Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Thursday 11th December

On the daily timeframe, price is trading around 59–60 and remains locked in a broader downtrend from the 2022 highs, with a persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The 200-day SMA (green) is declining above price near 64, reinforcing a bearish longer-term structure and acting as the first major overhead barrier, while the 50-day SMA (pink) sits almost exactly at current levels around 59.8, effectively pinning price in a narrow band. The 14-day SMA (blue) is flat to slightly down, indicating a loss of directional momentum and a transition from strong selling to more of a grinding, sideways drift. The Stochastic Momentum Index is mildly negative (around −11.87%) and close to the midline rather than extreme oversold; importantly, recent lows in price have not been matched by new lows in the SMI, hinting at a small positive momentum divergence that argues against an aggressive fresh breakdown in the immediate term. However, with price still below the 200-day SMA and the long-term trend down, rallies toward 64 are more likely to attract sellers than signal a lasting reversal. A tactical approach would be to fade strength into the 64–68 resistance zone with downside targets back toward 56 and then 52 if that floor gives way, placing a protective stop above 68 to respect any sustained trend change.

The 4-hour chart shows a choppy consolidation within the broader daily downtrend, with price oscillating around 59.3 and the 50-period SMA clustered tightly at roughly the same level, underscoring the lack of clear short-term direction. The 200-period SMA (green) is trending lower above price near 61–62, confirming that the medium-term bias on this timeframe still favours sellers and providing a clear ceiling that must be reclaimed before any credible bullish reversal can develop. The Stochastic Momentum Index is slightly negative (around −9.63%) but not oversold, and, similar to the daily chart, recent marginal new lows in price have not produced lower SMI troughs, which is a mild positive divergence suggesting that selling pressure is losing intensity even as price grinds sideways to lower. This combination supports a neutral stance in the very short term: price could retest resistance at 60.5 and the 200-period SMA near 62 without invalidating the broader downtrend. Short-term traders may look to sell rallies into the 60.5–62 zone with initial downside objectives at 58 and then 56, using a stop-loss just above 62 to cap risk, while more conservative participants might wait for either a clean break above 62 (opening room toward 64) or a decisive close below 56 to re-engage with the dominant bearish move.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Wednesday 10th December

The daily chart maintains a clear bearish longer-term outlook, with price grinding lower in a broad downtrend from the 2022 peak and now trading just under 60 after failing to sustain any rallies above the falling 200-day SMA, which is hovering around the mid-60s and acting as a strong dynamic resistance zone. Both the 14-day and 50-day SMAs are clustered slightly below the 200-day SMA and gently sloping down, confirming that short- and medium-term momentum remain aligned with the primary downtrend and reinforcing the idea that any bounces towards these averages are more likely to be sold into than the start of a new up-leg. The Stochastic Momentum Index is negative but not yet deeply oversold, which indicates that momentum is weak but still has room to deteriorate before a more meaningful capitulation low is likely; importantly, there is no convincing bullish divergence between price and SMI, so the trend structure remains intact. Immediate resistance is seen at 65, near the underside of the recent swing highs, with a secondary upside cap around 72 if a short-covering rally emerges. On the downside, the first key support zone sits near 56, aligned with recent reaction lows, followed by a more strategic support level at 50, which marks a major psychological and historical floor. Trend-following traders may look to maintain a short bias while price remains below 65, with downside targets at 56 and then 50, and a protective stop placed above 66 to account for any temporary spikes above resistance.

The 4-hour chart reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, although conditions are moving into oversold territory, which raises the risk of a tactical bounce. Price is trading just below 60 and sits beneath the 14-period and 50-period SMAs, while both of these faster averages are also positioned below the declining 200-period SMA in the low-60s, a classic bearish stacking that signals persistent selling pressure and confirms that the path of least resistance remains to the downside. However, the Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply negative around the -60 region, indicating that the recent sell-off has been aggressive; at the same time, there are early signs of mild bullish divergence as the SMI begins to turn up from lower levels while price holds relatively steady around the 58–60 band, hinting that downside momentum may be starting to fatigue even though the broader trend remains down. In this context, immediate resistance is located near 61, where the short-term SMAs converge, with stronger resistance at 64 around a prior congestion zone. Initial support lies at 58, marking the recent intraday lows, followed by a more significant support area around 56, which coincides with prior multi-week troughs. Short-term traders may continue to favour selling rallies into the 61–64 region while the 200-period SMA trends lower, using downside targets at 58 and then 56; given the oversold SMI, stops on new shorts should be kept relatively tight above 65 to manage the risk of a sharper corrective rebound if the emerging momentum divergence gains traction.

