Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 30th October

The daily chart shows a bearish longer-term bias. Gold trades at 4,023, below all three key moving averages, and those averages are stacked in bearish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 4,087 sits below the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,258, which sits below the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,492. Stacking of this kind means short, medium and long-term trends all point lower. Each average now acts as overhead resistance where rallies tend to meet supply. The 50-day crossed below the 200-day in early June, a “death cross” that marked the shift from the January–March bull phase (peak near 5,600) to the current downtrend. The 200-day itself has now rolled over from about 4,540, which confirms that the longer-term trend has deteriorated. Price has built a clean sequence of lower highs since the late-August spike to 4,700, at roughly 4,500, 4,400, 4,230 and 4,200, and is now pressing into the major June–July base between 3,940 and 3,970. That zone held twice during the summer, so it is the most important support on the chart. The Stochastic Momentum Index adds an important qualifier. At -51.40 it is in oversold territory, and its troughs have risen from about -75 in mid-September to about -70 in early October and about -65 in late October, while price made lower lows each time. That is a developing bullish divergence: selling pressure is weakening even as price slips. However, the SMI line has just ticked back below its signal line (-50.27) and is still well below zero, so the divergence is unconfirmed. On its own it is a warning against chasing shorts at support rather than a reversal signal. Traders favouring the dominant trend can sell rallies toward the 14-day SMA at 4,087, which also lines up with the late-October rebound high. A daily close below 3,940 would target 3,800, which is a psychological round number and roughly a measured projection of the recent 4,080–3,940 range. A stop loss above 4,110 protects against a divergence-driven squeeze. If the bullish divergence is confirmed by an SMI cross above -40 and a daily close above 4,087, the bias would turn neutral, with room toward the 50-day SMA at 4,258.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook. The late-October relief rally from about 3,970 failed near 4,080, just above the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 4,057, and price has since slipped back below both that average and the 14-period SMA (red) at 4,039. Failing to hold above the 50-period average after briefly reclaiming it is a classic sign that rallies are being sold within a downtrend. The 200-period SMA (green) at 4,176 continues to slope downward, matching the mid-October swing highs near 4,200–4,215 and capping the broader structure. The Stochastic Momentum Index supports this view. It climbed to about +55 on the bounce, a lower peak than the roughly +70 readings in mid-October, and has now rolled over sharply to -36.01 with a bearish crossover below its signal line at -25.19. That points to fresh downside momentum with room to run before reaching oversold extremes. Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour chart shows no bullish divergence: the late-October SMI trough near -85 was lower than the mid-October trough as price also made a lower low, so momentum is confirming the decline rather than contradicting it. Immediate resistance sits at 4,057 (the 50-period SMA), followed by 4,176 (the 200-period SMA). Support is at the 3,970 late-October low, then the 3,940 June–July floor, where the daily bullish divergence could attract buyers. Short-term traders can favour shorts on any retest of 4,040–4,057, targeting 3,970 first and 3,940 second, with a stop loss above 4,090 just beyond the recent rebound high. Since the 4,057–4,080 area capped the latest rally, a sustained move back above it would invalidate the near-term bearish setup.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 29th October

The daily chart continues to support a bearish longer-term bias. Gold has printed a series of lower highs since the late-January peak near 5,600: about 5,400 in March, 4,880 in April and 4,700 in August. That sequence defines a mature downtrend. Price at 4,062 remains below all three moving averages, which are stacked in bearish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 4,100, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,270 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,497. With short-, medium- and long-term average prices all above the market, buyers across every horizon are underwater and tend to sell into rallies. All three averages edged lower again today, which confirms that the trend is still pressing down. The structure also reflects the “death cross” in June, when the 50-day fell below the 200-day, signalling that intermediate momentum had turned against the long-term trend. The 200-day has since rolled over and is now clearly declining. Price is holding just above the June–July base between roughly 3,945 and 4,000, the most important support on the chart because it absorbed two months of selling before the August rally. Last week’s low near 3,970 is the first line of defence and the June swing low around 3,945 the second. A daily close below 3,945 would complete a breakdown from that base and open room toward 3,800, where there is little historical price structure to slow the decline. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has improved further. It now reads −39 against its signal line at −45 and is climbing out of oversold territory. The bullish divergence noted yesterday remains intact: the SMI made a higher low (about −62) while price made a lower low (about 3,970 versus the early-October lows near 4,030). This shows sellers are losing downside momentum, which often comes before a relief rally. Within an established downtrend, though, such divergences usually produce corrective bounces rather than trend reversals, and price has yet to close above even the 14-day SMA. Initial resistance is therefore the 14-day SMA at 4,100, with the 50-day SMA at 4,270 the more significant ceiling, in line with the mid-September breakdown area. The preferred strategy remains to sell rallies toward 4,100–4,180, targeting 3,970 and then 3,945, with a stop loss above 4,200 (the mid-October swing highs). A sustained daily close above the 50-day SMA at 4,270 would invalidate the bearish bias.

