Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Monday 10th August

The daily chart shows gold attempting to reverse a multi-month downtrend that took price from roughly 5,700 in February down to the low-4,000s by mid-summer. Price has just staged a sharp rally, closing at 4,341.51 and pushing back above both the 14-day MA (4,132.61) and 50-day MA (4,149.90), a short-term positive signal since these averages had been acting as overhead resistance throughout the decline. The 200-day MA (green, 4,495.33) still sits above current price and is itself sloping downward — that’s the key level to watch, since a decisive close above it would flip the longer-term structure from bearish to constructive, while rejection there would keep the broader downtrend intact. The Stochastic Momentum Index (15,3,3) has spiked from near-zero to 71.02/58.66, moving firmly into overbought territory in tandem with the price surge rather than showing divergence — momentum is confirming the move rather than warning against it, but the speed of the rally combined with an already-overbought SMI raises the risk of a near-term stall or pullback before any further advance. A push through 4,495 opens the door toward 4,700, a prior consolidation zone from the decline; failure to clear the 200-day MA would likely see price retest the 50-day MA near 4,150, with the July swing low around 4,050 as the deeper support to watch.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the recovery is even more pronounced: price has broken above all three moving averages — the 14-period (4,289.52), 50-period (4,134.52), and 200-period (4,081.84) — which had been stacked in bearish order (short-term below long-term) for months, so this alignment shift is a meaningful short-term trend-change signal. The SMI here is even more extended, reading 74.05/75.29, deep into overbought territory, and the shape of the move (a near-vertical spike after a long grind lower) is the kind of price action that often needs to consolidate or retrace before continuing. Immediate resistance sits at the recent high of 4,352, with the daily 200-MA confluence at 4,495 as the next real hurdle. On the downside, the 14-period MA at 4,289 is the first line of support, followed by the 50-period MA at 4,134 — a break back below that level would suggest the breakout is failing and the prior downtrend could reassert itself.

                                                               Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 7th August

Gold’s daily chart shows price attempting to stabilize after a steep decline from the February 2026 spike near 5,700, with the pair now trading at 4,234.70 and testing the underside of its longer-term moving average structure. Price has reclaimed both the 14-day (4,106.10) and 50-day (4,150.62) moving averages, a constructive short-term signal, but remains capped below the 200-day moving average at 4,492.73 — the level that has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the multi-month slide and is the key line that needs to be reclaimed to shift the structural bias from neutral/repair mode to outright bullish. Immediate resistance sits at this 4,492 confluence, with a secondary supply zone near 4,700 where price previously consolidated after the initial break lower. On the momentum side, the Stochastic Momentum Index has turned up sharply from the low end of its range, with the SMI line at 52.66 crossing above its signal at 41.74 — this is a bullish momentum divergence relative to the still-soft price structure, since momentum is accelerating faster than price has recovered, hinting that the recent bounce has real participation behind it rather than being a weak technical retracement. That said, the speed of the SMI’s ascent means it could reach overbought territory quickly, so confirmation of a close back above the 200-day MA would meaningfully strengthen the case for continuation toward 4,700. Support on any pullback is expected at the 50-day MA near 4,150, with a deeper floor at the 4,000 psychological/prior swing-low area; traders holding long exposure on this bounce should place a stop below 4,000 to protect against a resumption of the dominant downtrend, while those still favoring the broader bearish structure would look to fade rallies into the 4,492–4,700 resistance band.

The 4-hour chart paints a more decisively bullish near-term picture, with price at 4,234.63 having sharply cleared all three moving averages — the 14-period (4,215.61), 50-period (4,099.56), and 200-period (4,076.47) — which have converged into a tight band that now functions as a layered support shelf after months of grinding decline. This moving-average compression followed by an upside break is typically a sign of a base or bottoming pattern forming after an extended downtrend, and the sharp thrust through 4,100–4,215 confirms short-term buyers have taken control. However, the Stochastic Momentum Index is registering firmly in overbought territory at 57.60/63.80, and the SMI’s repeated pattern of sharp overbought/oversold swings throughout this consolidation phase suggests momentum could stall or reverse quickly rather than extend in a straight line — this is the key caution flag for chasing the move at current levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 4,300, a level tied to the recent swing high, with a further target near 4,450 if the rally has enough force to challenge the daily 200-day MA zone above. On the downside, support is layered at 4,100 (the 50/200-period MA confluence) and 4,000 further below; a stop just under 4,100 is recommended for traders positioned long off this breakout, since a failure to hold that MA cluster would undercut the bullish short-term structure and reopen the door to a retest of the broader downtrend lows. Overall, the 4-hour setup favors continued strength while price holds above 4,100, but the overbought SMI reading argues for scaling into positions rather than adding aggressively at the highs.