Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 30th October

The daily chart shows a bullish longer-term bias. WTI crude trades at 103.90, above all three key moving averages, and those averages are stacked in bullish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 100.86 sits above the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 95.82, which sits above the 200-day SMA (green) at 87.79. Stacking of this kind means short, medium and long-term trends all point higher, and each average now acts as dynamic support where pullbacks tend to attract buyers. The 200-day SMA has risen steadily all year, which confirms the long-term uptrend. The 50-day held above it during the July–August correction, so the trend never registered a death cross. The structure since the late-June low near 68 is a clean staircase of higher lows, at roughly 75 in early August and 89–90 in early October, and the early-October pullback found support right at the 50-day SMA before turning higher. That confirms the average is being respected as trend support. The key challenge now is overhead. Price has rallied back toward the mid-September high near 106.50 but has so far stalled around 105.50, creating a potential double-top zone. The Stochastic Momentum Index adds an important warning here. At 72.18, above its signal line at 69.94, it is in overbought territory and still edging higher. That keeps upside momentum intact, but its reading is well below the roughly +90 peak recorded at the September high. If price breaks above 106.50 while the SMI stays below that September peak, it would form a classic bearish divergence: a higher high in price without confirmation from momentum, which often signals a fading trend and precedes a corrective pullback. For now momentum supports the trend but argues against chasing at resistance. Traders can favour buying pullbacks toward the 14-day SMA at 100.86, which also lines up with the 100.00 psychological level. A daily close above 106.50 would open the way toward 112.00, the early-May swing high and the next major resistance from the spring trading range. A stop loss below 99.00, under both the 14-day SMA and the 100.00 handle, protects against a deeper correction. If a bearish divergence forms on a push above 106.50, traders should tighten stops and take partial profits, since a failure there would likely send price back toward the 50-day SMA at 95.82.

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish short-term outlook, though price needs to confirm it by breaking higher out of its current range. WTI has consolidated between about 102.30 and 105.50 for the past week, holding above the 14-period SMA (red) at 102.97, the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 102.01 and the rising 200-period SMA (green) at 97.60. The 50-period average has acted as reliable support throughout the October advance. The most recent dip to about 102.30 bounced right off it, which shows buyers continuing to defend the trend on pullbacks. Sideways consolidation that holds above rising moving averages after a strong rally is typically a continuation pattern: the market absorbs supply before its next leg. The Stochastic Momentum Index supports this view. It fell to the -40 oversold boundary during the latest dip and has since turned higher to 24.99, above its signal line at 13.71. That bullish crossover signals that short-term momentum is rebuilding. Price held a higher low on that pullback while the SMI was reset to near oversold, which is a mild hidden bullish divergence: the trend is intact even though momentum had cooled. Hidden divergence of this kind typically favours continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend. There is no classic bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart at present, since the late-October SMI peak near +85 matched the strength of the move to 105.50. Immediate resistance sits at 105.50, the top of the consolidation range, followed by 106.50, the September high and the level that matters most on the daily chart. Support is at 102.01 (the 50-period SMA and floor of the range), then 97.60 (the 200-period SMA), with the 100.00 psychological level in between. Short-term traders can favour longs on dips toward 102.00–103.00, targeting 105.50 first and 106.50 second, with a stop loss below 101.50, just under the 50-period SMA and the range floor. A 4-hour close below 101.50 would break the consolidation to the downside and shift the short-term outlook to neutral, exposing 100.00 and the 200-period SMA at 97.60.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Thursday 29th October

The daily chart supports a bullish longer-term bias. Crude oil has built a sequence of higher lows since the early-July bottom near 69: about 75 in August and 89 in early October. That pattern defines a recovering uptrend. Price at 103.35 sits above all three moving averages, which are stacked in bullish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 100.11, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 95.48 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 87.57. With short-, medium- and long-term average prices all below the market, buyers across every horizon are in profit and tend to defend pullbacks. All three averages are also rising, so the trend has real upward slope. The 200-day has climbed steadily all year, and the 50-day bounced off it in August without crossing below. That shows the long-term uptrend, in place since the golden cross in March, survived the mid-year correction. The rally is now pressing into a significant resistance zone. Last week’s high near 105.40 is the first barrier, and the mid-September peak around 106.80 is the second. Above those, the May swing highs near 109–111 mark the next supply area, where the spring sell-off began. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) adds a note of caution. It reads 66.58 against its signal line at 66.32 and is flattening in overbought territory, with the two lines almost touching. More importantly, it shows a bearish momentum divergence at resistance. In September, price reached 106.80 with the SMI near 90. This month, price has returned to the same 105–107 zone with the SMI peaking only around 70. Buyers are retesting the highs with noticeably less force, which often leads to a stall or pullback before a breakout succeeds. The trend structure remains bullish, but the divergence argues against buying at current levels near resistance. The preferred strategy is to buy dips toward the 14-day SMA and the psychological 100.00 level, targeting 106.80 and then 110.00, with a stop loss below 95.00 (beneath the 50-day SMA). A bearish SMI crossover followed by a daily close below 100.00 would signal a deeper correction toward the 50-day SMA at 95.48. A sustained daily close below the 50-day would neutralise the bullish bias.

