EUR/USD

25 Sep 2026
EUR/USD: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view

Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Bearish

Resistance

1.1500 then 1.1620
Support

1.1330 then 1.1200

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Resistance

1.1460 then 1.1575
Support

1.1330 then 1.1200

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 25th September

The daily chart of EUR/USD shows a clear longer-term downtrend defined by lower highs: about 1.2080 in late January, 1.1850 in April, and 1.1710 in August. Each rally has failed at a lower level than the one before, which shows sellers are gaining control over time. The August recovery from the 1.1330–1.1360 June–July base briefly lifted the pair above all its moving averages. That breakout failed at 1.1710, however, and the sharp September decline has erased the entire rally, taking price back to 1.1382. Price is now below all three moving averages, which are in bearish order: the 14-day (red) at 1.1503, the 50-day (yellow) at 1.1535, and the 200-day (green) at 1.1621. The 200-day has also rolled over and started to slope downward. A declining 200-day average with shorter averages beneath it is a textbook sign of a bearish primary trend, and all three levels are likely to act as resistance on any recovery. The 1.1500 area, which combines the 14-day average with the psychological round number, is the first major barrier. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), which measures where the close sits relative to the midpoint of its recent high-low range, stands at -85.86, its most oversold reading on the chart. It sits just below its signal line at -84.71. There is no bullish divergence. As price approaches the June low near 1.1330, the SMI is reading deeper than it did at that low, which means momentum is confirming the decline rather than warning of exhaustion. Extreme oversold readings can produce short bounces, but without divergence they are more consistent with a strong trend than with a reversal. A bullish divergence would only form if price breaks below 1.1330 while the SMI makes a higher low, and that is the signal to watch for a potential turn. Traders with a bearish bias should look to sell rallies toward 1.1500, targeting the 1.1330 June low first and then the 1.1200 psychological level if the base breaks. A stop loss above 1.1540, beyond the 50-day average, is recommended. A daily close above the 200-day at 1.1620 would invalidate the bearish structure.

The 4-hour chart shows a steep short-term downtrend from the 1.1710 August high. It has formed consecutive lower highs near 1.1650 in early September and near 1.1500 last week, followed by a persistent slide toward the summer lows. Price at 1.1382 is below all three moving averages, and they are falling in bearish order: the 14-period (red) at 1.1392, the 50-period (yellow) at 1.1463, and the 200-period (green) at 1.1576. The 200-period average has turned lower after supporting the August rally, which confirms that the intraday trend has reversed from bullish to bearish. The 14-period average is tracking price closely and capping each minor bounce, which shows how consistently sellers have been in control. The SMI adds a note of caution for new short positions. It has crossed above its signal line (-66.31 versus -69.72) within oversold territory. Its recent troughs have also held in roughly the same -75 to -80 range while price has fallen from about 1.1500 to 1.1375. That emerging bullish divergence shows the latest drop is being made with slowing momentum, which often comes before a relief bounce. In a sequence of lower highs, however, those bounces typically stall at resistance rather than reverse the trend. Traders should therefore avoid chasing the move lower from current levels and instead treat a rebound toward the 50-period average at 1.1460 as a selling opportunity. Downside targets are 1.1330, the June swing low and the base of the summer range, and then 1.1200 if that floor gives way. A stop loss above 1.1500, just beyond the last lower high, is recommended. A 4-hour close above that level would break the lower-high sequence and shift the short-term outlook to neutral, with the falling 200-period average at 1.1575 as the next upside objective.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 24th September

The daily chart shows EUR/USD with a bearish longer-term bias. The August recovery has fully reversed, and price is heading back toward the year’s lows. At 1.1380, price trades below all three moving averages. The 14-day moving average (red line) at 1.1520 has crossed below the 50-day moving average (yellow line) at 1.1536, a bearish short-term crossover, and the two have merged into a single resistance band. The 200-day moving average (green line) at 1.1623 had risen steadily through late 2025 but has now turned flat to slightly lower. That shift shows the long-term uptrend has lost its footing, and the 1.1620 area is major overhead resistance. The price structure is clearly bearish. Since the January spike toward 1.2080, lower highs have formed near 1.1900 in February, 1.1850 in April, and 1.1710 in August. The August rally failed right at the 200-day, a classic sign that sellers use the long-term average to add positions, and the September decline then sliced through the 50-day. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is deeply oversold at -87.93, below its signal line at -84.62 and still falling. Downside momentum is strong and has not yet shown signs of turning. There is no bullish divergence at this stage, since the SMI keeps making new lows as price declines. Oversold conditions alone do not reverse a trend, but they do signal that the move is stretched and a relief bounce could come at any time. Price is also closing in on major support at 1.1330, the late-June low, which together with the late-July low near 1.1360 forms a potential double-bottom floor. That zone is the key test. If price revisits or slightly undercuts 1.1330 while the SMI forms a higher low, the resulting bullish divergence would be a strong warning of a base. Without that signal, a daily close below 1.1330 would confirm a new yearly low and target 1.1200, a psychological level. The preferred strategy is to sell rallies toward the 1.1520 moving average cluster rather than chase the market into oversold support, with a stop loss above 1.1540, just beyond the 50-day moving average.

