Tuesday 4th February

The daily chart maintains a neutral longer-term bias as the price struggles to sustain upward momentum after recently breaking above the descending trendline (orange) but failing to hold above key resistance levels. The 14-day SMA (blue) at 74.88 has turned into resistance, aligning with the recent rejection, while the 50-day SMA (pink) at 72.44 is acting as the first layer of support. The 200-day SMA (green) at 74.87 is positioned just above the price, reinforcing overhead resistance. A decisive break above 74.88 could open the door toward 79.43, the next key level. The Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply oversold at -67.66%, suggesting that downward momentum remains strong, but a bounce is possible. A breakdown below 72.44 could accelerate losses toward 66.69, while a move above 74.88 would indicate bullish continuation. Traders should maintain a stop loss below 72.00 for long positions, while short setups should consider a stop above 75.30 to protect against a breakout.

The 4-hour chart presents a bearish short-term outlook, as the price is trending lower after failing to sustain bullish momentum. The 50-period SMA (pink) at 75.30 has acted as strong resistance, and the price remains below the 14-period SMA (blue), confirming short-term weakness. The 200-period SMA (green) at 74.13 is another key resistance level that needs to be reclaimed for bullish momentum to return. The Stochastic Momentum Index is at -31.41% and declining, suggesting further downside is likely. The first support level is seen at 72.08, with a break below this level opening the way toward 70.00. If the price manages to reclaim 75.30, it could lead to a relief rally toward 79.43, but for now, the structure favors continued downside pressure. Traders should consider short positions with a stop above 75.50, while long trades should only be considered on a confirmed bounce from support.

Monday 3rd February 

The daily chart remains in a neutral phase as price struggles to gain traction above the key moving averages. The recent attempt to push higher was rejected near the 200-day moving average (green line), currently at 76.02, reinforcing this level as a key resistance. Price action has been forming a broad descending trendline (orange line) since mid-2023, with the latest rally failing to break above this structure, further limiting the upside. The 50-day moving average (pink line) is providing dynamic support at 72.44, with a breach of this level likely leading to a retest of the key psychological support at 68.69. Momentum indicators suggest indecision, with the Stochastic Momentum Index reversing lower from overbought levels, indicating that the recent recovery rally might be running out of steam. If the price remains below 76.02, sellers may regain control, targeting 72.44 initially and then 68.69. A sustained breakout above 76.02 would shift the bias to bullish, opening the door for a move towards 79.43. Traders looking to position for downside risk should place stops above 76.02, while bullish traders should wait for a confirmed breakout before entering.

The 4-hour chart has turned bearish as price failed to hold above the 50-period moving average (pink line), leading to a sharp rejection from resistance at 75.30. The price is now testing the 200-period moving average (green line) near 74.02, which, if broken, could accelerate the sell-off towards 72.08, a key support level. The inability to maintain recent gains highlights selling pressure at higher levels, with the broader downtrend still intact. Momentum signals reinforce this bearish shift, with the Stochastic Momentum Index reversing lower from the overbought zone and entering negative territory. This suggests downside momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of further declines. If price fails to reclaim 75.30, the bias remains to the downside, with a likely test of 72.08. Below this, 68.69 would be the next key level where buyers may re-enter. A stop loss above 75.30 is recommended for bearish trades, while a move above 75.30 would invalidate the short-term bearish setup and open a path to 79.43.

Friday 31st January

The daily chart exhibits a neutral longer-term outlook as price action remains in a corrective phase after failing to break above the descending trendline resistance. The recent rejection near 76.18 aligns with the broader downtrend that has been in place since mid-2023, reinforcing resistance in that zone. The 14-day SMA (blue) has turned downward, reflecting short-term selling pressure, while the 50-day SMA (pink) at 72.35 provides initial support. The 200-day SMA (green) remains higher at 74.99, acting as a key pivot level. The Stochastic Momentum Index is bearish at -53.79%, suggesting momentum favors further downside unless support holds. A break below 72.35 could open the door for a test of 68.69, while a close above 76.18 could signal renewed bullish momentum toward 79.43. Traders should consider a stop-loss above 76.18 for short positions, while long trades may be positioned with stops below 72.35.

The 4-hour chart signals a bearish short-term outlook as price remains under pressure after failing to reclaim the 50-period SMA (pink) at 75.14. The 14-period SMA (blue) is flat, showing weak upside momentum, while the 200-period SMA (green) at 73.91 is currently acting as minor support. The Stochastic Momentum Index at -25.32% is attempting to recover from oversold conditions, but any bounce could be limited unless the price breaks and sustains above 75.14. If selling pressure persists, a move toward 72.08 is likely, with a potential break lower extending losses toward 68.69. Upside confirmation would require a decisive close above 75.14, targeting the next resistance at 79.43. Short positions should use a stop-loss above 75.14, while long trades should be cautious, setting stops below 73.91.