The 4-hour chart also shows a bullish short-term outlook. Price is consolidating in a tight range just below the recent highs instead of reversing, which is typically constructive within an uptrend. At 103.34, price is holding above the 14-period SMA (red) at 102.72, the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 101.64 and the 200-period SMA (green) at 97.58. All three are rising and correctly stacked, confirming the intermediate trend on this timeframe is firmly higher. The 50-period SMA has acted as dynamic support throughout the October advance, catching every pullback since price broke above the 200-period SMA in mid-October. That makes it the key level to watch on any dip. The 200-period SMA at 97.58 sits close to the mid-October breakout zone near 98. That makes it a strong support cluster where moving-average buyers and former resistance-turned-support overlap. The SMI is constructive. It reads 19.39 against its signal line at 11.25 and has turned higher after falling from overbought (about 85) to around -40. Momentum reset sharply during the consolidation, while price lost only about 3.50 from its high and stayed above the rising 50-period SMA. When momentum cools that much on such a shallow price pullback, the move is usually working off overbought conditions rather than starting a reversal, and it leaves room for another leg higher. The 4-hour high near 105.70 is immediate resistance and the September peak near 106.80 the next. The daily bearish divergence warns that a breakout may need more than one attempt. The setup favours long entries on dips toward 101.64–102.72, targeting 105.70 and then 106.80, with a stop loss below 100.50 (under the 50-period SMA and the psychological 100 level). A 4-hour close above 105.70 would confirm the breakout and align both timeframes for a test of 107 and higher. A break below 100.50 would shift the short-term outlook to neutral and expose the 97.58 support cluster.

Wednesday 28th October

The daily chart supports a neutral longer-term bias. The underlying trend is constructive, but price is pressing against a major ceiling just as momentum fades. Since the early-July low near 68, WTI has formed a clear sequence of higher lows: about 75 in August and 90 in early October. Price at 101.49 is trading above all three moving averages, which are stacked in bullish order and rising. The 14-day SMA (red) is at 99.26, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 95.12 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 87.34. That alignment means buyers across short, medium and long horizons are in profit, so the averages tend to act as support on pullbacks. The 50-day SMA in particular caught the early-October dip, confirming its role as dynamic support. The problem is overhead. Price stalled at roughly 105.50 last week, just below the mid-September high at 106.50, and that leaves a potential double top. Since September, crude has effectively been ranging between 90 and 106.50, which is why the bias is neutral rather than bullish. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) reinforces that caution. It reads 59.9 and has just crossed below its signal line at 63.2 while still in overbought territory, which is an early sell signal. More importantly, the SMI peaked near 92 at the September high but only reached about 68 on the latest test of the same price area. That is a bearish divergence: price returned to the highs on materially weaker momentum, which suggests buying pressure is thinning and the resistance is likely to hold at the first attempt. Immediate resistance is 106.50, and a daily close above it would complete a breakout from the range and target 109.50, the late-May swing high. Support is the 14-day SMA at 99.25, followed by the 50-day SMA at 95.10. A move below the 50-day would expose the 90 range floor. Given the divergence, the preferred approach is patience rather than chasing strength. Traders can look to buy a pullback into the 95.10–99.25 zone, where the rising averages offer support, targeting 106.50, with a stop loss below 92.50. A confirmed daily close above 106.50 would turn the bias bullish.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook, as the daily divergence starts to play out in a pullback from the 105.50 high. Price at 101.53 has slipped below the 14-period SMA (red) at 102.69, which now acts as first resistance. It is testing the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 101.03, the average that has supported every dip in the October advance. A sustained break below the 50-period SMA would signal that the short-term uptrend has lost its footing. That would open the way toward the mid-October breakout area near 99.00 and then the rising 200-period SMA (green) at 97.52. The 200-period average is the key line separating a routine pullback from a broader trend change on this timeframe. The SMI has fallen sharply from about 85 to −52.5, below its signal line at −39.6, and has entered oversold territory. That shows strong downside momentum behind the move. However, the speed of the drop also matters for the next step. If price holds a higher low above 99.00 or 97.50 while the SMI makes a deeper trough than its early-October low, it would form a hidden bullish divergence. That pattern often marks the end of a correction within an uptrend and would line up with the daily dip-buying zone. Until that signal appears, the path of least resistance is lower. Traders can sell rallies toward the 14-period SMA at 102.70, targeting 101.00 and then 97.50, with a stop loss above 104.00. A 4-hour close back above 102.70 with the SMI turning higher would neutralise the bearish view and put the 105.50 high back in play.

