EUR/USD

21 Sep 2026
EUR/USD: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view

Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral

Resistance

1.1566 then 1.1628
Support

1.1400 then 1.1250

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Resistance

1.1550 then 1.1591
Support

1.1450 then 1.1400

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Monday 21st September

The daily EUR/USD chart depicts a currency pair oscillating within a broad range that has trended sideways-to-lower since the February spike toward 1.1900: price closed at 1.14849, now trading below both the 14-day MA (1.15658) and the 50-day MA (1.15390), which have both turned down and now sit as overhead resistance following the recovery rally that ran from the August low near 1.1400 up to the September high near 1.1750 before rolling over again. The 200-day MA at 1.16280 remains above current price and continues to cap the pair’s longer-term structure, and this configuration — spot below all three moving averages, with the shorter-term averages now bending lower — keeps the longer-term bias at neutral, reflecting a market without a clear directional edge on the higher timeframe. The Stochastic Momentum Index has plunged to -74.124/-72.217, deep into oversold territory, and this sharp momentum decline mirrors the price rollover from the recent 1.1750 high rather than diverging from it, meaning the SMI is confirming the current downside pressure rather than warning of an imminent reversal — though readings this extreme do raise the odds of at least a near-term bounce or stabilization. A daily close back above the 1.1566–1.1628 MA cluster would be needed to shift the bias constructively, while a break of 1.1400 would open the door to the 1.1250 base; a stop for range-based positioning is best placed just outside whichever boundary a trade is built around, given the lack of trend conviction on this timeframe.

The 4-hour chart shows a clearer bearish short-term structure: price at 1.14846 has fallen below the 14-period MA (1.14772 — barely holding just under spot), the 50-period MA (1.15505), and the 200-period MA (1.15906), with all three averages now sloping downward after the pair’s failed attempt to sustain the rally toward 1.1750 in late August/early September. This bearish MA alignment — shorter-term averages below the longer-term ones and all declining — confirms that short-term sellers have regained control following the reversal from the September peak, and the MA cluster around 1.1550–1.1591 now represents a well-defined resistance shelf on any near-term bounce. The Stochastic Momentum Index at -47.687/-50.659 sits in negative territory but is not yet at oversold extremes, and notably the main SMI line has crossed just above its signal line even as price continues to probe fresh session lows — this is an early, modest bullish momentum divergence (price making marginal new lows while momentum stops deteriorating at the same pace) that traders should watch for confirmation, since it can sometimes precede a short-term bounce even within a broader downtrend. Given the bearish MA structure, the short-term outlook favors continuation toward the 1.1450 area with a deeper target at 1.1400 if the August low is retested, while a stop for short positions is best placed above the 50-period MA at 1.1550, since a reclaim of that level alongside a rising SMI would suggest the modest divergence noted above is developing into a genuine short-term reversal.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 18th September

The daily chart shows EUR/USD having rolled over decisively from its 2026 highs near 1.1800, tracing a series of lower highs through the spring before a sharp August rally that has since faded, leaving price back at 1.14806 and now trading below all three key moving averages — the 14-day (1.15733), 50-day (1.15368), and 200-day (1.16293). This bearish stacked alignment, where price sits beneath every major average and the shorter-term lines have crossed below the longer-term one, confirms that sellers are back in control across multiple timeframes, with the declining 14-day and 50-day MAs now acting as immediate overhead resistance on any bounce attempt. The Stochastic Momentum Index has fallen sharply to -76.8/-71.0, moving deep into oversold territory as the recent bounce off the August highs failed and price rolled back down; while an extreme oversold reading like this can sometimes precede a short-term relief bounce, the speed and depth of the decline here — falling from an overbought extreme above +60 just weeks earlier — reflects strong bearish momentum rather than a divergence, since price is making fresh lows in step with the falling oscillator rather than diverging from it. Given this alignment of price and momentum, the bearish bias is reinforced: traders should watch for a break of the 1.14000 support zone (the July/August base) to open the way toward 1.11800, while a recovery back above 1.15368 would be needed to challenge the bearish view. A stop loss placed above 1.16000, just above the 200-day MA, is recommended for short positions to protect against a sharp reversal.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price ($1.14803) is trading below all three moving averages — the 14-period (1.14969), 50-period (1.15677), and 200-period (1.15924) — mirroring the daily chart’s bearish structure and confirming that the steep sell-off from the early-September peak near 1.1700 has firmly reversed the shorter-term uptrend that had carried price up from the August low. The declining 200-period MA, now curling lower after topping out, marks the ceiling of the recent failed rally and represents a significant resistance hurdle that would need to be reclaimed to shift sentiment back to neutral. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -55.6/-57.7, negative but not yet at a fresh extreme, and importantly it is moving in alignment with price rather than diverging — both have been making lower lows together through the decline, which reinforces rather than undermines the bearish case, since a genuine divergence (price falling while momentum flattens or rises) is not present here. Immediate support lies at the 1.14000 psychological level, and a break below it would expose a deeper slide toward 1.13000, last tested in March; on the upside, a recovery through 1.15677 would be the first sign that selling pressure is easing. A stop loss above 1.15300, just above the 14-period MA, is recommended for short-term short positions to limit risk while giving the trade room within the current downtrend.

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