the 50-period moving average at 80.906, which continues to act as the key overhead barrier for any near-term recovery attempt. Price is currently threading between the 200-period moving average (green line) at 77.884 and the 14-period moving average at 76.424, both of which are converging just below spot and forming a tight support shelf — a break below this cluster would remove the last near-term technical cushion and expose the market to a resumption of the broader downtrend. The Stochastic Momentum Index has fallen sharply from an overbought extreme to -16.962, with its signal line at -35.078 already below it, indicating that the recent bounce’s momentum has faded quickly and the indicator is now trending down rather than showing any bullish divergence against price — this reinforces the case that the failed rally was a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend rather than the start of a sustained reversal. Immediate resistance sits at 80.91 (the 50-period MA), with a further supply zone near 85.00 marking the recent local swing high; a rejection here would keep the short-term bias bearish. Support is seen at 77.88 (200-period MA), with a break below opening the door to a retest of 76.42 and potentially the mid-70s if selling accelerates. A stop loss placed just above 80.91 is recommended for traders positioning short off this rollover, protecting against a renewed breakout back above the moving average cluster.