Tuesday 27th October

The daily chart has a bullish longer-term bias. WTI is trading at 102.56, above the 14-day SMA (red) at 98.72, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 94.81 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 87.14. All three averages are rising and stacked in bullish order, with the shortest on top. This alignment confirms that buyers control the trend on every horizon, and it means pullbacks toward these averages tend to attract dip-buying. The structure since the early-July low near 68 is a textbook uptrend of higher lows: about 75 in August, about 90 in early October, and now the rally back above 100. This keeps the recovery from the June selloff intact. The immediate hurdle is the mid-September swing high near 107. That level capped the last advance and triggered a pullback of more than 15%, so it marks the top of the current range. A daily close above 107 would confirm a new higher high and open the path toward 113, the early-May peak where the spring distribution began. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is at 69.03, just above its signal line at 68.01, in overbought territory. It has flattened, though, and is close to a bearish crossover. More importantly, the current SMI peak near 70 is well below the September peak near 90, even though price has retested almost the same highs. This momentum lag is a mild bearish divergence: each push toward 107 is happening with less buying force, which raises the risk of a second rejection at that resistance. The trend still favours the upside, but the divergence argues against chasing strength into 105–107. The better approach is to buy pullbacks toward the 14-day SMA at 98.70, targeting 107 and then 113 on a confirmed breakout. A stop loss below 94.50 sits beneath the 50-day SMA, a break of which would signal that the higher-low sequence is failing.

The 4-hour chart has a neutral short-term outlook. WTI stalled at 105.40 late last week and has slipped back to 102.56, just below the 14-period SMA (red) at 102.96. Losing this fast average is an early sign that short-term momentum is cooling. The broader 4-hour structure remains constructive. The 50-period SMA (yellow) at 100.29 and the 200-period SMA (green) at 97.41 are both rising, and price broke above both in mid-October after the base around 90–92. That leaves the 50-period as the first dynamic support on any deeper pullback. The SMI is at 14.67, below its signal line at 21.22, after rolling over from an overbought peak near 85. This bearish crossover signals a corrective phase is underway. There is no bearish divergence on this timeframe, however. The latest SMI peak was higher than the early-October peaks near 75 and matched price’s push to a higher high, which confirms the rally rather than contradicting it. The current dip therefore looks like a healthy pullback within an uptrend, not the start of a reversal. Expect price to retest 100.30, where the 50-period SMA meets the psychological 100 handle. Traders can look to buy on signs of support there, targeting a retest of 105.40 and then the 107 daily resistance. A stop loss below 97.00 sits under the 200-period SMA and the late-October swing low. A sustained break below 97.40 would shift the short-term picture to bearish and point to a deeper retracement toward the 92–94 zone.

Monday 26th October

The daily chart keeps a bullish longer-term bias. WTI crude is at 103.30, above all three key moving averages, which are stacked in bullish order and rising. The 14-day SMA (red) is at 97.91, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 94.48, and the 200-day SMA (green) at 86.93. When the averages line up like this and slope upward, buyers are in control across short, medium and long horizons, and the averages tend to act as layered dynamic support on pullbacks. The 50-day average has stayed above the 200-day throughout the recovery, so the structural uptrend has not been compromised. Since the early-July bottom near 68.50, price has built a clear series of higher lows at 75.00 in August and 89.50 in early October. The October low held right at the 50-day average, confirming it as a key support. However, last week’s rally to 105.60 stalled just below the mid-September high of 106.60, and today’s 1.7% drop from 104.21 shows sellers defending that zone. Momentum gives a reason for caution. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) measures where the close sits relative to the midpoint of the recent high-low range, with readings above +40 showing overbought conditions. The daily SMI is at 72.90, above its signal line at 67.92, so momentum is still positive. But at the September high it peaked near 92, and now price is testing almost the same level with the SMI about 20 points lower. That is a bearish divergence: price is near equal highs while momentum is weaker, which shows buying pressure is fading and raises the risk of a double top at 106.60. This divergence argues against chasing strength at current levels. Traders should instead buy pullbacks toward the 14-day average at 97.90, where the trend and the moving-average support line up. Upside targets are 106.60 first, then 109.50, the late-May swing high, which a decisive daily close above 106.60 would open. A move through 109.50 would expose the 113.00 May peak. A stop loss belongs below 94.00, under the 50-day average. A close beneath that level would break the higher-low sequence and confirm that the divergence has turned into a deeper correction toward the 200-day average near 87.00.

