Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 18th December

On the daily timeframe, price remains locked in a well-defined downtrend, characterised by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the mid-2023 peak. The market is trading below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA (pink) acting as dynamic resistance and consistently capping recovery attempts, while the 200-day SMA (green) is flattening to slightly declining, reinforcing the loss of longer-term upside momentum. The 14-day SMA continues to track closely above price, highlighting weak short-term trend strength and the absence of sustained buying pressure. From a trend perspective, repeated failures near the 62–65 zone confirm this area as a key supply region. Momentum analysis using the Stochastic Momentum Index shows persistent readings in negative territory, with rallies failing to generate meaningful positive momentum, indicating bearish momentum confirmation rather than exhaustion. This alignment of price below key moving averages and weak stochastic momentum supports a bearish directional bias. Immediate support is located around 57.00, which represents recent swing lows and a minor horizontal demand zone; a sustained break below this level would expose a deeper downside target toward 52.00, aligning with prior consolidation and measured-move projections. Traders should favour selling rallies into resistance, with a protective stop placed above 68.00 to guard against a trend invalidation through the descending structure.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price action reflects a weak consolidation-to-distribution pattern within the broader daily downtrend. The market continues to trade below the 200-period SMA, confirming that the intermediate trend remains bearish, while the 14-period and 50-period SMAs are rolling over and acting as near-term resistance, signalling fading rebound attempts. The Stochastic Momentum Index is oscillating in the lower half of its range and struggling to sustain moves above neutral, which suggests that bearish momentum dominates even during short-lived recoveries. Notably, recent price bounces have occurred on declining stochastic peaks, highlighting bearish momentum divergence that favours continuation lower rather than reversal. Immediate resistance is defined near 60.50, followed by stronger resistance around 63.00 where multiple moving averages and prior breakdown levels converge. On the downside, 57.50 is the first key support; a clean break below this level would likely accelerate selling pressure toward 55.00, consistent with the prevailing trend structure and measured downside projections. From a trading perspective, rallies toward resistance offer higher-probability short setups in line with the dominant trend, with stops placed above 63.00, while any sustained move back above the 200-period SMA would be required to neutralise the bearish short-term bias.

                                        Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Wednesday 17th December

On the daily timeframe, WTI crude remains in a well-established longer-term downtrend, with price trading below the declining 200-day SMA, which is positioned well above current levels and continues to act as dominant trend resistance. The 50-day SMA has rolled over and is now converging with price around the 59–60 zone, reinforcing this area as a critical pivot and near-term resistance rather than support. The 14-day SMA is tracking closely beneath the 50-day SMA, highlighting weak short-term momentum and an absence of sustained buying pressure. Structurally, price has been making a series of lower highs and lower lows since failing near the mid-70s earlier in the year, confirming bearish trend continuation. Momentum conditions further support this view, with the Stochastic Momentum Indicator deeply negative and failing to sustain rebounds above the midline, indicating persistent downside momentum rather than oversold reversal behaviour. The lack of bullish divergence between price and momentum suggests the downtrend remains intact, increasing the probability of further downside toward the 58.00 support zone and potentially the psychological 52.00 level if selling pressure accelerates. From a risk management perspective, any rallies toward the 62.00–68.00 resistance band are likely to be corrective within the broader downtrend, with stops for short-biased positions best placed above the 68.00 region to protect against a trend invalidation.

On the 4-hour chart, price action confirms near-term bearish control, with WTI trading consistently below the falling 200-period SMA, which continues to cap upside attempts and define the short-term trend. The 50-period SMA is also sloping lower and has recently rejected price near the 60.00 area, reinforcing this level as immediate resistance. Short-term structure shows weak corrective bounces followed by renewed selling, consistent with a bear-flag style continuation pattern. Momentum analysis strengthens this bearish outlook, as the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is deeply oversold and remains suppressed without forming a meaningful bullish divergence, indicating that downside momentum is strong and persistent rather than exhausted. This type of momentum behaviour often accompanies trend continuation rather than reversal, suggesting further pressure toward 58.00 and then 55.00 if support fails. While brief mean-reversion rallies may occur due to oversold conditions, these are likely to be shallow unless price can reclaim and hold above the 64.00 level, which would be required to neutralise the short-term bearish bias. Until then, rallies into resistance should be viewed as selling opportunities, with stops placed above 64.00 to manage risk against an unexpected momentum shift.

Tuesday 16th December

On the daily chart, WTI remains in a broader bearish phase, with price slipping back into the lower end of its multi-year range and continuing to trade beneath the key long-term trend filter, the 200-day SMA (green), which highlights how far price is from reclaiming a sustained bull structure. The 50-day SMA (pink) is sitting around 59.4520 and has flattened/lowered, acting as nearby “overhead supply” rather than support, while the 14-day SMA (blue) is hugging price and rolling over, signalling weak short-term trend pressure. Structurally, the market has been carving out a sequence of lower highs across 2024–2025 and is now probing support around the high-50s, suggesting sellers still control rallies. Momentum confirms that view: the Stochastic Momentum Index is deep in negative territory around -55.91%, indicating downside momentum is still active rather than stabilising; importantly, there is no clear bullish divergence visible here (you typically want price making a fresh low while SMI makes a higher low), so the bias stays cautious. For trading levels, the first recovery hurdle is 60.00 (psychological and near the short-term averages), then 64.00 (prior breakdown area and a more meaningful pivot), while support sits near 57.00 followed by 55.00 (a more critical shelf—if that gives way, the risk shifts toward a faster liquidation leg). Bearish setups generally favour selling failed rallies into resistance with a stop loss above 64.00 to protect against a squeeze back into the prior range.

