Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish 

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Thursday 14th May

The daily chart maintains a firmly bullish longer-term bias as WTI Crude Oil trades at 101.124, holding above the psychologically significant 100.00 level and well above both the 50-day TMA (yellow) at 97.852 and the 200-day TMA (green) at 70.786, a moving average alignment that classically confirms a strong primary uptrend — when price trades above all key moving averages in ascending order, it signals broad-based participation in the trend across all time horizons. The price structure is particularly impressive given the magnitude of the rally from the 60.00 region in late 2025 through to the current 100+ range, a move driven by sustained demand that has left the 200-day TMA far below at 70.786, indicating the long-term trend foundation remains unambiguously intact. Price is currently consolidating just below the 14-day TMA (red) at 102.304, which has shifted from acting as dynamic support during the rally phase to now serving as immediate resistance during this short-term corrective pause — a reclaim of 102.30 on a daily closing basis would be the most critical near-term trigger for the next leg higher. The SMI is currently reading -1.877 with its signal line at 0.607, placing both lines in the neutral-to-mildly-oversold zone after having rolled down from overbought readings above +40 seen during the April rally peak — this cooling of momentum is healthy and expected following a prolonged advance, as it resets the indicator from overextended conditions without the price structure deteriorating materially. Crucially, there is a constructive divergence developing: while the SMI has pulled back to near-zero, price has not made any meaningful breakdown below the 50-day TMA at 97.852, meaning sellers have been unable to capitalize on the momentum fade — this is a bullish divergence signal that suggests the underlying demand structure remains robust and the correction is likely shallow rather than the beginning of a trend reversal. The immediate resistance is the 14-day TMA at 102.30, and above that the 110.00 level represents the next major supply zone corresponding to the March highs where significant selling was previously encountered. On the downside, the 50-day TMA at 97.852 is the critical support to defend; a daily close below this level would shift the intermediate bias to neutral and expose the 90.00 psychological and structural support zone. Traders with a bullish bias should look to enter on pullbacks toward 99.00–100.00, targeting a move toward 110.00, with a protective stop loss placed on a daily close below 97.00 to account for TMA proximity and avoid being stopped out by normal volatility.

The 4-hour chart presents a neutral short-term outlook as price action compresses into a tight cluster around all three moving averages, creating a classic equilibrium zone that signals the market is in a decision-making phase ahead of the next directional move. Price is trading at 101.166, effectively sandwiched between the 14-period TMA (red) at 101.519 above and the 200-period TMA (green) at 100.057 and 50-period TMA (yellow) at 100.502 below, with all three averages converging within a roughly 1.5-point range — this type of moving average compression, where multiple timeframe averages collapse toward each other, is a powerful precursor to a volatility expansion and breakout, and the direction of that breakout will define the next 5–8% move in price. The 200-period TMA at 100.057 is particularly significant on the 4-hour chart because it has risen aggressively from below 65.00 in early 2026 and now sits at the psychologically critical 100.00 handle, making it a dual-layered support confluence of technical moving average support and round-number psychology — a sustained hold above this level is essential to maintaining the short-term bullish structure. The 14-period TMA at 101.519 is the immediate cap, and notably price has struggled to post a clean 4-hour close above it over recent sessions, indicating that bears are defending this level with conviction in the near term. The SMI on the 4-hour chart is reading 41.132 with the signal line at 48.961, both in the upper half of the neutral zone approaching the overbought threshold near +50, having recovered strongly from oversold readings near -50 seen in early May — this momentum recovery from deeply oversold conditions is a constructive sign that buyers stepped in at the 98.00 support area aggressively. However, with the SMI signal line now at 48.961 and approaching potential overbought territory, there is a risk of a short-term stall or minor pullback if price attempts to push higher without first consolidating the recent momentum recovery; the fact that the SMI line at 41.132 is trailing below the signal line at 48.961 suggests momentum may be starting to moderate slightly, warranting caution on aggressive upside bets at current levels. The immediate resistance on the 4-hour timeframe is the 14-period TMA at 101.52, above which 104.00 represents the next prior swing high and supply cluster. Support is anchored at the 200-period TMA of 100.057, reinforced by the 100.00 psychological level, with deeper support at 98.00 where buyers previously emerged during the May pullback. Traders should await a decisive 4-hour close above 101.52 to initiate longs targeting 104.00, with a stop loss set on a 4-hour close below 99.80 to protect against a breakdown through the critical 100.00 support confluence.