The 4-hour chart has a bearish short-term outlook, with every trend signal aligned to the downside. Price at 1.1380 trades below the 14-period (1.1426), 50-period (1.1483), and 200-period (1.1581) moving averages. All three slope lower and sit in bearish order, which defines a steady downtrend. The 50-period crossed below the 200-period in mid-September, a death cross that confirmed the August rally had turned into a broader decline. Since then, the 14-period has capped every bounce, showing sellers are in firm control. The price structure shows a series of lower highs, from 1.1710 in late August to 1.1650 in early September and about 1.1500 in mid-September, with each rally weaker than the one before. The SMI stands at -84.87, below its signal line at -83.72, deep in oversold territory. Crucially, it made a lower trough than the mid-September low near -75 as price made a lower low. Momentum is therefore confirming the price decline rather than diverging from it, and there is no bullish divergence to suggest buyers are returning. This supports the bearish view, although oversold readings make the short term vulnerable to a sharp short-covering bounce. Short positions are best set up on rallies into the 14-period moving average at 1.1426, with a stop loss above 1.1500, the mid-September swing high that sits just above the 50-period average. Downside targets are 1.1360, the late-July lows, and then 1.1330, the June low and the major support that also anchors the daily chart. Traders should take partial profits into this support zone. If price holds 1.1330 while the SMI forms a higher low, that bullish divergence would call for tightening stops or exiting shorts. A 4-hour close above 1.1483 would neutralize the short-term bearish outlook.

Wednesday 23rd September

EUR/USD has turned lower again after another failed attempt to hold above its long-term trend. The pair peaked near 1.2080 in late January. Since then it has made a series of lower highs: around 1.1900 in February, 1.1850 in April, 1.1710 in August, and 1.1650 in early September. It has also made a lower low near 1.1330 in late June. The August rally briefly lifted price above the 200-day moving average (green line), but that break failed. The average has since flattened and begun to turn down at 1.1625, confirming it as major resistance. When a market repeatedly fails at a turning 200-day, the long-term trend is shifting from neutral to bearish. At 1.1441, price is now below all three averages. The 14-day (red line, 1.1541) is crossing beneath the 50-day (yellow line, 1.1539). That crossover signals that short-term momentum is accelerating to the downside, and it makes the 1.1540 confluence the first resistance on any rebound. Price is also testing the March swing low near 1.1420. A daily close below that level would confirm a continuation of the lower-high, lower-low structure and target the June–July lows around 1.1335–1.1360. The Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply oversold, with %K at -83.58 below the signal line at -80.74, and it is still falling. There is no bullish divergence yet: momentum is at its most extreme reading of the year and is confirming the decline rather than fading. Oversold conditions warn that a relief bounce could come at any time, but in a downtrend they are not a buy signal on their own. A potential hidden bullish divergence would only form if price holds above the 1.1335 summer low while the SMI turns up from these extremes, and that would be the first sign of a bottom. Until then, traders should sell rallies toward the 1.1540 moving-average cluster, targeting 1.1420 and then 1.1335, with a stop above 1.1560. A daily close above the 200-day at 1.1625 would cancel the bearish bias.