On the 4-hour chart, the short-term trend is also bearish, with price sliding lower into December and trading below a declining 50-period SMA (pink), showing that rebounds are being capped quickly and sellers are defending the mean. The 200-period SMA (green) is overhead and gently falling, reinforcing that the broader intraday structure is still “sell rallies” rather than “buy dips”, while the 14-period SMA (blue) sits close to price and continues to point down, reflecting persistent short-term selling pressure. Momentum aligns with the trend: the Stochastic Momentum Index is negative around -44.56%, and while it has oscillated frequently, it has not produced a clean bullish divergence signal that would typically warn of an imminent reversal (i.e., price making a lower low while SMI makes a higher low). From here, 60.00 is the first resistance to beat (it’s both psychological and a recent congestion area), then 62.00 as the next step-up where prior support has flipped into resistance; on the downside, 57.50 is the first area where buyers may try to stabilise, with 55.00 the more important “line in the sand” support that, if broken on a 4-hour close, would validate continuation toward lower range levels. For risk management, bearish continuation trades generally suit entries on rejection candles/failed breaks into 60.00–62.00, with a stop loss above 62.00 to avoid being caught in a reversal that reclaims the moving-average band.

Monday 15th December

On the daily chart, WTI crude oil remains in a well-established longer-term downtrend, with price trading below a declining 200-day SMA (green), which is a key confirmation that the primary trend has shifted from accumulation to distribution. The 50-day SMA (pink) is also rolling over and sitting below the 200-day average, reinforcing the bearish structure and indicating that rallies are being sold into rather than extended. Price is currently hovering around the 59–60 zone, which has acted as a prior congestion area, but the inability to reclaim and hold above the 50-day SMA suggests this level is vulnerable rather than supportive. Momentum further supports the bearish bias: the Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply negative around -41.96%, showing persistent downside momentum rather than a brief oversold flush, which implies sellers remain in control despite occasional short-covering bounces. From a structural perspective, the sequence of lower highs since the mid-cycle peak near the 100+ region confirms trend degradation, and unless price can reclaim 62.50 and then 68.00 (the latter aligning with prior breakdown resistance and the underside of the moving-average cluster), the risk remains skewed to the downside. A sustained break below 58.00 would likely open the door to a continuation move toward 54.00, a level that aligns with historical demand and prior reaction lows. For trend-following shorts, rallies toward 62.50 are favoured selling opportunities, with a stop loss placed above 68.00 to protect against a broader trend reversal scenario.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price action shows a choppy consolidation but within a broader bearish structure, as WTI continues to trade below a downward-sloping 200-period SMA (green), confirming that short-term rallies lack trend support. The 50-period SMA (pink) has flattened and is repeatedly capping upside attempts, highlighting fading bullish momentum and reinforcing the idea that recent rebounds are corrective rather than impulsive. Momentum readings via the Stochastic Momentum Index near -25.39% indicate weak upside follow-through; while not extremely oversold, momentum is failing to generate positive divergence, suggesting limited probability of a sustained upside reversal without a structural break higher. Immediate resistance is clustered around 61.50, where prior rebounds have stalled, followed by 64.00, which represents a more meaningful breakdown level and the upper boundary of the recent corrective channel. On the downside, 58.00 remains the key near-term pivot; repeated tests of this level increase the probability of failure, and a clean 4-hour close below it would likely accelerate selling toward 56.50 and potentially align with the daily-chart continuation target. From a trading perspective, the short-term bias favours selling failed rallies into resistance while price remains below 61.50–64.00, with a stop loss above 64.00. Alternatively, a confirmed break and hold above 64.00 accompanied by improving SMI momentum would be required to neutralise the bearish outlook and signal a deeper corrective recovery.

Friday 12th December

The daily chart shows a well-established bearish longer-term structure, with price continuing to grind lower beneath the 14-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. All three moving averages are declining, confirming persistent downward momentum and the absence of any meaningful trend reversal. Price is currently trading around 59.67, just above key horizontal support at 58.00, which aligns with a multi-year floor that has repeatedly held since early 2021. A breakdown below 58.00 would expose a deeper decline toward 52.00, the next major support derived from the 2020–2021 basing region. The Stochastic Momentum Index remains heavily negative at –27.21%, and importantly, the recent lower low in the SMI aligns with lower lows in price, providing no bullish divergence—a signal that downward pressure remains intact. Upward corrections remain countertrend and face immediate resistance at 62.00. A secondary upside target sits at 68.00, but this level is unlikely to be reached unless price can reclaim the 200-day SMA, which currently caps the broader downtrend. Given the trend strength and momentum alignment, short positions remain favoured with stop losses placed above 62.00 to protect against a mean-reversion rally.

The 4-hour chart reinforces the bearish short-term outlook as price continues to track beneath the downward-sloping 14-period, 50-period, and 200-period moving averages, illustrating persistent selling pressure across multiple timeframes. After a brief rebound in June–July, price failed at the 200-period SMA and has since rolled over, producing a series of lower highs and lower lows—a textbook definition of a downtrend. Current price action near 59.07 is hovering just above major support at 58.00; a clean break beneath this level would likely accelerate selling toward 55.00, driven by the absence of structural support in the intermediate zone. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at –33.24%, confirming bearish momentum, and the indicator continues to print lower peaks while price attempts to stabilise. This bearish momentum divergence (momentum weaker than price) signals increasing downside risk and reduces the probability of a sustained recovery. Resistance is clustered at 61.00, a higher resistance level sits at 64.00. Until price reclaims at least the 61.00 zone, sellers retain control. Short-term traders may continue to favour downside exposure with stops placed above 61.00 to avoid potential whipsaws from oversold snap-backs.