                                       Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Wednesday 13th May

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a firmly bullish longer-term bias following an extraordinary parabolic advance from the mid-60s in late 2025 to a peak near 120.00 in early March 2026, and price is currently consolidating at 102.43 in a healthy corrective phase that is respecting key moving average support rather than breaking down beneath it. The structural integrity of the bull trend is confirmed by the bullish alignment of all three moving averages: the 14-day moving average (red line) at 102.14 is providing immediate dynamic support just beneath current price, the 50-day moving average (yellow line) at 97.38 sits as the next meaningful support layer representing the higher-low floor of this consolidation range, and the 200-day moving average (green line) at 70.62 — still rising steeply — anchors the macro uptrend and remains far below current price levels, underscoring the sheer magnitude of the structural bull move. The current consolidation between approximately 95.00 and 105.00 following the March peak is a classic high-level range compression, where price digests the vertical advance before determining its next directional impulse. The Stochastic Momentum Index is the most telling element of the current setup: the SMI main line (blue) reads 2.039 while the signal line (orange) reads 4.378, placing both in the neutral zero zone after a deep washout from the overbought extreme near +80 that accompanied the March rally peak — crucially, this reset to neutral from overbought without a corresponding breakdown in price constitutes a constructive momentum recalibration rather than a bearish divergence, as price has held well above the 50-day moving average at 97.38 throughout the SMI correction. This pattern — price holding firm while momentum resets to neutral — is a hallmark of accumulation within an established uptrend and often precedes the next leg higher. The immediate overhead resistance is at 105.00, a round-number psychological barrier and the upper boundary of the current consolidation range, followed by the more significant supply zone near 110.00 where the April secondary peak formed. A daily close above 105.00 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and open a path toward 110.00 and ultimately a retest of the 120.00 all-time high. Traders with a bullish bias should target 105.00 initially with a stop loss on a daily close below 95.00, which would represent a break of the consolidation range floor and invalidate the bullish thesis.

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil reinforces the bullish short-term outlook as price has reclaimed all three moving averages following a sharp but shallow dip to the low 90s in late April, with the recovery rally demonstrating convincing momentum that has now placed price at 102.47 — above the 14-period moving average (red line) at 100.28, the 50-period moving average (yellow line) at 101.04, and the 200-period moving average (green line) at 99.83 — a full bullish moving average stack reclamation that signals a decisive shift in short-term market control back to the bulls. The convergence of all three moving averages within an approximately 1.20-point band between 99.83 and 101.04 creates a dense and highly significant support cluster just beneath current price; this zone acted as resistance during the April pullback and its conversion to support on the recent bounce is a textbook support-resistance flip, lending strong technical credibility to the current recovery. The Stochastic Momentum Index on the 4-hour frame is the most compelling element of the current technical picture: with the SMI main line (blue) surging to 79.696 and the signal line (orange) at 78.150, both are deep in overbought territory — however, critically, rather than reading this as a contrarian sell signal, the context matters enormously here, as the prior SMI cycle bottomed near -60 in late April during the price trough, and the current overbought reading is occurring on strong expanding price action with the SMI line above its signal line, indicating the overbought condition reflects genuine bullish momentum rather than exhaustion. The absence of a bearish divergence — where price would make higher highs while SMI makes lower highs — further validates the continuation thesis. Immediate resistance is at 105.00, aligning with the daily chart resistance and the upper boundary of the multi-week consolidation range, with a breakout targeting 108.00 where the early May swing high provides the next reference point. Short-term pullbacks toward the moving average cluster at 99.83–101.04 should be treated as buying opportunities within the broader bullish structure, and traders should maintain long positions with a stop loss on a 4-hour close below 99.50, which would represent a clean break beneath the entire moving average support cluster and signal a potential false breakout scenario requiring reassessment.

Tuesday 12th May

The daily chart for US Crude Oil (WTI Cash) presents a neutral longer-term bias as price consolidates within a volatile range following the explosive rally from the mid-60s in late January 2026 to the peak near 120.00 in late February/early March — a move that represented an extraordinary parabolic advance that has since entered a corrective and distribution phase. Currently trading at 99.013, price is sandwiched between the 14-period TMA at 101.685 (red) acting as immediate dynamic resistance from above and the 50-period TMA at 96.754 (yellow) providing near-term dynamic support from below, while the 200-period TMA at 70.431 (green) continues its gradual upward slope far beneath current price, confirming the macro structural trend remains bullish but offering no near-term guidance for short-term positioning. The price action since the March peak has been characterized by a series of lower highs and volatile swings — a classic post-parabolic distribution pattern where prior buyers take profit and new directional conviction is difficult to establish, explaining the neutral classification. The Stochastic Momentum Index is the critical analytical element here: currently reading -6.083 on the fast line with the signal at 3.181, the SMI has crossed back below neutral from a recent recovery attempt, indicating that the bounce from the early May lows near 88–90 has lost momentum before achieving meaningful overbought levels — this failure to sustain above the SMI midpoint is a bearish signal within the broader neutral framework, suggesting that the corrective pressure has not fully resolved and another leg lower or extended consolidation remains the path of least resistance. There is a notable bearish divergence worth flagging: while price made a secondary high in mid-April comparable to the March peak at the 110–115 zone, the SMI’s corresponding peak was materially lower than its February/March reading, confirming weakening momentum at higher prices and justifying a cautious stance. Immediate resistance lies at the 14-period TMA near 101.69, with a more significant barrier at the 105.00 psychological level and prior swing highs; a daily close above 105.00 would suggest the correction has exhausted and shift the bias back toward bullish, targeting a retest of the 110–115 region. Support is found at the 50-period TMA near 96.75, a breach of which on a closing basis would expose the 90.00 round-number level and ultimately the 80.00 area. Traders should avoid aggressive directional positioning until price resolves its range, with any long entries above 101.69 requiring a stop loss below 96.00 to manage the risk of a renewed corrective decline.

