EUR/USD

1 Sep 2026
EUR/USD: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view

Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral

Resistance

1.1634 then 1.1800
Support

1.1495 then 1.1300

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Resistance

1.1692 then 1.1800
Support

1.1653 then 1.1534

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Tuesday 1st September

The daily chart shows EUR/USD locked in a broad, choppy range for most of the past year, oscillating roughly between 1.13 and 1.18 with no clear directional trend — visible in how the 200-day average (green, 1.16343) has stayed essentially flat while price has repeatedly crossed above and below it. Currently, price is testing the top of this range at the current 1.16142 close (-0.03%, O1.16179/H1.16247/L1.16128), sitting just below the 200-day average and above both the 14-day (red, 1.16250, essentially at spot) and the 50-day (yellow, 1.14950), which has turned up from its recent low near 1.14 as the pair has recovered off the summer lows. This MA compression — with price and the 14-day essentially overlapping right at the 200-day — is characteristic of a range-bound market approaching a decision point rather than a trending one. Momentum reflects that same indecision: the SMI (15,3,3) sits at 13.19/23.34, having pulled back from a recent overbought spike above +80 in mid-August, suggesting the bounce off the 1.1495 low has already lost some steam and the pair is digesting its recent gains rather than building a fresh impulsive leg. Immediate resistance is the 1.1634 zone (the 200-day average and a level that has capped rallies multiple times this year), with 1.1800 as the more significant upside target if the range finally breaks; on the downside, the 50-day average at 1.1495 is first support, with the 1.1300 area — the lower boundary of the year’s range — as the deeper target if selling resumes. Given the range-bound structure and momentum that’s cooling right at resistance, the daily bias is neutral, and a stop loss below 1.1495 would be appropriate for anyone positioning for a breakout attempt higher.

On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD has staged a sharp rally off the July low near 1.1350, pushing price above all three moving averages before easing back to the current 1.16143 print, which now sits just below both the 14-period average (red, 1.16125, essentially at spot) and the 50-period average (yellow, 1.16532), while the 200-period average (green, 1.15337) remains well below, confirming the short-term uptrend structure is intact even as the most recent push has stalled. The SMI (15,3,3) tells the more urgent part of the story: it has dropped sharply from an overbought spike above +80 in late August down to -10.77/-16.70, a fast round-trip that signals the recent rally’s momentum has broken down quickly — a pattern that has repeated often on this chart (similar sharp reversals occurred in March, May, and July) and typically precedes at least a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback before the next directional move. Immediate resistance is 1.1692, this month’s swing high, with 1.1800 as the broader target if the pair breaks decisively higher; on the downside, the 50-period average at 1.1653 is first support, with the 200-period average at 1.1534 as the more important floor that would need to hold to keep the short-term uptrend intact. Given the loss of the faster averages and the sharp momentum reversal, the short-term outlook is bullish-but-fragile: the trend structure still favors the upside while price holds above 1.1534, but the momentum breakdown argues for caution on fresh long entries until price reclaims the 1.1613–1.1653 average cluster; a stop loss below 1.1534 (the 200-period average) is the more conservative placement given the current momentum extreme.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Monday 31st August

EUR/USD closed at 1.15916 after breaking out of a multi-month downtrend that had carried price from the February highs near 1.18 down to the July low around 1.14, and it has now reclaimed both its 14-day average (red, 1.16168) and its 200-day average (green, 1.16339) in a single strong push, though it’s currently pulling back to test that reclaimed zone from above — an important retest, since a hold above 1.163 would confirm the breakout while a rejection back below would suggest a false break. The 50-day average (yellow, 1.14898) sits well below and has flattened out after months of decline, marking the recent basing structure and acting as the more significant support if this pullback deepens. The Stochastic Momentum Index rallied sharply from oversold levels below -50 into a strong overbought spike above 50 during the August advance, and is now curling back down (14.3/30.3) even as price holds most of its gains — this kind of momentum cooling after an overbought spike, while price consolidates rather than collapsing, is typical of a healthy pause within a new uptrend rather than a reversal warning, though it does argue for waiting on the retest to resolve before adding to length. A confirmed hold above 1.163 opens the path toward the 1.175–1.180 area (last winter’s swing high), while a failure and close back below 1.149 would undo the breakout and put the broader downtrend back in control.

