9 Oct 2026 Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Friday 9th October
The daily chart keeps a bullish longer-term bias. WTI at 92.64 trades above both the 50-day moving average (yellow) at 90.31 and the 200-day moving average (green) at 84.70, and both averages are rising. The 50-day sits comfortably above the 200-day, an alignment that confirms the intermediate and long-term trends are pointing the same way. Since the early-July low near 68, the market has built a clear sequence of higher lows (about 75 in early August and 80 in late August) and a higher high near 107 in mid-September, which is the textbook definition of an uptrend. The current pullback from that peak has unwound to the rising 50-day, and in a healthy uptrend this average often acts as dynamic support, meaning the level where dip-buyers tend to step in. The 14-day moving average (red) at 93.91 is the immediate overhead hurdle, and a close back above it would signal that the correction has run its course. Beyond that, the late-September lower high near 100 is the key resistance, followed by the September peak at 107. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits in oversold territory at -56.21 (signal line -60.59), and the blue line has just crossed above the orange line, an early bullish crossover. There is also a hidden bullish divergence: price has made a higher low near 89.5, well above the August lows, while the SMI has dropped to a lower trough than it reached in August. This pattern suggests the pullback has fully washed out short-term momentum without damaging the price structure, and it typically precedes a resumption of the dominant uptrend. Traders can look to buy dips into the 89.50–90.30 zone, targeting 100 initially and 107 on an extension. A stop loss belongs below 87.50, beneath the 50-day and the recent swing lows, because a daily close below that level would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 200-day at 84.70.
The 4-hour chart carries a bearish short-term outlook, framing the current setup as a final leg of the correction rather than a new trend. Since the mid-September peak near 107, price has carved out lower highs at roughly 100, 96 and most recently 95, where this week’s spike was quickly rejected. Price at 92.64 is wedged between the 14-period moving average (red) at 92.17 and the 50-period moving average (yellow) at 92.91, and it remains below the 200-period moving average (green) at 93.87. The 50-period has now slipped beneath the 200-period, a bearish crossover that signals short-term momentum has turned weaker than the broader trend on this timeframe. The 200-period average has also flattened and now caps rallies. The Stochastic Momentum Index reached around 60 on the latest bounce and has rolled over to 40.27, crossing below its signal line at 44.62 just as it re-enters the neutral band. That bearish crossover from overbought readings points to fading upside momentum. It is reinforced by a hidden bearish divergence, in which the SMI’s latest peak is higher than its early-October peak while price posted a lower high. This pattern indicates that even strong momentum readings are failing to lift price above prior highs, which typically comes before another leg lower within a downtrend. Immediate resistance is the 200-period average at 93.90, followed by the 95.50 rejection high. The downside target is 89.50, the recent swing low and confluence with the daily 50-day support, with a further objective at 88.00 if that level gives way. Short-term traders can sell rallies toward 93.90 with a stop loss above 95.50, while recognising that the 89.50–88.00 zone is where the daily uptrend is likely to reassert itself. That makes it a logical area to take profits and watch for a bullish reversal signal on the SMI.
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Thursday 8th October
The daily chart keeps a bullish longer-term bias, although WTI crude is in a meaningful correction that now tests a key support. At 90.82, price sits just above the 50-day moving average at 90.16 (yellow) and well above the 200-day at 84.51 (green). Both averages are rising, which confirms that the medium- and long-term trends still point higher, and the 50-day is the first dynamic support that trend-following buyers typically defend in a healthy uptrend. Price has, however, slipped below the 14-day average at 94.00 (red), which has turned lower and now caps rebounds. That shift shows short-term momentum has passed to sellers during the pullback. The broader structure is still constructive. Since the early-July low near 69, crude has printed higher lows near 75 in early August and around 82 to 86 in late August, along with higher highs from roughly 94 in late July to 107 in mid-September. The current decline therefore looks like a retracement within an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) reads –69.93 against its signal line at –68.37, firmly in oversold territory. This means the pullback has been sharp enough to stretch downside momentum to levels that have preceded rebounds, as in late June and early August. It also shows a hidden bullish divergence. Price is holding a higher low near 90, well above the August low near 75, while the SMI has fallen to a lower low than its August trough. Hidden divergence of this kind typically signals that a pullback is exhausting within an existing trend and that the trend is likely to resume. The SMI line is still below its signal line, though, so confirmation needs a bullish crossover alongside a daily close back above the 14-day average at 94.00. Above that, the late-September lower high and psychological level at 100.00 is the next upside target, with the 107 September peak the extended objective. Support sits first at the 50-day average at 90.16 and then at 86.00, the late-August consolidation from which the September breakout began. Traders favouring the bullish bias can look for long entries on confirmed stabilisation above 90.16, target 100.00, and place a stop loss below 85.50. That level sits under the 86.00 support but above the rising 200-day average, and a break there would damage the higher-low structure and turn the bias neutral.