The 4-hour chart for US Crude Oil refines the short-term picture to a neutral outlook as price trades in a compressed consolidation zone between the three converging TMA levels — the 14-period TMA at 98.012 (red), the 200-period TMA at 99.459 (green), and the 50-period TMA at 101.869 (yellow) — all clustering tightly around the current price of 99.038, a configuration that signals maximum indecision and the absence of a dominant short-term trend direction. This TMA compression is technically significant because it typically precedes a directional breakout, and the resolution of this compression will likely define the next meaningful 5–8 point move in either direction. The price has been oscillating between approximately 95.00 and 108.00 on the 4-hour timeframe since the March peak, forming a series of rotational swings without establishing a clear directional bias — each rally toward the upper range has been met with selling and each dip toward the lower range has attracted buyers, consistent with a balanced market awaiting a catalyst. The SMI on the 4-hour chart currently reads 52.873 on the fast line with the signal at 50.559, sitting precisely at the neutral midpoint — the fact that both lines are stacked just above zero and the fast line is crossing above the signal line from below is a mildly constructive signal suggesting the most recent bounce from the ~95 lows in early May has nascent upside momentum, but the position so close to neutral rather than a strong oversold launch point means conviction is limited. Critically, this SMI configuration is consistent with the mid-range price location: neither overbought nor oversold, simply drifting at the midpoint alongside the price’s midrange positioning, which reinforces the neutral framework rather than providing a directional trading edge. For short-term traders, the key battleground is the 200-period TMA at 99.459 — price needs to hold above this level to maintain any bullish short-term aspirations, while a failure to hold 99.459 on a 4-hour close would suggest the 50-period TMA at 101.869 will continue capping rallies and direct price back toward the 96–95 support zone. Upside resistance is defined by the 50-period TMA at 101.87, beyond which the 105.00 level represents major resistance; downside support sits at the 200-period TMA near 99.46 and then the 14-period TMA at 98.01. Traders should wait for a confirmed 4-hour close either above 102.00 or below 98.00 before establishing directional positions, using the respective breakout level as a stop loss reference to avoid being caught in the choppy midrange whipsaws.

Monday 11th May

The daily chart for US Crude Oil West Texas presents a neutral longer-term bias as price trades at 99.578, caught in a technically significant zone between the declining 14-day moving average (red line) at 101.474 above and the rising 50-day moving average (yellow line) at 96.204 below — a narrowing band that reflects the compression of a market digesting the extraordinary parabolic rally from the January 2026 lows near 60.00 to the March peak above 120.00. The 200-day moving average (green line) at 70.289 remains far below current price but continues to rise, confirming the macro structural bull trend that launched aggressively from late 2025; however, the sustained inability of price to reclaim and hold above the 14-day moving average at 101.474 following the sharp April corrective sell-off signals that intermediate-term sellers remain active and that the trend has transitioned from impulsive to corrective. The 101.474 level also aligns with a visible horizontal support-turned-resistance zone visible on the daily chart derived from prior congestion in late March, reinforcing its significance as the key pivot that bulls must reclaim to reassert control. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is the critical element informing the neutral classification: the fast line currently sits at 2.596 with the signal line at 12.777, and while both lines are recovering from the deeply oversold trough registered in late April near -40, the fast line has not yet crossed above the signal line — this pending bullish cross from near-oversold territory is a constructive setup suggesting downside momentum is fading, but confirmation of the cross is required before a directional long bias can be adopted with confidence. A decisive close above 101.474 would shift the bias bullish and open the path to 110.00, representing the next major resistance cluster from the April highs; conversely, a failure of the 50-day moving average at 96.204 would expose the 90.00 psychological level and ultimately the broader corrective target zone near 85.00. Traders should use 95.50 as a stop loss reference for long positions initiated on a confirmed SMI bullish cross, while short-side participants should place stops above 102.00.