The 4-hour chart shows a firm short-term downtrend since the early-September lower high near 1.1650. Price has fallen through all three moving averages, which are now stacked in bearish order. The 14-period (red line) is at 1.1463, the 50-period (yellow line) at 1.1508, and the 200-period (green line) at 1.1585, which has rolled over. A bearish stack with a declining 200-period confirms that sellers control the short-term trend, and each average now acts as layered resistance. Over the past several sessions price has formed a tight bear-flag-style consolidation between 1.1440 and 1.1490. A bear flag is a pause within a downtrend, and it usually resolves in the direction of the prior decline. The latest candles are pressing on the floor of that range. The SMI has just made a bearish crossover, with %K at -50.03 below the signal line at -45.28, after a weak bounce that failed near -25. That failure shows sellers are back in control. There is, however, an early bullish divergence to watch. The SMI’s mid-September trough reached about -75, but it is now only near -50 as price retests the same lows around 1.1440. That suggests downside momentum is weakening. The divergence is unconfirmed and would only matter if price reclaimed the 14-period at 1.1465 with a bullish SMI crossover. Until then, the bearish outlook stands. Traders can sell a 4-hour close below 1.1435, or rallies toward 1.1465, targeting the March low at 1.1420 and then the summer support near 1.1360. The stop should sit above 1.1515, beyond the consolidation top and the 50-period average. A move back above 1.1515 would confirm the divergence and point to a corrective bounce toward the 200-period near 1.1585.

Tuesday 22nd September

The daily EUR/USD chart shows a market that has decisively broken down from its late-summer rally, with price at 1.14661 now trading below all three key moving averages — the 14-day (red, 1.15557), 50-day (yellow, 1.15395), and 200-day (green, 1.16264) — a bearish stacked configuration confirming that both short- and longer-term trend structure have turned negative. Price had rallied strongly off the July low near 1.1350 back above the 200-day MA in August, briefly testing 1.18, but that advance has since fully reversed, and the 200-day MA at 1.16264 — which had capped price for most of the year before that August breakout — is now again acting as firm overhead resistance, an important “failed breakout” signal that often precedes further downside. The Stochastic Momentum Index has collapsed to a deeply oversold -82.9/-78.9, its lowest reading on the chart in the visible history, and while the sheer extremity of this reading raises the probability of at least a short-term relief bounce, there is currently no bullish divergence (price making a lower low while SMI makes a higher low) to suggest the downtrend is exhausted — this is simply a fast, momentum-confirmed decline rather than a stalling one. A break below the 1.14000 support would expose the year’s broader range low near 1.12000, while only a reclaim of the 1.15395-1.15557 moving-average cluster would begin to repair the technical picture and open a retest of 1.16264; traders positioned short should place a stop loss above 1.16264 to protect against a failed-breakdown reversal, given how extended the SMI already is.

The 4-hour chart confirms the bearish short-term picture, with price at 1.14667 trading below the 14-period (red, 1.14751), 50-period (yellow, 1.15274), and 200-period (green, 1.15883) moving averages, all of which are now sloped downward or flattening after the August rally faded — the 200-period MA in particular has flipped from support back to resistance following the failed push above 1.17, mirroring the daily chart’s failed-breakout structure at a shorter-term scale. The moving averages remain stacked in proper bearish order (14 below 50 below 200), reinforcing that sellers control the tape across multiple intraday lookback windows. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -36.9/-35.2, a moderate negative reading rather than a deeply oversold extreme, which suggests this timeframe’s momentum has room to fall further before reaching exhaustion levels — unlike the daily chart, there’s less immediate technical argument for a near-term bounce here, and no divergence is currently present between price and the SMI to suggest the decline is losing steam. Immediate support sits at the psychological 1.14000 level, with a break below exposing the July lows near 1.13500, while resistance at 1.15274 (50-period MA) would need to be reclaimed to shift the short-term tone neutral, with the 1.15883 level (200-period MA) as the more significant hurdle above that; a stop loss placed above 1.15274 is appropriate for traders holding short positions, giving the trade room through minor consolidation without exposing it to a full trend reversal.

Monday 21st September

The daily EUR/USD chart depicts a currency pair oscillating within a broad range that has trended sideways-to-lower since the February spike toward 1.1900: price closed at 1.14849, now trading below both the 14-day MA (1.15658) and the 50-day MA (1.15390), which have both turned down and now sit as overhead resistance following the recovery rally that ran from the August low near 1.1400 up to the September high near 1.1750 before rolling over again. The 200-day MA at 1.16280 remains above current price and continues to cap the pair’s longer-term structure, and this configuration — spot below all three moving averages, with the shorter-term averages now bending lower — keeps the longer-term bias at neutral, reflecting a market without a clear directional edge on the higher timeframe. The Stochastic Momentum Index has plunged to -74.124/-72.217, deep into oversold territory, and this sharp momentum decline mirrors the price rollover from the recent 1.1750 high rather than diverging from it, meaning the SMI is confirming the current downside pressure rather than warning of an imminent reversal — though readings this extreme do raise the odds of at least a near-term bounce or stabilization. A daily close back above the 1.1566–1.1628 MA cluster would be needed to shift the bias constructively, while a break of 1.1400 would open the door to the 1.1250 base; a stop for range-based positioning is best placed just outside whichever boundary a trade is built around, given the lack of trend conviction on this timeframe.