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook and frames the current move as a correction working against the daily uptrend. Price at 90.82 trades below all three moving averages: the 14-period at 91.18, the 50-period at 93.37 and the 200-period at 93.67. The 50-period is converging on the 200-period and is on the verge of crossing below it. That bearish crossover would signal that medium-term momentum on this timeframe has turned negative. The tight cluster of the 50- and 200-period averages between 93.37 and 93.67 creates a strong resistance zone where rebounds are likely to meet supply. Since the 107 peak in mid-September, price has formed a clear series of lower highs: near 101 in late September, around 97 in early October and roughly 93 most recently. That is the defining feature of a short-term downtrend. The SMI reads –7.87, below its signal line at –4.93, after rolling over from a modest high near +30. Rallies during this decline have failed to push the SMI into overbought territory, which confirms that buying pressure on each bounce is weak and fading quickly. One mild bullish divergence is forming: the SMI’s early-October troughs are slightly shallower than its late-September low near –75, while price has drifted marginally lower. This suggests the selling is losing intensity as price approaches the daily 50-day support, so downside follow-through may be limited and choppy rather than impulsive. Immediate resistance is the moving-average cluster around 93.50, followed by 97.00, the early-October lower high. Support lies first at the 90.00 psychological level, which aligns with the daily 50-day average, and then at 87.00, the base of the late-August and early-September consolidation. Short positions can be considered on rallies into the 93.50 resistance zone, targeting 90.00 first and 87.00 if that level gives way, with a stop loss above 94.20 to guard against a breakout through the moving-average cluster. Given the oversold daily setup and the developing divergence, traders should take profits actively near 90.00. A 4-hour close above 94.20 would invalidate the bearish view and realign the short-term chart with the bullish daily trend toward 97.00.
Wednesday 7th October
The daily chart keeps a bullish longer-term bias. WTI crude at 91.92 is in an orderly pullback inside an established uptrend rather than a trend reversal. Since the early-July low near 68.00, price has made a clear series of higher highs and higher lows. The rally to roughly 95.00 in late July held a pullback at about 76.00 in early August, right on the 200-day average. That held level then launched the advance to the mid-September peak near 107.00. This staircase of rising peaks and troughs is the textbook definition of an uptrend, and it stays intact while the August low holds. The moving averages support the structure. The 50-day (yellow) at 90.06 and the 200-day (green) at 84.35 are both rising, and the 50-day sits above the 200-day, which confirms medium- and long-term momentum still favors buyers. Price is now testing the 50-day for the first time since the August breakout. A rising 50-day often acts as dynamic support where trend-following buyers re-enter, so the 90.00–90.06 zone, reinforced by the recent intraday low near 89.00, is the line to defend. The 14-day average (red) at 94.75 has rolled over above price, so short-term momentum has cooled. It forms the first resistance, ahead of the late-September lower high around 100.50 and then the 107.00 cycle peak. The Stochastic Momentum Index reads -65.59 against its signal line at -64.92. The SMI measures where the close sits relative to the midpoint of its recent range, and this reading puts it deep in oversold territory below -40. There was no bearish divergence at the September top, since the SMI confirmed the higher price high with a higher momentum peak near +90, so the rally was not losing internal strength when it topped. The current sell-off has driven momentum to oversold while price has only retraced to trend support. That gap between deeply oversold momentum and price still holding its rising 50-day suggests the pullback is mature, and a bullish SMI crossover from here would signal the correction is ending. The preferred strategy is to buy near 90.00–91.00, or on a daily SMI crossover confirmation, with a stop loss at 88.40, below the 89.00 swing low and the 50-day. Targets are 94.75 first, then 100.50, with 107.00 as the extended objective if the trend resumes in full. A daily close below 88.40 would break trend support and expose the 200-day at 84.35, where the August–September consolidation base near 83.00–85.00 offers deeper support.