The 4-hour chart has a neutral short-term outlook, as the uptrend pauses beneath major resistance. Price is at 103.29, still above the 14-period SMA (red) at 102.03, the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 99.47 and the 200-period SMA (green) at 97.19. All three are rising in bullish order, and the 50-period average crossed above the 200-period in mid-October, confirming the shift from the September–October correction back into an uptrend. The short-term picture has softened, though. The rally topped at 105.60, short of the 106.60 September high, and the latest candle has given back 1.8%. On the SMI, the blue line has crossed below its orange signal line inside overbought territory (73.08 versus 76.56). A bearish crossover from overbought levels is often the first sign that a short-term move is exhausting and that a pullback or sideways phase is likely. On the divergence question, the latest SMI peak near 88 confirmed the new October price high, so there is no divergence against the earlier October swings. Against the September high, however, where the SMI peaked near 95, momentum is lower while price is near the same level. That echoes the bearish divergence on the daily chart and supports a neutral rather than outright bullish stance for now. Immediate support is at 102.00, the 14-period average. Below that, 99.50 marks the 50-period average and the recent breakout area, and it is the stronger level and the better place to buy into the daily uptrend. Resistance sits at 105.60, then 106.60, and a 4-hour close above 106.60 would neutralise the divergence and restore a bullish short-term outlook toward 109.50. Traders looking to buy a dip toward 102.00–99.50 should target 105.60 and then 106.60, with a stop loss below 97.00. That level sits just under the 200-period average, and losing it would signal that the short-term uptrend has failed.

Friday 23rd October

The daily chart shows a bullish longer-term bias. WTI crude trades at 100.68, above all three moving averages, and all three are rising and stacked in bullish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 96.78, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 94.02 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 86.69. That alignment shows short, medium and long-term trends all pointing higher. The 50-day has held above the 200-day since March, a “golden cross” configuration that typically means pullbacks get bought rather than sold. Price structure supports this, with a clear sequence of higher lows from about 68 in early July to about 75 in August and about 90 in early October. The October pullback found support right at the 50-day SMA, confirming it as dynamic support. The 14-day SMA at 96.80 is now the first support level, with the 50-day at 94.00 below it. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has %K (blue) at 61 above %D (orange) at 59, holding above the +40 line. That shows strong upside momentum, though it is starting to flatten as price stalls just below the 103.20 recent high. There is no bearish divergence at this stage. The September peak near 107 came with an SMI reading near 90, and the current lower price high has a matching lower SMI reading, so momentum and price agree. A warning sign to watch for is a break above 107 with the SMI failing to exceed its September peak; that would form a bearish divergence, meaning the rally is losing force even as price makes new highs. Upside targets are 103.20, the October high, and then 107.00, the September peak and the top of the current range. A stop loss below 93.50, just under the 50-day SMA and the October higher low area, protects longs against a breakdown of the trend structure.

The 4-hour chart shows a bullish short-term outlook. WTI crude trades at 100.68, above all three moving averages, and all three are rising and stacked in bullish order: the 14-period SMA (red) at 100.40, the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 98.29 and the 200-period SMA (green) at 96.87. That alignment shows short-term momentum is fully in step with the daily uptrend. The 50-period crossed above the 200-period in mid-October, a short-term “golden cross” that confirmed the recovery from the early-October low and signals that dips are likely to be bought. Price structure supports this, with a clear sequence of higher lows from about 90 in early October to about 98 this week. The latest pullback found support right at the 50-period SMA, confirming it as dynamic support. The 50-period SMA at 98.30 is now the first support level, with the 200-period at 96.90 below it. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has %K (blue) at 29.9 above %D (orange) at 25.2, turning higher after a shallow dip to around −12 that never reached oversold below −40. That shows buyers stepped in early and upside momentum is rebuilding. The recent divergence has already played out. In mid-October, price tested the 102.50–103.20 area twice while the SMI made a lower second peak, a mild bearish divergence that correctly warned of the pullback toward 98. With momentum now reset and rising, that signal no longer argues against the uptrend. A warning sign to watch for is a retest of 103.20 with the SMI peaking below its mid-October high near 75; that would form a fresh bearish divergence and suggest the range high could hold again. Upside targets are 103.20, the October high, and then 105.00, the September breakdown shelf where sellers previously took control. A stop loss below 97.80, just under the 50-period SMA and this week’s higher low, protects longs against a break of the short-term trend structure.