WTI OIL

23 Oct 2025
WTI Oil: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral / slightly Bearish

Resistance

66.07 then 66.00

Support

62.60 then 56.00

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Resistance

61.91 then 66.00

Support

59.00 then 58.34

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral / slightly Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish


Thursday 23rd October

The daily picture shows price still structurally below the long-term moving average (the 200-day, 66.1) which keeps the longer-term bias cautious — rallies should be treated as supply until price sustainably clears that 200-day area. The 50-day (62.6) and the faster short MA (59–60) are clustered under current price and are now acting as the first line of support; those levels are meaningful for trend-followers because a daily close back below the 50-day would open the path to the prior swing lows around 56.0. Momentum on the daily (Stochastic/Momentum) has turned up from a shallow trough, indicating a short covering / mean-reversion attempt rather than a confirmed trend reversal — and there are signs of prior downside momentum not fully exhausted (daily highs were unable to push price above the 200-day). Trading plan: prefer a neutral-to-defensive stance on longer-term longs until price closes convincingly above the 200-day (66.1) — a breakout above that level targets the next supply band near 67.0. If initiating a trend trade to the long side, use a stop below the 50-day (62.6) to limit risk; for short bias, a failed test of 61.9 with rejection and falling stochastic would be the lower-risk entry with a stop just above 62.5.

On the 4-hour timeframe the market has staged a clear bounce — price has crossed above the short and intermediate SMAs and printed higher intraday lows, which gives a short-term bullish edge. However the 4-hour Stochastic is well into overbought territory (mid-70s), signalling the current impulse may be extended and vulnerable to a corrective leg or consolidation. There is no clean bullish divergence on the 4-hour; instead the rapid run has produced stretched momentum readings — that increases the probability of a shallow pullback to the 59.0–58.4 zone before continuation. Trading plan: momentum traders can look for continuation on a clean break and hold above 61.9 with an initial target at 66.0 and a tight trailing stop; swing traders wanting to join the move should prefer to buy a dip into the 59.0–58.4 support band (where moving averages converge) with a protective stop a few ticks below 58.0. Conversely, short-term sellers can fade a clear rejection under the 61.9 area with a stop above 62.5 and a target into the 59–58.4 support region.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral / slightly Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Wednesday 22nd October

The daily chart shows a down-sloping moving-average structure with price trading below the short (14) SMA (≈59.52), the medium (50) SMA (≈62.63) and well below the 200-day SMA (≈66.16), which is a textbook sign that the longer-term bias is to the downside. Price has been making lower highs and lower lows over the past months and the 50 and 200 SMAs are both sloping lower, so rallies should be treated as supply (selling) opportunities unless price decisively reclaims those moving averages. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -48.7% and has shown a modest lift while price has tried to stabilise — a faint short-term bullish divergence that suggests momentum is easing from deeply bearish readings, but it is not yet strong enough to overturn the structural downtrend. Resistance: 62.63 (50-day SMA, first supply) then 66.16 (200-day SMA, stronger structural resistance). Support: 55.00 (recent swing low / obvious demand zone) then 52.50 (next lower support area). Trading plan: maintain a bearish bias — prefer short entries on weak rallies that fail beneath 58.44 with an initial target near 55.00 and a secondary target toward 52.50; place stops for shorts above the failed-rally high or above 62.02 if trying to hold a larger conviction. If you want to buy the bounce, wait for a clear reclaim and daily close above 58.44 (with Stochastic moving into mid-range) and keep a tight protective stop just below the recent low (54.75–55.00) because the moving-average structure still warns of further downside.

On the 4-hour chart the move has paused and staged a small recovery: price is around the mid-50s, the 14-period SMA (57.45) and 50-period SMA (58.44) sit overhead and are the first thresholds to test, while the 200-period (≈62.02) remains well above and still confirms the broader downtrend. The Stochastic MI has moved up from deeply oversold and sits in the high-teens to high-20s, which supports a short-term mean-reversion bounce — importantly, this is a momentum relief rally rather than a confirmed trend reversal because the shorter SMAs are still below the 50 and 200 SMAs. Resistance: 58.44 (50-period SMA / first supply) then 60.00–62.02 (zone capped by the 200-period SMA). Support: 55.00 (intraday demand) then 52.50 (deeper support). Trading plan: consider small, tactical long positions only on a clear 4-hour bullish signal (eg. 4-hour close above the 14-period SMA with Stochastic rising toward mid-range) with a tight stop under 55.00 and an initial target at 58.44; alternatively, look to sell any strong rejection off 58.44 with stops just above the swing high — keep position sizes modest because the higher-timeframe trend remains bearish and momentum can roll over quickly.


Tuesday 21st October

The daily chart shows WTI trading beneath the short, medium and long simple moving averages — a classic bearish alignment that signals the trend is to the downside; the 14-day SMA (≈59.7) is the nearest dynamic resistance and the 50-day (≈62.7) and 200-day (≈66.3) mark progressively stronger supply zones where sellers are likely to reassert. Momentum on the daily Stochastic Momentum Index sits deep in oversold territory (around −62.78%), which both warns of short-term exhaustion and removes conviction for aggressive shorting — oversold readings increase the probability of a corrective bounce — however the absence of a clear bullish reversal pattern and the price’s failure to reclaim the 14-day SMA keep the medium-term bias bearish. Trading plan: the high-probability edge is to favour short exposure on rallies into the 14–50 SMA band (target the 56.00–54.00 support area) with a stop above the 50-day SMA (≈63 if using market noise buffer). If price instead reclaims and closes above the 14 and then 50 SMA convincingly, reassess bias for a possible trend change.