The 4-hour chart gives a neutral short-term outlook. A developing downtrend in price is now running into bullish momentum signals. Since the 107.00 peak, the 4-hour structure has carved a series of lower highs near 101.00, 100.00 and the early-October bounce high around 97.00. Price has also slipped below both the 50-period average (yellow) at 94.03 and the 200-period average (green) at 93.55. Losing the 200-period average matters because price had held above it since early August, so short-term control has shifted to sellers. The declining 50-period is also converging on the 200-period. A bearish crossover would be a warning sign if price cannot recover quickly, since it would turn both averages into a resistance cluster at 93.55–94.03. Against that, the Stochastic Momentum Index shows a constructive bullish divergence. The latest price dip pushed to a lower low near 89.00, but the SMI bottomed at a slightly higher trough than its late-September and early-October lows near -95. It has since crossed above its signal line, reading -23.95 against -38.07. When price makes a lower low but momentum does not, sellers are losing force at each new extreme, and this often comes before a recovery. That matches price reclaiming the 14-period average (red) at 91.67, which is now immediate support. The tactical approach follows the 93.55–94.03 pivot. A sustained 4-hour close above 94.03 would confirm the divergence, put price back above both key averages and align the short-term chart with the daily uptrend. That opens a move to 97.00 and then 100.00, and long positions should use a stop loss below 90.80, under the 14-period average. If the bounce stalls in the 93.55–94.03 resistance band and the SMI turns lower below the zero line, that would form a lower momentum high and confirm a bear-market rally. In that case expect a retest of the 89.00 swing low, the level that also anchors the daily trend. A break below 89.00 would cancel the divergence and point to the mid-September breakout base near 86.00.
Tuesday 6th October
The daily chart still shows a bullish longer-term structure, and the current weakness looks like a correction within an established uptrend rather than a reversal. WTI crude trades at 91.23. That is below the 14-day moving average at 95.38, which has rolled over and now acts as near-term resistance. It remains above the 50-day at 89.92 and the rising 200-day at 84.18. The order of the two slower averages matters. The 50-day has stayed above the 200-day through the whole summer, and the 200-day is still climbing, so the primary trend is up and dips toward these lines have tended to attract buyers. Price structure supports this. Since the late-June low near 69, crude has built a sequence of higher lows, around 76 in early August and 80 in late August, and that sequence powered the mid-September high near 107. The pullback since then has retraced about 16 dollars, but it has not yet damaged the higher-low pattern. The Stochastic Momentum Index is at −75.24 against its signal line at −67.73. It is in oversold territory, with the blue line still falling below the orange, so near-term momentum remains negative and price may keep pressing toward the 50-day. The key insight is a hidden bullish divergence. The SMI has now fallen below its August trough of roughly −60, while price at 91 is still far above the August low near 76. When an oscillator makes a lower low but price makes a higher low, it usually means the pullback has exhausted momentum without breaking the trend. That pattern typically resolves in the direction of the larger uptrend. Buyers should therefore look for stabilisation around the 50-day average at 89.90, ideally confirmed by an SMI cross back above its signal line. The first upside target is a reclaim of the 14-day at 95.40, followed by the psychological 100.00 level, where the late-September rally failed. A stop loss below the 200-day average at 84.00 protects the position. A daily close beneath that line would break the higher-low structure and invalidate the bullish bias.
