11 Sep 2026 Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish
Friday 11th September
WTI has staged a powerful advance off its July low near 71, recently accelerating through all three moving averages: price at 103.67 is now well above the 14-day MA at 91.37 (red), the 50-day MA at 84.44 (yellow), and the 200-day MA at 80.89 (green), with all three stacked in bullish sequential order below current price — a textbook alignment for an established uptrend. The 200-day MA’s steady upward slope since around June also confirms the longer-term trend has turned decisively higher after the multi-month decline from the January peak near 110–116. Momentum strongly supports this move: the SMI is at 93.24/90.55, deep in overbought territory, and has been climbing in tandem with price rather than diverging from it, meaning there’s no bearish divergence warning here yet — the trend and momentum are aligned. That said, an SMI reading this extreme (above 90) historically doesn’t sustain for long on this chart without at least a pause or shallow pullback, so upside chasing here carries above-average mean-reversion risk even within an intact uptrend. Resistance sits first at the recent high of 104.84, with the more significant target being the January/February spike zone around 110, which was the prior major swing high before the correction began. On the support side, the 14-day MA at 91.37 is the first level that would need to hold on any pullback, with 84.44 (50-day MA) as the deeper support that aligns with the broader base built over June–August. A stop loss placed below 91.37 would protect against a failed breakout while still allowing room for normal volatility within the uptrend.
The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily’s bullish structure, with price at 103.66 having broken sharply above the 14-period MA at 97.86 (red), the 50-period MA at 93.24 (yellow), and the 200-period MA at 85.39 (green) — a steep, near-vertical move off the August base that reflects strong short-term buying pressure. This kind of separation between price and the shorter MAs is typical of an impulsive breakout phase rather than a steady grind, which raises the odds of a retracement back toward one of those MAs before the next leg higher. The SMI here is at 85.08/81.43, also firmly overbought and rising in step with price — again no bearish divergence present, so momentum is confirming rather than warning against the current thrust, though the extremity of the reading suggests the move is due for at least a consolidation pause. Immediate resistance is at the 104.84 high, with continuation potential toward the 108–110 zone that capped previous rallies earlier in the year; on the downside, first support is the 14-period MA at 97.86, a level that has acted as a springboard on prior pullbacks during this uptrend, with 93.24 (the 50-period MA) as the more important secondary support that would need to hold to keep the short-term bullish structure intact. A stop loss below 97.86 balances protecting against a sharp reversal while giving the trade room to breathe through normal 4-hour volatility.
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish
Thursday 10th September
The daily chart shows crude firmly in a bullish structural setup: after the parabolic spike toward 118 earlier in the year and a subsequent multi-month decline into a base near 70, price has staged a sustained recovery since July and is now trading above all three key moving averages in a fully bullish stack — the 14-day (red, 89.559), 50-day (yellow, 83.611), and 200-day (green, 80.632) are each rising and correctly ordered from shortest to longest, with the 200-day acting as the long-term floor that has held since the June low. This kind of stacked, ascending MA configuration is a textbook bullish trend signature, confirming that momentum has decisively shifted higher off the base. Immediate resistance sits at 98.13 (the recent daily high), with a break above opening the door to the psychological 100.00 level and the broader supply zone left behind by the January–March distribution range (95–108); on the pullback side, the 14-day MA at 89.56 is the first support test, with the 50-day at 83.61 as the more important trend-defining floor. The caveat here is the Stochastic Momentum Index, which is reading 89.1/85.8 — deep into overbought territory and at levels last seen during the initial spike — so while the trend remains bullish, this stretched momentum warrants some caution about a near-term consolidation or shallow pullback before any fresh push higher; it’s not yet a bearish divergence (price and SMI are both making new local highs together), but a reading this extreme rarely extends indefinitely without at least a pause. Traders should look to press the bullish trend on dips toward the 89.56–83.61 support band with a stop below 83.61 (below the 50-day MA), targeting a move toward 98.13 and then 100.00, while being mindful that a stall or reversal candle up here could mark a short-term top given the overbought SMI reading.
The 4-hour chart mirrors the bullish daily picture with a similarly clean bullish MA stack — the 14-period (red, 94.747), 50-period (yellow, 91.478), and 200-period (green, 84.946) are all rising and properly sequenced, with price having broken decisively above a multi-week consolidation base (roughly 85–95) that formed after the sharp June–July decline. This breakout above a well-tested range is constructive because it confirms buyers absorbed supply at lower levels before pushing price to fresh highs, and the 200-period MA at 84.946 now marks the boundary between the current uptrend and the prior downtrend regime. The Stochastic Momentum Index is reading 76.2/76.8, comfortably in overbought territory but — unlike the daily chart — not at an extreme historical reading for this timeframe, and importantly price and momentum are rising together with no bearish divergence visible, which supports trend continuation rather than imminent reversal. Immediate resistance is at 98.13, matching the daily high, with a breakout targeting the 100.00 round-number level; support on a pullback sits first at the 14-period MA near 94.75, with the more significant floor at the 50-period MA at 91.48, which also aligns with the top of the prior consolidation base (former resistance turned support). Short-term traders can favor buying dips toward the 94.75–91.48 zone with a stop placed below 91.48 (a break there would undermine the bullish structure and risk a retest of the 84.95 200-period MA), targeting 98.13 initially and 100.00 on continuation, while trimming or tightening stops if the SMI starts rolling over from these overbought levels without price making new highs.