The 4-hour chart shows the short-term downtrend but with the Stochastic Momentum Index lifting from deep oversold levels (SMI 14.49%), signalling momentum is starting to recover even while price remains below the moving averages — this creates a setup for a corrective bounce rather than an immediate trend reversal. There is evidence of a shallow bullish divergence on the 4-hour (price testing/printing marginally lower lows while SMI makes a higher low), which increases the odds of a counter-trend retracement back toward the 57.3–59.0 area; traders can either (a) take a tactically sized long for a fade into that resistance band with a tight stop below 56.00 for a quick mean-reversion trade, or (b) wait for a failed bounce into the 58.9–62.7 zone to add/enter short with a stop above the 50-period resistance. A decisive break below 54.50 would remove the short-term relief view and target lower structural support; a sustained break above the 50-period MA would be required to shift the short-term bias back to bullish.


Monday 20th October

The daily chart shows a clear downtrend: price is trading below the 14, 50 and 200 SMAs with the 200-day well overhead, which identifies the medium/longer-term bias as downside. The shorter SMAs (14 and 50) are sloping lower and the 14 is below the 50, confirming momentum is to the downside. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits in deep oversold territory but is showing an early uptick; this suggests the current move is most likely a short-covering bounce rather than a sustainable reversal — there is no convincing daily-scale bullish divergence to argue the trend has changed. Trading plan: favour the downside on strength — look to sell rallies toward the 50-day SMA (62.84) with a tight protective stop above the 62.38 area; alternatively, contrarian buyers should wait for a reclaim of the 50-day and then the 200-day with improving SMI before adding risk. Place trend stop-losses under the recent low (57.08) if attempting to hold a long.

On the 4-hour chart the market has bounced from the recent low and the 14-period SMA is attempting to flatten, producing a short-term relief rally; the Stochastic MI has moved up from deeply oversold levels (15.47%) which supports a near-term bounce. That said the price remains below the key daily SMAs and the 200-period on the 4-hour is still overhead, so momentum above is fragile. There is a hint of a minor bullish momentum divergence on the 4-hour (SMI recovering while price made a marginal lower low), which explains the bounce, but this is insufficient to negate the primary daily downtrend. Tactical rules: shorters can sell into clear 4-hour rallies toward 59.6 with a stop just above 62.4; short-term buyers can trade the bounce using a tight stop under 56.8–57.0 and target the 59.6 area for a quick scalp, but avoid holding longs unless price can break and hold above the 50-day SMA with confirming SMI strength.


Friday 17th October

Price is trading below the 14, 50 and 200 SMAs (current: price 57.42, 14-SMA 60.38, 50-SMA 62.98, 200-SMA 66.47) which is a classic structural bearish alignment — the SMAs are stacked and sloping down, signalling the medium/longer-term trend remains to the downside. Resistance: 60.38 (14-SMA / first overhead supply), then 62.98 (50-SMA / nearer-term trend resistance), then 62.65–66.47 (50/200 band and structural supply). Support: 57.42 (today’s low / immediate floor), then a logical next support cluster around the round 55.00 area (psychological / prior congestion) and a deeper structural support zone nearer 52.50 if selling accelerates. The Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply oversold which increases the chance of a technical rebound, but there is no clear bullish divergence yet (price is making lower levels while the oscillator remains depressed) so oversold readings are signalling exhaustion risk rather than a confirmed reversal. Trading idea: keep a bearish bias until price recaptures the 50-SMA; shorters can target a move to 55.00 with an initial stop above the 14-SMA (suggested stop 60.75 to allow noise). Nimble longs should wait for the stochastic to turn up and price to hold above the 14-SMA (or better, the 50-SMA) before risking entries — place protective stops below the recent low 57.10–57.00.

On the 4-hour the same bearish structure is visible: price 57.42 sits under the 14-period (58.44), 50-period (60.26) and 200-period (62.65) SMAs. Resistance: 58.44 (14-period SMA / immediate), then 60.26 (50-period SMA), then 62.65 (200-period). Support: 57.42 (current low / immediate), then 56.00–55.00 (near-term congestion / psychological), then 52.50 (deeper support). The 4-hour Stochastic is deeply oversold and hugging lows — that means short-term sellers may be exhausted and a bounce into the 14-SMA is the most likely near-term path. Look for a low-risk long only on (a) a clear bullish cross on the stochastic or (b) price holding 57.40 and showing a clean reclaim of the 14-SMA; place stops just below the recent low (suggested stop 57.00). For traders wanting to trade the trend, a breakdown below 57.00 with follow-through opens a clearer shorting opportunity toward 55.00 with a stop back above the 14-SMA (suggested stop 58.80).

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