Tuesday 9th December

The daily chart reflects a bearish longer-term bias, with WTI continuing to trade below all major moving averages—the 14-day and 50-day SMAs remain compressed and declining, while the 200-day SMA near USD 68 slopes steadily downward, confirming persistent longer-term selling pressure. Price action has been unable to reclaim this longer-term average for more than a year, reinforcing an entrenched downtrend structure marked by progressively lower highs since 2022. Recent price action around USD 59–60 shows sluggish consolidation near multi-month lows, and despite small rebounds, momentum remains weak. The Stochastic Momentum Index has turned higher from oversold levels, but notably, price has not formed a fresh low, creating a mild bullish momentum divergence, often an early indication that downside momentum is slowing—but not yet reversing. However, this divergence is weak compared to the prevailing trend pressure, suggesting any rallies may be corrective rather than trend-changing. Immediate resistance sits near USD 62, aligning with the declining 50-day SMA, and a further upside target lies near USD 67, where the 200-day SMA and prior breakdown zone converge. On the downside, failure to hold the USD 57 floor exposes USD 54, the next major historical support. With the broader structure still bearish, traders may target USD 54 on continued weakness, using a protective stop loss above USD 62.50 to avoid whipsaw risk should a counter-trend bounce develop.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral short-term outlook, as WTI attempts to stabilise above the USD 58–59 region while repeatedly failing to generate meaningful directional follow-through. Price has recently reclaimed the 14-period and 50-period SMAs, which have begun flattening—a typical hallmark of a market transitioning from trend to range behaviour. The 200-period SMA near USD 60 now acts as an overhead pivot rather than directional resistance, with price oscillating around it in a low-volatility structure. Although price formed higher lows in the past sessions, the Stochastic Momentum Index shows a sharp series of lower highs, creating a bearish divergence that warns that upward momentum is fading even as price attempts to stabilise. This suggests that while the market is no longer in a clear downtrend on the 4H timeframe, upside attempts may lack durability until momentum resets. Immediate resistance lies at USD 61, followed by USD 64, a more significant swing level that aligns with June–July congestion. A break below USD 58 would signal renewed downside pressure, exposing USD 56 as the next key support. Given the neutral but weakening momentum profile, traders seeking to trade within the developing range may target USD 64 on the upside or USD 56 on the downside, with a recommended stop loss above USD 61.50 for bearish setups or below USD 57.50 for bullish setups.

Monday 8th December

On the daily chart, the longer-term structure remains neutral to bearish after a prolonged decline from the 2022 peak above 120, with price now grinding sideways around 60 and still struggling to reclaim the 200-day SMA (green) near 65, which acts as major overhead resistance and the key dividing line between bull and bear phases. The 14-day and 50-day SMAs (blue and pink) are clustered around 60, reflecting a lack of strong directional conviction and highlighting this zone as short-term equilibrium. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits around 38.9%, rising from earlier sub-zero readings, which signals improving momentum and a modest bullish divergence versus price, as the SMI has made higher lows while price has held roughly flat around 56–58; this often precedes a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend. Immediate resistance is therefore placed at 65.00, where the 200-day SMA and a prior swing high converge, followed by 72.00 as the next upside target if buyers can force a sustained close above the long-term average. On the downside, first support lies near 56.00, the recent trading floor and location of multiple reaction lows, with a deeper, more strategic support zone around 50.00, where prior capitulation lows were formed. From a trading perspective, the bias is for a range-bound to mildly corrective rebound toward 65.00 while the SMI continues higher, but the dominant trend remains fragile below the 200-day SMA; any long exposure should therefore carry a protective stop just below 56.00 to manage the risk of a renewed leg lower.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral but mildly bullish short-term outlook, with price attempting to base above recent lows after a sharp decline from the June spike toward 76. Price is currently trading around 59.1, almost exactly in line with the 50-period SMA, indicating a developing consolidation zone, while the 200-period SMA (green) slopes down above price near 61–62, acting as the primary ceiling that must be reclaimed for a more robust trend reversal. The SMI around 33.3% is rising from negative territory, suggesting a short-term upswing in momentum and hinting at positive divergence versus the late-October/early-November lows near 56, where momentum was weaker even though price revisited similar levels. This setup often favours a rebound toward nearby resistance, with initial resistance at 60.00, corresponding to the upper edge of the recent range, and a secondary target at 64.00, close to the prior intraday swing highs. On the downside, 57.00 is the first support, marking the most recent higher low, with 56.00 as a critical floor; a break below 56.00 would negate the emerging bullish divergence and reopen the path toward the broader daily downtrend. Short-term traders may look for tactical longs on dips toward 57.00–58.00 while the SMI trends higher, targeting 60.00 then 64.00, with a tight stop below 56.00 to respect the still-dominant medium-term downtrend.

Friday 5th December

The daily timeframe shows a clear bearish longer-term bias, as price continues to trade below the 14-day (blue), 50-day (pink), and 200-day (green) SMAs, with all three moving averages either flat or sloping downward—confirming sustained selling pressure and absence of trend reversal. Price has struggled to reclaim the 200-day SMA for nearly a year, signalling that rallies remain corrective rather than impulsive. Currently, WTI is attempting to stabilise around 59–60, but the SMI is showing positive momentum divergence—the indicator has turned up from oversold levels while price retests the same lows—often an early warning that bearish momentum may be fading, though not yet reversed. Immediate resistance is seen at 60.02, where the 50-day SMA and prior failed rallies converge, and above that 66.00 marks the next major swing high. Key support sits at 57.00, the level repeatedly tested throughout 2024–2025, with a breakdown exposing 54.00, which aligns with the lower boundary of the multi-year base. Until price closes decisively above 62.50, the dominant structure remains bearish. A protective stop for short positions should sit above 66.00, which would invalidate the prevailing downtrend.

The 4-hour timeframe shows a neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook, with price trading just under the 200-period SMA and failing to generate higher highs. The recent rally toward 60 has been met with consistent selling near the 50-period SMA, showing that short-term momentum remains capped and sellers remain active at every recovery attempt. The 200-period SMA is trending downward, underscoring the prevailing short-term weakness. The SMI, however, shows higher lows while price prints equal or lower lows, indicating a developing bullish divergence that may support a temporary bounce—but this signal is occurring within a broader downtrend, limiting its reliability. Immediate resistance is at 58.95, which coincides with the declining 50-period SMA and the upper boundary of the recent micro-range; a break above this would open the way to 63.00, the key decision point where the trend could shift toward neutral. Support sits at 58.00, the recent swing low, followed by 56.50, a structural level visible on both timeframes that would confirm renewed bearish continuation if broken. Short-term stops for tactical long attempts should be placed below 58.00, while trend-following shorts should use a stop above 63.00, where the short-term downtrend becomes invalidated.