The 4-hour chart has shifted from neutral to a bearish short-term outlook, because the bounce is stalling exactly where yesterday’s analysis flagged. Price recovered from the 3,975 low and is holding above the 14-period SMA (red) at 4,039, but it has failed to break the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 4,074. The 200-period SMA (green) sits higher at 4,185. Both of these averages continue to slope downward, which confirms the intermediate trend on this timeframe is still bearish. The 50-period SMA has acted as dynamic resistance throughout October, rejecting every rally attempt, and it is doing so again now. The 200-period SMA at 4,185 coincides with the mid-October swing highs near 4,200, forming a strong resistance cluster where moving-average sellers and horizontal supply overlap. Between the two, the 4,140–4,150 gap-down area from the third week of October is a further pivot that sellers are likely to defend. The key change today is in momentum. The SMI has slipped from 68 to 53, and its signal line sits at 51, so the two are converging and close to a bearish crossover while still in overbought territory. This is the rollover from overbought that we were watching for at the 50-period SMA. It shows that the momentum behind the rebound is fading before price has broken resistance. When momentum peaks on a modest recovery beneath declining averages, the next move is often a pullback. That pattern has repeated on this chart through late September and mid-October, with each overbought reading marking a lower high. The setup favours short entries on rejection below 4,074, targeting 4,039 and then 3,975, with a stop loss above 4,120. A confirmed bearish SMI crossover and a 4-hour close below the 14-period SMA at 4,039 would strengthen the case for a retest of the lows. Alternatively, a 4-hour close above 4,100 would neutralise the bearish view and target the 4,185 resistance cluster. A break below 3,975 would align both timeframes bearishly and confirm the daily breakdown scenario.

Wednesday 28th October

The daily chart supports a bearish longer-term bias. Gold has been printing a series of lower highs since the late-January peak near 5,600: about 5,400 in March, 4,880 in April and 4,700 in August. That sequence defines a mature downtrend. Price at 4,062 now sits below all three moving averages, and they are stacked in bearish order. The 14-day SMA (red) is at 4,110, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,279 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,500. That alignment means short-, medium- and long-term average prices all lie above the market, so buyers from every horizon are underwater and tend to sell into rallies. It also reflects the “death cross” in June, when the 50-day fell below the 200-day, a signal that intermediate momentum had turned against the long-term trend. The 200-day has since flattened and begun to roll lower, which confirms the trend shift. Price is now testing the June–July base between roughly 3,945 and 4,000. That area is the most important support on the chart, because it absorbed selling for two months before the August rally. Last week’s low near 3,970 is the first line of defence, and the June swing low around 3,945 is the second. A daily close below 3,945 would complete a breakdown from that base and open room toward 3,800, where there is little historical price structure to slow the decline. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) adds an important nuance. It currently reads −47 against its signal line at −51 and is turning up from oversold territory. It has also made a higher low (about −62) while price made a lower low (about 3,970 versus the early-October lows near 4,030). That is a bullish divergence: sellers pushed price to a new low with less downside momentum than before, which often comes before a relief rally. Within a downtrend, though, such divergences usually produce corrective bounces rather than trend reversals. Initial resistance is therefore the 14-day SMA at 4,110, and the 50-day SMA at 4,280 is the more significant ceiling, in line with the mid-September breakdown area. The preferred strategy is to sell rallies toward 4,110–4,180, targeting 3,970 and then 3,945, with a stop loss above 4,200 (the mid-October swing highs). A sustained daily close above the 50-day SMA at 4,280 would invalidate the bearish bias.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral short-term outlook. A tradeable bounce is underway, but it has not yet repaired the broader damage. Price recovered from the 3,975 low and has reclaimed the 14-period SMA (red) at 4,020, which suggests very short-term selling pressure has eased. However, it remains capped below the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 4,088 and the 200-period SMA (green) at 4,194. Both are sloping downward, which shows the intermediate trend on this timeframe is still bearish. The 50-period SMA has acted as dynamic resistance throughout October, rejecting every rally attempt, so it is the immediate test. The 200-period SMA at 4,194 coincides with the mid-October swing highs near 4,200. That makes it a strong resistance cluster where moving-average sellers and horizontal supply overlap. The SMI tells the more cautious part of the story. It has surged from deeply oversold (about −85) to 68, above its signal line at 48 and into overbought territory, while price has recovered only about 90 points and remains below the falling 50-period SMA. When momentum reaches overbought on a modest price recovery beneath declining averages, the bounce is often running ahead of itself. The rally is likely to stall unless price can confirm with a break above 4,088. The daily bullish divergence argues for some further upside, so the two signals point to a range between 4,020 and 4,088 in the near term. Traders should watch the reaction at 4,088. If the SMI rolls over from overbought there, it offers a short entry targeting 4,020 and then 3,975, with a stop loss above 4,120. Alternatively, a 4-hour close above 4,100 would turn the short-term outlook bullish and target the 4,194 resistance cluster, with a stop below 4,020. A break below 3,975 would align both timeframes bearishly and confirm the daily breakdown scenario.