The 4-hour chart is bearish in the short term and conflicts with the constructive daily picture. Price at 91.23 sits below all three moving averages: the 14-period at 92.92, the 200-period at 93.41, and the 50-period at 94.75. The most important development is the break below the 200-period average. It had supported the entire rally from early August, and losing it shows that intraday control has passed to sellers. The 50-period is also falling steeply toward the 200-period. If it crosses below, it would complete a short-term “death cross,” a signal that often accelerates selling as trend-following traders reposition. Since the 107 peak, the market has made a clean run of lower highs, near 99, 96, and most recently about 94. Each rally has been capped by the declining 50-period average, which confirms that the line is now dynamic resistance. The Stochastic Momentum Index at −61.19 against −52.72 has rolled over sharply. Its last bounce peaked around +40 and failed to reach overbought territory, which is typical of a corrective rally inside a downtrend, and the bearish crossover points to more near-term downside. There is a nuance that ties back to the daily picture. Price is retesting the late-September low near 90.80, while the SMI is currently well above the roughly −80 trough it printed at that low. If price breaks only marginally below 90.80 while the SMI holds a higher low, that would form a regular bullish divergence and a potential double-bottom base. Such a setup would line up with the daily 50-day support and argue for a reversal. Until that happens, sellers can target 90.80 first. A decisive break below it would open 88.00, the early-September breakout zone, which sits just under the daily 50-day average. A stop loss above 95.00, beyond the 50-period average and the latest lower high, is recommended. Traders should take partial profits near 90.80 to 88.00 because that zone is where the bullish daily divergence is most likely to trigger a rebound.
Monday 5th October
The daily chart shows a neutral longer-term bias: the uptrend from July is still intact, but momentum has cooled sharply. WTI at 92.85 sits in a mixed position relative to its moving averages. It has dropped below the 14-day average (red) at 96.28, which shows near-term momentum has turned against buyers. It still holds above the 50-day (yellow) at 89.72 and the 200-day (green) at 84.02, and both of those are rising, with the 50-day above the 200-day. That alignment keeps the medium- and long-term trend structurally bullish, so the current weakness reads as a correction within an uptrend rather than a confirmed reversal. Price action supports this. Crude bottomed near 69 in late June, made a higher low near 76 in early August, and broke above the late-July high near 95 to peak around 107 in mid-September. That sequence of higher highs and higher lows defines an uptrend. The rally still fell short of the May–April highs at 110–118, the broader ceiling from the March spike. The pullback from 107 has now retraced about half of the August–September advance, and the 14-day average at 96.28 is the first resistance. Above it, 100.00 is the next barrier, a psychological round number that also capped the late-September bounce. On the downside, 89.72 is key support: the 50-day average, close to the 50% retracement of the August rally. Below that, 84.02 at the 200-day average is the long-term trend line. A close beneath it would turn the bias bearish. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has collapsed from overbought near +90 to an oversold -62.32, with the fast line below the signal line at -57.87, so downside momentum is still active. There is, however, a developing hidden bullish divergence: price is holding a much higher low (around 92) than the early-August trough near 76, while the SMI has fallen back to roughly the same oversold depth it reached then. Hidden bullish divergence typically shows up during corrections inside an uptrend and suggests the decline is exhausting momentum rather than breaking the trend. The setup to watch is an SMI bullish crossover from oversold while price holds the 89.70 area. Traders can look to buy dips toward 89.70–90.50 once momentum confirms, targeting 96.30 and then 100.00, with a stop loss below 87.50 under the early-September breakout base. A daily close below 87.50 would invalidate the setup and expose 84.00.
The 4-hour chart has a bearish short-term outlook. Price at 92.85 has slipped below all three moving averages: the 14-period (red) at 93.82, the 50-period (yellow) at 95.04, and, for the first time since mid-August, the rising 200-period (green) at 93.23. The 14-period crossed below the 50-period in mid-September, and the 50-period has since been capping every recovery. Losing the 200-period average adds weight to the bearish case, because that line had acted as dynamic support throughout the August–September rally. Since the 107 peak, the market has formed a sequence of lower highs, near 100 in late September and around 96 at the start of October, while lows have repeatedly held near 91. The result is a descending-triangle pattern with a horizontal base at 91.00. Such patterns often resolve lower, since sellers are pressing at progressively lower prices against fixed demand. Immediate resistance is the 93.20–93.80 cluster formed by the 200-period and 14-period averages, with 95.05 at the 50-period average as the stronger ceiling. Support is first at 91.00, the triangle base, and then at 88.00, the early-September breakout zone. That 88.00 level also lines up with the daily 50-day average near 89.70, creating a confluence area where the longer-term buyers identified on the daily chart would be expected to step in. On momentum, the late-September lows near 91 came with a modest bullish divergence in the SMI, which produced the bounce to 96. That bounce failed right at the 50-period average, and the SMI has now rolled over from about +40, with the fast line at -9.31 crossing below the signal line at -7.36 just under the midline. This bearish crossover, so soon after the divergence-driven rally failed, suggests the bounce was corrective and that sellers have regained short-term control. The preferred approach is to sell rallies into 93.80–95.00, targeting 91.00 and then 88.00, with a stop loss above 95.30, beyond the 50-period average and the most recent lower high. Given that the daily chart is near oversold support, short positions should be managed actively toward 89.00–88.00. A 4-hour close back above 95.30 would break the lower-high sequence and shift the outlook to neutral.
