The daily timeframe highlights a market struggling to sustain upside momentum. Price is currently trading around 65.42, sitting just below the 200-day SMA at 67.50, which continues to act as a strong dynamic resistance. The 50-day SMA at 65.42 and the 14-day SMA are compressing beneath the 200-day, reflecting an indecisive structure with a bearish lean given the prolonged downtrend earlier in the year. Attempts to rally have repeatedly failed to break decisively above the 200-day SMA, signalling that sellers are still defending higher levels. Momentum conditions also reflect weakness, with the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at 13.21%, staying close to oversold territory, which suggests limited buying conviction despite the recent base-building. Immediate resistance lies at 67.50, with a further upside target at 70.00 if a breakout above the 200-day SMA is achieved. On the downside, support is seen at 63.00 followed by 60.00, with a close below these levels likely to resume the broader downtrend. A protective stop loss for long positions should be placed under 62.80, while cautious traders may prefer to await a clear break above the 200-day SMA before positioning for the upside.
The 4-hour timeframe shows price rebounding strongly to trade around 64.66, now challenging the 200-period SMA at 64.18 after bouncing off support near 63.00. The short-term structure has improved, with the 14-period SMA crossing above the 50-period SMA at 63.27, signalling early bullish momentum. However, the price is pressing against the 200-period SMA, which has capped gains in previous attempts, making this level critical for direction. Momentum supports the rally, with the SMI at 68.52%, trending higher but nearing overbought territory, which may limit immediate upside potential and suggest short-term consolidation. A confirmed break above 64.70 would strengthen the bullish case, opening the way toward 66.00 as the next upside target. Conversely, failure to clear the 200-period SMA could trigger a pullback toward 63.70 and potentially back to 63.00. For tactical traders, the bias remains cautiously bullish as long as price holds above 63.20, with stops best placed below this level to protect against a reversal.