Tuesday 27th October

The daily chart has a bearish longer-term bias. Gold is trading at 4,016, below all three key moving averages: the 14-day SMA (red) at 4,112, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,288 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,504. When price holds below all three, sellers are in control on every time horizon, and each average tends to act as resistance on rallies. The 50-day crossed below the 200-day in June, a “death cross” that confirmed the shift from the January to March uptrend into a broader downtrend. The 200-day has since flattened and begun to roll over, which signals the loss of longer-term trend support. Since the late-August rejection near 4,700, price has carved out a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. It is now testing the 3,940–4,000 zone, which held as a base through late June and July and launched the August rally, so 3,940 is the key support to watch. A daily close below it would complete a breakdown from the summer range and open the way toward the 3,800 psychological level, last seen in November 2025. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is at -65.84, below its signal line at -60.08, so it is deep in oversold territory with a bearish crossover. Yet a bullish divergence is developing. Price has made lower lows from mid-September (around 4,250) through early October (around 4,100) to the current 4,000 area, while each SMI trough has been slightly shallower (around -72, then -70, now -66). This shows downside momentum is fading even as price grinds lower. The divergence is not yet confirmed while the SMI keeps falling beneath its signal line, so it argues for caution about chasing shorts at support rather than for a reversal call. Rallies toward the 14-day SMA at 4,112 offer better-positioned selling opportunities, with a downside target of 3,940 and an extended target of 3,800 if that base breaks. A stop loss above 4,215, the October consolidation highs, guards against a broader recovery, and a daily close back above the 50-day SMA at 4,288 would invalidate the bearish view.

The 4-hour chart has a neutral short-term outlook. Gold is stabilising after last week’s sharp decline into the 3,975 area and is pressing against the 14-period SMA (red) at 4,011, where an attempt to reclaim the average is the first sign of short-term buyers returning. The broader 4-hour structure remains bearish. The 50-period SMA (yellow) at 4,101 sits below the 200-period SMA (green) at 4,205, and both are sloping downward. The 50-period capped every rally through October, and the 200-period aligns with the 4,200–4,220 congestion highs. This bearish MA alignment means any bounce will meet layered resistance overhead. Momentum, however, has turned. The SMI fell to around -85 during the selloff and has now crossed above its signal line, at -40.64 against -48.39, as it rises out of the oversold zone. The retest of the lows produced a marginal new price low against a noticeably higher SMI trough. This short-term bullish divergence shows selling pressure is exhausting and supports a relief bounce toward the 50-period SMA at 4,101, with scope to 4,205 if buyers reclaim that level. Traders looking to play the bounce could buy dips toward 3,975, targeting 4,101 initially, with a stop loss below 3,935. That stop sits beneath the June–July swing lows, where the divergence setup would fail. Conversely, a rejection at 4,101 with the SMI rolling back beneath its signal line would signal the daily downtrend reasserting itself. In that case, a break of 3,975 would expose 3,940, and a breach there would bring the 3,800 daily target into focus.

Monday 26th October

The daily chart has a bearish longer-term bias. Gold is trading at 3,999, below all three key moving averages, which are stacked in bearish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 4,117, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,294, and the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,507. This alignment, together with the death cross in June when the 50-day fell below the 200-day, confirms that the dominant trend has turned lower. The record high near 5,600 in late January has been followed by a clear sequence of lower highs at 5,420 in March, 4,850 in April, 4,700 in August, and 4,220 in October. The August rally briefly reclaimed the 200-day average before failing, a classic bull trap that preceded the current leg down. Last week’s daily close below the 4,080–4,100 floor of the October range completed a breakdown from that consolidation. The range height of about 140 points projects a measured-move target near 3,940, which coincides with the June and July lows. That zone is now critical, because it is being tested for a third time, and repeated tests tend to weaken a support level rather than strengthen it. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) measures where the close sits relative to the midpoint of the recent high-low range, with readings below -40 showing oversold conditions. It failed to reach the zero line in mid-October and has rolled over to -67.88, below its signal line at -56.37. A bearish crossover inside oversold territory signals that sellers remain in control. There is, however, a modest bullish divergence: the SMI low in mid-September was near -75 with price around 4,250, while price is now roughly 250 points lower with the SMI at a shallower reading. This tells us downside momentum is less intense than the price decline suggests, and it raises the odds of a reaction off 3,940. The divergence is unconfirmed until the SMI crosses back above its signal line and price closes back above the 14-day average at 4,117. Until then, traders should treat rallies toward 4,117–4,200 as selling opportunities. A daily close below 3,940 opens the way to 3,880, the November 2025 low area, and then the 3,800 psychological level. A stop loss should sit above 4,210, just over the October range highs, where a recovery would invalidate the breakdown.

