The daily picture shows price still structurally below the long-term moving average (the 200-day, 66.1) which keeps the longer-term bias cautious — rallies should be treated as supply until price sustainably clears that 200-day area. The 50-day (62.6) and the faster short MA (59–60) are clustered under current price and are now acting as the first line of support; those levels are meaningful for trend-followers because a daily close back below the 50-day would open the path to the prior swing lows around 56.0. Momentum on the daily (Stochastic/Momentum) has turned up from a shallow trough, indicating a short covering / mean-reversion attempt rather than a confirmed trend reversal — and there are signs of prior downside momentum not fully exhausted (daily highs were unable to push price above the 200-day). Trading plan: prefer a neutral-to-defensive stance on longer-term longs until price closes convincingly above the 200-day (66.1) — a breakout above that level targets the next supply band near 67.0. If initiating a trend trade to the long side, use a stop below the 50-day (62.6) to limit risk; for short bias, a failed test of 61.9 with rejection and falling stochastic would be the lower-risk entry with a stop just above 62.5.
On the 4-hour timeframe the market has staged a clear bounce — price has crossed above the short and intermediate SMAs and printed higher intraday lows, which gives a short-term bullish edge. However the 4-hour Stochastic is well into overbought territory (mid-70s), signalling the current impulse may be extended and vulnerable to a corrective leg or consolidation. There is no clean bullish divergence on the 4-hour; instead the rapid run has produced stretched momentum readings — that increases the probability of a shallow pullback to the 59.0–58.4 zone before continuation. Trading plan: momentum traders can look for continuation on a clean break and hold above 61.9 with an initial target at 66.0 and a tight trailing stop; swing traders wanting to join the move should prefer to buy a dip into the 59.0–58.4 support band (where moving averages converge) with a protective stop a few ticks below 58.0. Conversely, short-term sellers can fade a clear rejection under the 61.9 area with a stop above 62.5 and a target into the 59–58.4 support region.