On the 4-hour chart, price at 1.15915 has pulled back below both its 14-period average (1.16323) and 50-period average (1.16578) after a sharp rally off the August lows near 1.14, with those two averages now forming the immediate overhead resistance cluster that needs to be reclaimed for the short-term uptrend to resume. The 200-period average (green, 1.15282) sits just beneath price and is the more important line here — it was only recently crossed during the rally, so a slip back under it would effectively erase the short-term trend shift and point back toward the prior range. Momentum has swung hard on this timeframe: the SMI spiked into strongly overbought territory above 50 during the rally and has now reversed sharply into deeply negative territory (-73.9/-72.5), a fast round-trip that reflects the sheer speed of both the rally and the current pullback rather than a slow, orderly divergence — this kind of rapid momentum collapse after an overbought extreme often precedes at least a short consolidation before the next leg, whichever direction that turns out to be. Support sits first at the 200-period average near 1.153, with the broader range floor near 1.140 as the next real shelf if selling accelerates; resistance is the 1.163–1.166 average cluster, above which the daily uptrend thesis would gain more confidence.

Friday 28th August

EUR/USD’s daily chart shows a pair that has recovered from a summer decline but is now stalling right at a key inflection point: price closed at 1.16469, sitting almost exactly on top of the 200-day moving average at 1.16339, which the pair has just reclaimed after trading beneath it for several months — a level that needs to hold as support to confirm the broader trend has genuinely turned. Price is also pressing just above its 14-day MA at 1.16176, while the 50-day MA at 1.14877 sits well below as the next support layer if this reclaim fails. The Stochastic Momentum Index (15,3,3) is essentially neutral at 47.474/53.579, roughly balanced around the zero line after popping out of oversold territory during the recent rally — there’s no divergence signal here since both price and momentum have moved up together, but the lack of a strong directional push in the SMI keeps the overall daily bias neutral rather than confirming a fresh uptrend. A daily close and hold above the 200-day MA at 1.16339 would open the way toward 1.18000, the region of the January highs, while a rejection back below the 14-day MA at 1.16176 would point to a retest of the 50-day MA at 1.14877. A stop loss just below 1.14877 would frame a longer-term long-bias trade at this pivot, while a tighter stop below 1.16176 suits traders wanting to limit risk given the current indecision at the 200-day MA.

The 4-hour chart shows a short-term pullback taking shape after a strong rally off the mid-August lows: price closed at 1.16469, just below the 14-period MA at 1.16549, having failed to hold the recent high of 1.16557 and slipped back through it — a loss of the shortest-term moving average that often precedes a deeper near-term correction. Price remains above the 200-period MA at 1.15231, which continues to slope higher and represents the more important trend-defining support on this timeframe, but the immediate momentum picture has turned negative: the Stochastic Momentum Index has dropped to -38.728/-39.914, moving into oversold territory even though price is only modestly below its recent high, which constitutes a bearish momentum shift that’s arrived faster than price has actually broken down — a signal that short-term selling pressure is building ahead of any confirmed breakdown in price structure. Immediate resistance is at 1.16549 (the 14-period MA), with the 1.16557 recent high just above it capping any near-term bounce; support comes first at the 200-period MA at 1.15231, with a deeper downside target near 1.14000 (the psychological level and prior June consolidation zone) if selling pressure intensifies. A stop loss placed just above the 14-period MA at 1.16549 would suit a short-term short/fade setup given the momentum rollover, while a reclaim of that level would invalidate the near-term bearish read and favor stepping aside.

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