The 4-hour chart has a bearish short-term outlook. Price is at 3,998, below the 14-period SMA (red) at 4,044, the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 4,115, and the 200-period SMA (green) at 4,216, with all three sloping lower in bearish alignment. The 14-period average has capped every bounce since the breakdown and now acts as immediate dynamic resistance. The 50-period average at 4,115 lines up with the broken October range floor, a role-reversal zone where old support is likely to become new resistance. The 200-period average at 4,216 matches the mid-October highs and marks the ceiling of the broader short-term downtrend. On momentum, the SMI fell to roughly -90 as price printed its recent low near 3,975. That trough was deeper than the early-October trough near -85, when price was around 4,080. Because momentum confirmed the new price low, there is no bullish divergence on this timeframe, and the selloff has genuine momentum behind it. The SMI has since hooked up to -69.99 and sits level with its signal line at -68.88, which points to short-term consolidation or a minor bounce rather than a reversal. A bullish divergence would only form if price retests or undercuts 3,975 while the SMI holds a higher low, and that would be the signal to expect a stronger recovery. Until then, a bounce toward 4,044–4,080 offers a better-positioned short entry. Downside targets are 3,940 at the June–July lows, then 3,880 if that floor gives way. A stop loss should be placed above 4,120, just beyond the 50-period average. A 4-hour close above that level would neutralise the bearish setup and suggest a deeper short-covering rally toward 4,216.

Friday 23rd October

The daily chart shows a bearish longer-term bias. Gold has broken below the 4,100–4,210 consolidation range that held through most of October, with a large red candle carrying price down to 4,029. All three moving averages are stacked bearishly and sloping lower: the 14-day SMA (red) at 4,131, the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 4,303 and the 200-day SMA (green) at 4,510. The 50-day has been below the 200-day since early summer. This is a “death cross” configuration, which tells us the medium-term trend is weaker than the long-term trend and that rallies tend to be sold. The series of lower highs since the late-August peak near 4,700 confirms the downtrend. The 14-day SMA at 4,131 sits just above the former range floor, so it becomes the first resistance level, because broken support often turns into resistance. The 50-day SMA at 4,303 is the next and more significant barrier. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) shows a mixed but important picture. Price has made a new low below the early-October troughs, but the SMI’s %K (blue) at −58 is still above its early-October low near −70. That is a developing bullish divergence: price falling while momentum falls less sharply, which can signal that selling pressure is fading. However, the divergence is not confirmed. %K has just crossed below %D (orange, −45) and both are heading back below the −40 oversold line. The mid-October attempt at a divergence-driven bounce also failed to lift price. The bearish bias therefore stands, with the divergence treated as a warning to manage risk near support rather than a buy signal. The first downside target is 3,950, the June–July base where price found buyers several times. A daily close below that level opens the way toward 3,800, a round-number level with little price structure above it. A stop loss above 4,215, the top of the October range, protects short positions against a false breakdown.

The 4-hour chart also shows a bearish short-term outlook. Price has fallen below the 14-period SMA at 4,095, the 50-period SMA at 4,135 and the 200-period SMA at 4,228. All three are declining in bearish order, which confirms that short-term momentum is aligned with the daily downtrend. The October consolidation, which repeatedly found support near 4,100, broke to the downside in the last few sessions, and the move accelerated toward 4,024. The SMI is deep in oversold territory, with %K at −84 below %D at −77. Price has made a lower low below the mid-October lows, while the SMI is roughly equal to its earlier trough near −85. That means there is no meaningful divergence yet, so momentum is still confirming the decline rather than warning against it. Oversold readings on this timeframe often lead to short relief bounces. If the next dip produces a higher SMI low while price makes a new low, that would form a bullish divergence and signal a stronger bounce. Until then, the preferred approach is to sell rallies into the 4,095–4,135 resistance zone, where the 14 and 50-period SMAs meet the underside of the broken range. Downside targets are 4,000, the psychological round number, then 3,950, the summer lows. A stop loss above 4,140 limits risk if price recovers back into the former range.