The 4-hour chart for US Crude Oil shifts to a bullish short-term outlook as price at 99.588 has reclaimed and is testing the 200-period moving average (green line) at 99.254 from above — a technically meaningful development given that this key long-term moving average had been acting as resistance during the corrective phase from the April highs, and its recapture on a closing basis signals a potential regime shift back in favour of buyers. The moving average structure on this timeframe is transitioning constructively: price is now above the 200-period MA at 99.254, with the next challenge being the declining 50-period moving average (yellow line) at 102.544, which represents the immediate overhead barrier that must be cleared to confirm the recovery thesis, while the 14-period moving average (red line) at 96.495 has crossed below the 200-period MA and remains lower — indicating that while the most recent momentum was bearish, the current price recovery above the 200-period MA is beginning to challenge that bearish structure. Crucially, the SMI on the 4-hour chart provides the most decisive signal: following a sharp drop to deeply oversold levels near -50 in late April and early May, the fast line has now bounced aggressively to 18.318 and crossed above the signal line at 5.860, generating a confirmed bullish SMI cross from oversold territory — this momentum signal is significant because it occurred from extreme negative territory, historically associated with exhaustion of selling pressure and the initiation of recovery moves. The bullish SMI cross, combined with the price reclaiming the 200-period moving average, creates a technically aligned setup for further upside. The immediate resistance target is the 50-period moving average at 102.544, a level that also corresponds with a prior congestion area; a clean break above 102.544 opens the path toward 107.00, representing the next structural resistance derived from the late April lower highs. Support is defined by the 200-period moving average at 99.254, and a breach of that level on a closing basis would invalidate the bullish setup and expose the 14-period moving average at 96.495 as the next support. Traders should set a stop loss below 98.50, just beneath the 200-period moving average, to protect long positions while targeting 102.54 initially and 107.00 on a sustained extension.

Friday 8th May

The daily chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a neutral longer-term bias as price at 98.50 finds itself caught in a significant technical squeeze between key moving average levels following an extraordinary parabolic rally from the mid-60s in late 2025 to a peak exceeding 120.00 in early March 2026. Price is currently trading below the 14-day moving average (red line) at 101.195, which has crossed below its recent highs and is now acting as immediate dynamic resistance — a structurally bearish signal in isolation — while sitting above the 50-day moving average (yellow line) at 95.613, which is rising steeply and providing crucial medium-term support; the relationship between these two moving averages defines the current neutral battleground. The 200-day moving average (green line) at 70.160 remains far below current price and continues to slope upward, confirming that the macro secular trend remains firmly bullish even as the shorter-term corrective forces dominate near-term price action. The Stochastic Momentum Index is particularly revealing in this context — reading 15.835 on the main line with the signal at 25.113, the SMI has pulled back from elevated overbought readings seen during the March peak and has now settled into neutral-to-mildly-oversold territory, with the signal line above the main line suggesting continued mild downward pressure on momentum; however, the absence of a deeply oversold reading means there is no compelling contrarian buy signal yet, reinforcing the neutral classification. A bullish crossover of the SMI lines from current levels would be a meaningful trigger for long re-entry, targeting the immediate resistance at 101.20 where the 14-day moving average converges with prior consolidation, and beyond that the 105.00 psychological and technical resistance zone. Conversely, a daily close below the 50-day moving average at 95.61 would materially shift the bias bearish, exposing the 90.00 level as the next significant support. Traders should maintain a stop loss below 95.61 on any long positions to protect against a structural breakdown of the medium-term trend.

The 4-hour chart for WTI Crude Oil confirms a bearish short-term outlook as price at 98.394 is trading below both the 50-period moving average (yellow line) at 103.067 and the 200-period moving average (green line) at 99.259, with both averages now sloping downward — a configuration known as bearish moving average alignment that signals sellers are in control of near-term price structure. The recent price action has seen a clear sequence of lower highs since the March peak above 120.00, and the most recent attempted rally in early May failed precisely at the 200-period moving average near 99.259, which rejected price cleanly and sent it back toward the 14-period moving average (red line) at 97.741 — this failure at the 200-period average is technically significant as it confirms that what was previously support has transformed into a reliable resistance ceiling, a classic polarity reversal principle. The SMI at -16.891 with its signal line at -26.225 reflects that selling momentum is active, with the main line above the signal line in negative territory suggesting the downward momentum may be at an interim pause rather than exhaustion — importantly, this is not yet deeply oversold enough to warrant contrarian positioning, as prior SMI troughs in this instrument have extended closer to -50 before meaningful reversals materialized, leaving room for further downside. The layered resistance structure between 99.26 and 103.07 is formidable, and traders should treat any intraday rallies into this zone as potential short entry opportunities rather than recovery signals. Immediate support rests at the 14-period moving average at 97.741, and a break below this level on a closing basis exposes the 95.00 area — a technically significant level aligning with prior consolidation and the rising 50-day moving average on the daily chart. A stop loss above 99.26, just beyond the 200-period moving average, is recommended for short positions to manage risk against a potential false breakout to the upside.