Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Tuesday 11th August

EUR/USD’s daily chart shows price at 1.15496 having reclaimed both the 14-day MA (1.14849) and 50-day MA (1.14681) after a multi-month decline from the roughly 1.19 high in February down toward the low-1.11s by June/July, but it remains below the 200-day MA at 1.16301, which is the key longer-term trend line and the level that has capped every recovery attempt since the peak — reclaiming it is the technical bar for calling the broader downtrend genuinely over rather than just oversold. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged into overbought territory at 72.84/72.30 as the recent rally gathered pace, and while there’s no bearish divergence present since price and the SMI are both making fresh short-term highs together, the extended reading does raise the odds of a near-term pause or partial pullback even if the recovery itself continues. A clean break above 1.1630 would open the way toward the 1.1800 area where the market previously consolidated on the way down; failure to clear it, or a slip back below the 50-day MA at 1.1468, would suggest the bounce is losing steam, with 1.1300 the next support of note from the prior base. A stop just below 1.1468 keeps risk defined against the current short-term uptrend structure.

On the 4-hour chart, price at 1.15498 has pushed back above all three moving averages — the 14-period at 1.15491 (essentially right at price), the 50-period at 1.15298, and the 200-period at 1.14431 — confirming the short-term trend has turned constructive after the sharp multi-week decline that carried the pair down to the 1.13-handle lows seen in late July. The Stochastic Momentum Index has swung from deeply oversold back up near the zero line at -3.36/-0.66, reflecting the strength of the recent snapback, and while it hasn’t yet reached overbought extremes on this timeframe, the speed of the move from -50 territory suggests momentum could stall or consolidate near current levels before extending further — there’s no divergence signal here since price and momentum are moving in tandem. Immediate resistance sits at today’s high near 1.1550, with the daily chart’s 200-day MA at 1.1630 the more significant target if the rally extends; on the downside, the 50-period MA at 1.1530 is the first support to watch, and a break below it would point back toward the 200-period MA at 1.1443, which would represent a more meaningful stall in the recovery. A stop placed below 1.1530 ties risk to the current short-term trend, while a stop below 1.1443 allows more room but corresponds to a failure of the broader recovery structure built since late July.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Monday 10th August

EUR/USD’s daily chart shows the pair stabilizing after a steady summer decline from the 1.18 area down toward 1.14, and price has now reclaimed both the 14-day MA (1.14761) and 50-day MA (1.14700), a short-term positive since these had been resistance during the slide, closing at 1.15581. The 200-day MA (green, 1.16299) remains above current price and still slopes gently downward — this is the key level that would need to be reclaimed to shift the longer-term bias from neutral to bullish, since it has capped every rally attempt since the pair rolled over from the February highs near 1.20. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged to 76.78/73.46, moving sharply into overbought territory in tandem with the recent rally rather than diverging from it, which confirms the bounce has real short-term momentum behind it, though the speed and magnitude of the move increase the odds of a near-term pause or pullback before any further advance. A close above 1.16299 would open the path toward 1.18000, the region of the spring consolidation; failure to clear the 200-day MA would likely see price drift back toward the 50-day MA at 1.14700, with 1.13000 as a deeper support if the broader downtrend resumes. Traders leaning into the recovery should consider a stop below 1.14700 to protect against a failed breakout.

The 4-hour chart shows a sharper, more decisive short-term reversal: price has broken above all three moving averages — the 14-period (1.15430), 50-period (1.15118), and 200-period (1.14366) — which had been stacked in bearish order (short-term below long-term) throughout the summer decline, so this realignment is a meaningful signal that short-term sentiment has flipped. The SMI here reads 26.89/22.05, still in neutral territory rather than overbought despite the strong move, which is a constructive divergence from the daily chart’s overbought reading — it suggests the 4-hour momentum has room to run further before becoming a headwind, even as the daily chart flags near-term exhaustion risk. Immediate resistance sits at the recent high of 1.15594, and a break above it would open the way to the 1.16000 round-number level, near the daily chart’s 200-day MA confluence. On the downside, the 14-period MA at 1.15430 is first support, with the 50-period MA at 1.15118 as the more important level — a break back below there would suggest the breakout is failing. A stop loss just below 1.14366 (the 200-period MA) aligns with the bullish bias while giving the trade room against normal intraday noise.

Friday 7th August

The daily chart shows price still working within a broader downtrend that began after the January spike toward 1.19–1.20, with the pair having ground down to the mid‑1.14s before staging a sharp, fast rally into the current 1.1520 close. That rally has pushed price back above both the 14‑period (1.14621) and 50‑period (1.14708) moving averages, which is a short‑term positive, but the 200‑day average (green line, 1.16295) still sits well above current price and continues to slope downward — meaning the dominant multi‑month trend remains bearish until price can reclaim that line. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged into overbought territory (blue 70.2, orange 67.9), which historically on this chart has coincided with local tops rather than sustained breakouts, so the speed of the recent move is itself a caution flag even though there’s no clean bearish divergence yet since this SMI peak is actually lower than the readings seen at the December and April swing highs. Given the tug-of-war between a bullish short-term MA crossover and a still-bearish 200MA/long-term structure, the daily bias is best read as neutral-to-cautiously-constructive: a push through 1.1580 and then the 200MA zone near 1.1630–1.1650 would be needed to shift the longer-term tone bullish, while a stall here with the SMI rolling over would favor a retest of 1.1480 and potentially the 1.1400 area where the 14/50MA cluster currently sits. A logical stop for anyone positioning long off this bounce would sit just below 1.1480, since a break there would undo the recent recovery structure.

he 4-hour chart tells a cleaner short-term story: price has rallied decisively through all three moving averages — the 200-period (green, 1.14307), the 50-period (yellow, 1.14909), and is now testing the 14-period (red, 1.15374) — which is a textbook bullish stack developing after months of the averages being inverted (14 below 50 below 200) during the prior downleg. The Stochastic Momentum Index has swung hard off a deeply oversold extreme (prior trough near ‑90) up to ‑29.8/‑11.6, with the fast line crossing above the signal line — a bullish momentum crossover that supports the case for continuation, though the index is not yet overbought so there’s room for the move to extend before it becomes stretched on this timeframe. Immediate resistance sits around 1.1540, roughly the 14MA and the intraday high, with a break opening the door to the prior mid-July supply zone near 1.1580; failure to clear that level would likely produce a pullback toward the 50MA at 1.1490, with the 200MA at 1.1430 as the deeper support that needs to hold for the short-term bullish structure to stay intact. A stop loss placed just below 1.1490 (the 50MA) balances giving the trade room against the average while protecting against a failed breakout back into the prior range.