Tuesday 1st April

The daily chart of WTI crude oil shows a bullish longer-term bias as the price breaks decisively above both the 14-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 14-day SMA (blue) curling upward and price now testing the 200-day SMA (green) at 73.11. This bullish crossover suggests a shift in momentum, especially after a multi-session rally from the March low near 66.69. The Stochastic Momentum Index is confirming the rally, with a sustained move above the 40% level and currently at 70.40%, indicating strong momentum and no immediate signs of bearish divergence. The recent breakout from the previous descending wedge pattern is also a strong technical signal of trend reversal, increasing the probability of a continued push higher. Key resistance lies at 73.11, just below the 200-day SMA, followed by the structurally significant 75.30 trendline and horizontal level. On the downside, initial support is at the 50-day SMA at 70.71, with further downside risk toward 68.92 if price fails to hold the breakout. For bullish trades, a stop loss below 70.50 is advisable to manage risk should the recent rally stall.

The 4-hour chart confirms a bullish short-term outlook after a strong breakout above the 200-period SMA (green) and horizontal resistance at 70.18. The 14-period and 50-period SMAs are both sloping upward and providing dynamic support, reflecting bullish market structure. Price has surged into the 72.08 resistance zone on high momentum, and the Stochastic Momentum Index supports this move with a clean break into overbought territory, currently reading 54.01%. Although the SMI is approaching elevated levels, there is no bearish divergence yet, which suggests the current rally may still have legs before encountering meaningful resistance near 73.11, which aligns with the daily chart’s 200-day SMA. Initial support is now defined at 70.18, with further downside protection at the 50-period SMA near 69.16. Short-term bulls could consider positioning on pullbacks toward 70.50 with a stop loss below 69.00 to stay protected in case of a false breakout.

Monday 31st March

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil reflects a neutral longer-term bias, with price rebounding from March lows but facing resistance at the 50-day (pink) moving average, currently near 70.78. While the price has made a series of higher lows in recent weeks, it still remains below the 200-day moving average (green), which is trending downward and acting as dynamic resistance around 73.16. The Stochastic Momentum Index has turned down from overbought territory and sits around 59%, showing fading bullish momentum. There is no clear momentum divergence yet, but the flattening trajectory of the SMI suggests caution. For the recovery to continue, the price must break and hold above 70.78, with further upside potential toward 73.16. On the downside, a close below the support at 68.50 could trigger a drop toward 66.69. Traders could consider a neutral strategy until a confirmed breakout or breakdown emerges, with stops placed below 68.50 for longs and above 73.16 for shorts.

The 4-hour chart also shows a neutral short-term outlook, with price oscillating between moving averages. While the price broke above the 50-period (pink) MA and briefly tested resistance at 70.77, it has since pulled back and now trades just above the 200-period (green) moving average near 69.17. The Stochastic Momentum Index has dropped sharply to -27%, indicating a potential loss in upside momentum, though still within the context of a higher low structure. A sustained push above 70.77 could reignite bullish momentum and pave the way for a test of 72.08. However, failure to hold above the 69.17–68.68 support zone could see the recent rally unwind. Traders may look for clearer directional signals, using tight stops on either side of this neutral consolidation range.

Friday 28th March

The daily chart for WTI crude oil reflects a neutral longer-term bias as the price attempts a recovery within a broader downtrend structure. Price action has rebounded from the 66.69 support level and is approaching the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 70.99, which aligns with horizontal resistance and may act as a short-term ceiling. The 14-day SMA is sloping upward and providing support to this recovery, while the 200-day SMA at 73.22 remains well above, suggesting the longer-term trend is still under bearish pressure. The descending trendline from the August highs is intact and likely to provide dynamic resistance near the 75.30 level if the rally extends. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged higher, nearing the overbought zone, reflecting strong short-term buying pressure; however, there’s a risk of waning momentum if price fails to close above 70.99. Upside targets remain capped unless price breaks above 72.09, while downside risks return on a close below 68.36. Long positions could consider stops below 67.90 to guard against a deeper retracement.

The 4-hour chart has shifted to a bullish short-term outlook as price action has broken above both the 50-period and 200-period SMAs, now trading in a rising trend structure. The 14-period SMA is firmly above the 50 and 200, reflecting strengthening momentum, and the crossover of the 50-SMA above the 200-SMA adds confirmation to the bullish shift. Price is currently consolidating just under 70.98, a key resistance level that aligns with the daily 50-SMA, and a breakout above this level would signal continuation toward 72.08. The Stochastic Momentum Index is rising from mid-levels but has not yet reached overbought territory, leaving room for further upside before signals of exhaustion appear. Support is well defined at 69.86, where the 14-period SMA provides short-term backing, followed by 68.28 near the 50-SMA. Traders may consider long entries above 70.98 with a stop below 69.30 to capitalise on the bullish breakout structure.