Friday 2nd October
The daily chart shows WTI crude in a rising structure off the early-July low near 68.00. Since then the market has printed higher lows at roughly 76.00 in early August and about 92.50 in late September, along with a higher high near 107.00 in mid-September that cleared the late-July peak around 94.00. Higher highs and higher lows are the defining feature of an uptrend. Price at 95.63 is now in a corrective pullback from the September high and trades just below the 14-day moving average (red line) at 97.34. That short-term average has flattened and is acting as immediate resistance. The two slower averages, however, remain firmly supportive. The 50-day (yellow line) at 89.55 and the 200-day (green line) at 83.85 are both rising, and the 50-day has stayed above the 200-day since the golden cross in early spring. A golden cross occurs when the medium-term trend moves above the long-term trend, and as long as it holds it favours buying pullbacks over selling rallies. The 200-day also proved its value as support in early August, when the dip toward 76.00 bounced from that average. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) measures where the close sits relative to the midpoint of the recent high-low range, and readings below -40 indicate oversold conditions. It has fallen sharply from extreme overbought readings above +90 to -53.93, below its signal line at -51.29. That puts it in oversold territory, although the blue line is beginning to flatten. The key observation is a hidden bullish divergence. The SMI is now roughly as oversold as at the early-August trough, yet price is holding about 19 dollars higher. When momentum resets to oversold while price only makes a shallow, higher low, the move is usually a healthy pause within an uptrend rather than a reversal, and it often comes before trend continuation. Immediate resistance is the 14-day average at 97.34. A daily close above it would signal that the correction has ended and target a retest of the 107.00 September high. First support is the late-September swing low at 92.50, with the rising 50-day at 89.55 as the deeper and more important floor. Traders positioned for the upside can target 107.00, with a stop loss below the 50-day at 88.90. A daily close beneath the 50-day would break the higher-low sequence and would point to the 200-day near 84.00.
The 4-hour chart shows the pullback from the 107.00 September peak running into strong support at the rising 200-period moving average (green line), now at 92.99. That average has guided the uptrend since early August, and buyers defended it again in the late-September dip toward 92.40, confirming it as the market’s key short-term floor. Price at 95.65 has since recovered above the 14-period average (red line) at 93.62 and edged just above the 50-period average (yellow line) at 95.29. The 50-period had capped the decline throughout the second half of September, so a sustained hold above it would show the short-term downswing losing control. The SMI gives the clearest signal on this timeframe. It has carved out two troughs near -70 in late September, while price slipped to a marginally lower low on the second test of the 200-period average. That is a classic bullish divergence: price pushed lower but momentum did not follow, which showed sellers running out of strength at support. The SMI (33.64) has since crossed decisively above its signal line (13.87) and moved back above the zero line, confirming that momentum has turned positive. It is also now approaching the +40 overbought threshold, so traders should expect some choppiness near resistance. The first hurdle is 97.35, which lines up with the daily 14-day average. Above that sits 99.80, the late-September lower high, which must be cleared to break the descending sequence of highs from 107.00. A clean break above 99.80 would open the way to 102.50 and eventually back to 107.00. On the downside, the 200-period average at 92.99 is the line in the sand, followed by the daily 50-day at 89.55. Traders can look for long entries on dips toward 94.00–95.00, targeting 99.80 and then 102.50, with a stop loss below the late-September swing low at 92.30. A 4-hour close below that level would cancel the bullish divergence and turn the short-term outlook neutral to bearish.