Wednesday 9th September
WTI’s daily chart shows a market in a firmly bullish structural alignment: price closed at 94.998, sitting above all three moving averages — the 14-day at 88.736 (red), the 50-day at 83.018 (yellow), and the 200-day at 80.435 (green) — with the averages themselves stacked in classic bullish order (fast above slow above slowest). This follows a sharp round-trip: the market spiked violently above 110 in January, consolidated through a broad top near 100–103 into March, then sold off hard into a June/July low around 76, and has since staged a strong recovery back through all its moving averages to challenge the 95 level. The 200-day average at 80.435 has flattened and turned up, confirming the longer-term trend has genuinely reversed rather than just bouncing, while the 50-day at 83.018 sits below current price as the first real support shelf if this rally pauses. The Stochastic Momentum Index is reading 88.091/82.364 — deeply into overbought territory and roughly matching the magnitude of the SMI peaks seen at the January/February top, which means momentum is confirming this advance rather than diverging from it; there’s no bearish divergence signal here, but the sheer extremity of the reading warrants some caution about a near-term stall or consolidation even within an intact uptrend. Traders should watch the 100.00 shelf as the first real test of this rally, with a breakout opening the door to the 103.50 zone that capped the market earlier in the year; a stop placed below 83.02 (the 50-day MA) would sit beneath the level that has underpinned this entire recovery leg.
The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily picture with the same bullish moving-average stack: price at 94.998 is trading above the 14-period MA at 93.270, the 50-period MA at 90.006, and the 200-period MA at 84.811, with all three averages sloping upward and the faster ones having crossed decisively above the slower ones over the past several weeks — a configuration that typically signals a healthy, intact short-term uptrend rather than a market running out of steam. Price has been grinding higher in a series of shallow pullbacks that keep finding support at or above the 14-period average, and the current candle’s high of 95.181 marks the most immediate resistance overhead. The SMI on this timeframe reads 66.490/61.795, elevated and trending toward overbought but not yet at the kind of extreme seen on the daily chart, which leaves some room for continuation before the same exhaustion risk becomes a serious concern intraday. Because there’s no divergence between rising price and rising momentum here, the short-term bias stays aligned with the longer-term bullish read: a break above 95.18 would likely accelerate toward the 100.00 resistance shelf shared with the daily chart, while a pullback that fails to hold 93.27 would shift focus to the 50-period MA at 90.01 as the next demand zone. A stop below 90.01 would sit beneath both the 50-period average and the last meaningful consolidation base, protecting against a deeper reversal of this leg.
Tuesday 8th September
WTI crude’s daily chart shows price at 92.79 having clawed all the way back from the mid-70s summer low into a well-established recovery, now trading above all three key moving averages — the 14-day (red, 88.037), the 50-day (yellow, 82.462), and the 200-day (green, 80.243) — which is a textbook bullish stack with the shorter averages above the longer ones, confirming the uptrend has real structural support beneath it. The 200-day average near 80.24 marks the floor of the broader recovery move off the July low, while the rising 50-day at 82.46 has become the more immediate trend-following support as price has pushed higher through August and into September. Momentum backs up the move: the Stochastic Momentum Index has surged to 80.358/75.464, deep into overbought territory, and importantly it’s been making higher highs alongside price rather than diverging from it, which is a confirming (non-divergent) bullish signal rather than a warning — though the overbought reading itself does raise the odds of at least a short pause or shallow pullback before the next leg. Immediate resistance sits at the recent swing high of 93.20, and a clean break above that opens the door toward the psychologically significant 100.00 level, last visited during the spring spike; support is the 88.00 area (near the 14-day average) with the 50-day average at 82.46 as the deeper line traders would want held. Given the confirmed uptrend and non-divergent momentum, the longer-term bias is bullish, and a stop just below 88.00 would protect a long position while giving the trend room to breathe.
The 4-hour chart tells the same bullish story on a tighter timescale: price at 92.80 is holding above the 14-period (92.211), 50-period (88.686), and 200-period (84.710) averages, and all three are sloped upward and stacked correctly, reflecting the steady grind higher since the July base. Notably, the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index reading here (62.884/58.228) is more moderate than the daily’s deeply overbought print, meaning the intraday momentum has more room to run before hitting exhaustion — a supportive setup for continuation rather than an imminent reversal signal. Immediate resistance is at 93.20, matching the daily swing high, with 96.50 as the next objective if that level gives way; on the support side, 92.21 (the 14-period average) is the first level to watch on any dip, with 88.68 (50-period average) as the more meaningful support that would need to hold to keep the short-term uptrend intact. With price, moving averages, and momentum all aligned to the upside and no bearish divergence present, the short-term outlook is bullish, and a stop below 88.68 would keep risk contained while allowing for the current trend structure to play out toward the 93.20–96.50 resistance zone.