The 4-hour chart shows a clearer bearish short-term structure: price at 1.14846 has fallen below the 14-period MA (1.14772 — barely holding just under spot), the 50-period MA (1.15505), and the 200-period MA (1.15906), with all three averages now sloping downward after the pair’s failed attempt to sustain the rally toward 1.1750 in late August/early September. This bearish MA alignment — shorter-term averages below the longer-term ones and all declining — confirms that short-term sellers have regained control following the reversal from the September peak, and the MA cluster around 1.1550–1.1591 now represents a well-defined resistance shelf on any near-term bounce. The Stochastic Momentum Index at -47.687/-50.659 sits in negative territory but is not yet at oversold extremes, and notably the main SMI line has crossed just above its signal line even as price continues to probe fresh session lows — this is an early, modest bullish momentum divergence (price making marginal new lows while momentum stops deteriorating at the same pace) that traders should watch for confirmation, since it can sometimes precede a short-term bounce even within a broader downtrend. Given the bearish MA structure, the short-term outlook favors continuation toward the 1.1450 area with a deeper target at 1.1400 if the August low is retested, while a stop for short positions is best placed above the 50-period MA at 1.1550, since a reclaim of that level alongside a rising SMI would suggest the modest divergence noted above is developing into a genuine short-term reversal.

Friday 18th September

The daily chart shows EUR/USD having rolled over decisively from its 2026 highs near 1.1800, tracing a series of lower highs through the spring before a sharp August rally that has since faded, leaving price back at 1.14806 and now trading below all three key moving averages — the 14-day (1.15733), 50-day (1.15368), and 200-day (1.16293). This bearish stacked alignment, where price sits beneath every major average and the shorter-term lines have crossed below the longer-term one, confirms that sellers are back in control across multiple timeframes, with the declining 14-day and 50-day MAs now acting as immediate overhead resistance on any bounce attempt. The Stochastic Momentum Index has fallen sharply to -76.8/-71.0, moving deep into oversold territory as the recent bounce off the August highs failed and price rolled back down; while an extreme oversold reading like this can sometimes precede a short-term relief bounce, the speed and depth of the decline here — falling from an overbought extreme above +60 just weeks earlier — reflects strong bearish momentum rather than a divergence, since price is making fresh lows in step with the falling oscillator rather than diverging from it. Given this alignment of price and momentum, the bearish bias is reinforced: traders should watch for a break of the 1.14000 support zone (the July/August base) to open the way toward 1.11800, while a recovery back above 1.15368 would be needed to challenge the bearish view. A stop loss placed above 1.16000, just above the 200-day MA, is recommended for short positions to protect against a sharp reversal.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price ($1.14803) is trading below all three moving averages — the 14-period (1.14969), 50-period (1.15677), and 200-period (1.15924) — mirroring the daily chart’s bearish structure and confirming that the steep sell-off from the early-September peak near 1.1700 has firmly reversed the shorter-term uptrend that had carried price up from the August low. The declining 200-period MA, now curling lower after topping out, marks the ceiling of the recent failed rally and represents a significant resistance hurdle that would need to be reclaimed to shift sentiment back to neutral. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -55.6/-57.7, negative but not yet at a fresh extreme, and importantly it is moving in alignment with price rather than diverging — both have been making lower lows together through the decline, which reinforces rather than undermines the bearish case, since a genuine divergence (price falling while momentum flattens or rises) is not present here. Immediate support lies at the 1.14000 psychological level, and a break below it would expose a deeper slide toward 1.13000, last tested in March; on the upside, a recovery through 1.15677 would be the first sign that selling pressure is easing. A stop loss above 1.15300, just above the 14-period MA, is recommended for short-term short positions to limit risk while giving the trade room within the current downtrend.

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