Monday 7th September
On the daily timeframe, WTI crude has staged a strong recovery from the July low near 76, with price now trading at 92.34 comfortably above all three moving averages: the 14-day (87.45), 50-day (82.01), and 200-day (80.07, the green line). This stacked bullish alignment — price above the fastest MA, which sits above the medium MA, which sits above the long-term MA — confirms trend strength across timeframes, and the rising 200-day MA underscores that the broader trend has turned constructively higher after the spring/summer decline. The Stochastic Momentum Index is elevated at roughly 70-74, deep in overbought territory, but importantly it is making a fresh high alongside price’s fresh high, so there is currently no bearish divergence on this timeframe — momentum is confirming the advance rather than warning against it, even though the overbought reading itself argues for some tactical caution on chasing the rally without a pullback. Immediate resistance sits at the psychologically significant 100.00 level, which also aligns with the underside of the March–April supply zone, with a further target near 110.00 if that round-number resistance gives way; on the downside, a stop loss placed below the 14-day MA at 87.45 would protect against a trend reversal while still giving the position room to breathe through normal volatility. Traders should note that overbought SMI readings in strong trends can persist for extended periods, so this alone isn’t a sell signal — it’s a flag to tighten risk management rather than to fade the trend outright.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the short-term structure is also bullish but showing early signs of momentum fatigue: price at 92.30 is holding just above the 14-period MA (91.73) and the 50-period MA (87.35), with the 200-period MA at 84.54 (green line) confirming the broader intraday uptrend that’s been intact since the July lows. The Stochastic Momentum Index has pushed to roughly 4-6, near the top of its recent oscillation range but noticeably lower than the peaks seen during the April and June rallies, and combined with price making marginally higher highs into early September, this is an early bearish divergence signal — momentum is not confirming price with the same conviction, suggesting the current leg up may be losing steam and a consolidation or shallow pullback toward the moving averages is increasingly likely. Immediate resistance is at the recent swing high of 92.87, with continuation potential toward the 100.00 round-number level if buyers push through; support sits at the 14-period MA near 91.73, with a deeper downside target at the 50-period MA around 87.35 should selling pressure emerge. A stop loss just below the 50-period MA at 87.35 is recommended for those holding intraday long positions, since a break of that level would undercut the short-term uptrend structure.
Friday 4th September
WTI crude’s daily chart shows price at 92.06, trading above all three moving averages in a clean bullish stack — the 14-day TMA (86.97, red), the 50-day TMA (81.60, yellow), and the 200-day TMA (79.90, green) are aligned from fastest to slowest, exactly as you’d want to see in a healthy uptrend, with each average now turning higher after basing through the June–July low near 78. That low marked the retracement floor following the violent spike-and-reversal from the Q4/Q1 spike toward 115, and the subsequent rebuild off 78 has been steady and orderly rather than parabolic, which gives this leg more credibility than the earlier spike did. The Stochastic Momentum Index is reading 71.67/65.24 — solidly in overbought territory after a strong multi-week push — which is worth flagging: when momentum runs this hot while price is still grinding higher without a clear pause, it often signals the rally is due for a consolidation or shallow pullback even within an intact uptrend, rather than a reversal outright. On balance this keeps the longer-term bias bullish, with the immediate target at the 100.00 round-number level (last tested in March) and a stretch target toward 103–105 (the February swing-high zone) if momentum resets and buyers push through; a stop loss below the 14-day TMA at 86.97 protects against a deeper corrective move back toward the 50/200-day confluence near 80–82.
On the 4-hour timeframe, price at 92.058 is holding just above its 14-period TMA (91.570, red), which itself sits above the 50-period TMA (86.489, yellow) and 200-period TMA (84.316, green) — a tightly bullish moving-average stack that mirrors the daily structure and confirms the short-term trend remains constructive, with all three averages sloping upward after the extended August base-building. Unlike the daily chart, momentum here is far less stretched: the Stochastic Momentum Index sits at 52.57/55.57, essentially mid-range, meaning the intraday rally has plenty of room before hitting overbought extremes, and there’s no meaningful divergence between price and momentum at this timeframe — both are advancing in sync, which supports continuation rather than an imminent reversal. Immediate resistance sits at 93.50–94.00, the recent intraday swing high, with a breakout there opening the path toward the bigger 100.00 psychological level shared with the daily chart; on the downside, a pullback would likely find first support at the 14-period TMA (91.57) with a deeper floor at the 50-period TMA (86.49) if selling intensifies. Given the well-aligned MAs and non-extreme momentum, a stop loss placed below 91.57 offers a reasonable balance between giving the trade room and protecting against a break of short-term trend structure.