Friday 6th November

The daily chart shows EUR/USD trying to stabilise after a steep September–October sell-off. That decline took the pair from the late-August high near 1.1715 down through the June–July base around 1.1335–1.1345. The longer-term structure is still bearish. The 50-day moving average (yellow) at 1.1345 crossed below the 200-day moving average (green) at 1.1542 in mid-September, a “death cross” that confirmed the medium-term trend had turned down. Both averages are falling and sit above price as resistance. Notably, the 50-day MA now lines up almost exactly with the broken July lows near 1.1340, which makes 1.1340–1.1345 a strong resistance zone because broken support often becomes resistance. On the positive side, price has reclaimed the 14-day moving average (red) at 1.1195. It has also spent the past three weeks building a base between roughly 1.1105 and 1.1270, with a double bottom at the mid-October low near 1.1115 and the early-November low near 1.1105. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is the key reason the bias is neutral rather than bearish. While price made a marginally lower low in early November, the SMI bottomed near –25, far above its deeply oversold October trough near –85. That is a strong bullish divergence: the latest push lower had very little selling momentum behind it, which often marks the late stage of a decline. The SMI has since crossed bullishly, with the blue line at 25.19 above the orange signal line at 14.79, and it is rising toward the overbought threshold. These are early signs of a momentum-led recovery. The constructive strategy is to buy dips toward the 14-day MA at 1.1195 or the 1.1105 range low, with a stop loss below 1.1080. A daily close above the 1.1270 range high would complete the double bottom and target first the 1.1345 resistance zone, then the pattern’s measured objective near 1.1435 (the 165-pip height of the base added to the breakout). On the other hand, a daily close below 1.1100 would invalidate the divergence and resume the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psychological level.

The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD trading sideways in a 1.1105–1.1270 range after the sharp downtrend from the September high around 1.1650. The latest rally from the 1.1105 low has stalled right where two resistances meet: the declining 200-period moving average (green) at 1.1238 and the 1.1270 range ceiling, which also capped the late-October bounce. The 200-period average has sloped steadily lower since mid-September and has turned back every recovery attempt, so it remains the line that defines the short-term downtrend. Price at 1.1222 is now just below that average and also below the 14-period moving average (red) at 1.1236. The 50-period moving average (yellow) at 1.1185 has flattened and is the first support. The SMI is signalling that the bounce is losing strength. It peaked near 60, slightly below its mid-October peak near 70, even though price tested the same 1.1270 high. That is a mild bearish divergence, showing weaker buying pressure on this retest of resistance. The SMI has also made a bearish crossover, with the blue line at 8.46 below the orange signal line at 16.26, which points to a short-term pullback inside the range. On this timeframe there was no bullish divergence at the recent lows: the late-October SMI trough near –90 was deeper than the mid-October one, so the bullish signal comes only from the daily chart. Taken together, the short-term outlook is bearish within the range. Selling near 1.1238–1.1270 targets the 50-period MA at 1.1185 first and then the 1.1105 range low, with a stop loss above 1.1290. Traders following the daily bullish divergence can use a pullback toward 1.1105–1.1185 as the better-value area to buy. A sustained 4-hour close above 1.1270 would break the range, flip the short-term outlook to bullish, and open the 1.1345 daily resistance zone.

Thursday 5th November

The daily chart shows EUR/USD in a broader downtrend since the February peak near 1.2050. The pair has produced a clear sequence of lower highs: roughly 1.1850 in April, 1.1720 in August, and 1.1650 in September. The sharp September–October selloff carried price below the July lows near 1.1350 into a consolidation range between 1.1120 and 1.1280. The moving average structure remains bearish. The 50-day moving average (yellow) at 1.1353 sits below the 200-day moving average (green) at 1.1545, a death-cross configuration, and both averages are sloping lower, which confirms that medium- and long-term momentum favour the dollar. Notably, the 50-day average now coincides with the broken July lows, so 1.1353 is a strong confluence resistance where former support has become resistance. Against this backdrop, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) shows a significant bullish divergence. Price made a marginally lower low near 1.1120 in late October, below the early-October low near 1.1150, yet the SMI bottomed only around −25 compared with its deeply oversold trough near −85 in early October. This marked improvement in momentum while price edged lower signals that selling pressure has largely run out. The SMI has since crossed above its signal line and moved into positive territory, with the blue line at 21.29 above the orange line at 6.76. Price has also reclaimed the 14-day moving average (red) at 1.1196. The divergence argues against pressing short positions, while the bearish moving-average structure argues against a trend reversal call, which is why the bias is neutral. A daily close above the 1.1280 range ceiling would confirm the divergence and target the 1.1353 confluence of the 50-day average and the July lows. Long positions on that breakout should carry a stop loss below 1.1110, beneath the late-October low. Conversely, a break below 1.1120 would negate the divergence and resume the downtrend toward 1.1000.

The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD recovering from the late-October low near 1.1120. Price at 1.1235 now trades above the 14-period moving average (red) at 1.1216 and the 50-period moving average (yellow) at 1.1180, and the 14-period has crossed above the 50-period. This bullish crossover signals that short-term momentum has shifted in favour of buyers after weeks of range trading. However, price is now pressing against the declining 200-period moving average (green) at 1.1245. Price has not traded above this level since mid-September, so it is the key barrier separating a range-bound recovery from a genuine short-term trend change. Just above it, the 1.1280 ceiling of the October range adds a second layer of resistance. The SMI is giving an early warning. The blue line at 33.21 has crossed below the orange signal line at 39.72 after failing to sustain readings above +40. This bearish crossover near overbought territory, at the exact point where price meets the 200-period average, suggests the rebound is losing momentum. There is no bearish divergence yet, since price and SMI peaks have moved together over the past week. The setup therefore calls for confirmation rather than anticipation, and the short-term outlook is neutral. A 4-hour close above 1.1280 would clear both the 200-period average and the range ceiling, aligning with the daily bullish divergence and targeting 1.1353. Long positions on that breakout should use a stop loss below 1.1180. Rejection at the 200-period average, confirmed by the SMI falling back below zero, would favour a pullback toward the 50-period average at 1.1180. A break below that level would expose a retest of the 1.1120 range floor.

Wednesday 4th November

The daily chart is neutral for the longer term. The primary downtrend is still in place, but a strong bullish momentum divergence argues against pressing shorts at current levels. EUR/USD is at 1.1193, sitting on the 14-day moving average (red) at 1.1193 and well below the 50-day (yellow) at 1.1361 and the 200-day (green) at 1.1548. The 50-day crossed below the 200-day in early summer, a “death cross,” and both averages are now falling. The 50-day is declining especially steeply, which shows the strength of the September–October selloff from 1.1650. The move found a floor around 1.1110 in mid-October. The pair has since built a sideways base between roughly 1.1105 and 1.1265, with the late-October retest of the low holding at almost the same level, near 1.1107. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) shows a clear bullish divergence at that retest. In mid-October the SMI hit an extreme oversold reading near -88. When price returned to the same area in late October, the SMI bottomed only around -25. That means sellers had far less force on the second test, and a near-equal double low with sharply higher momentum is a classic early sign that a downtrend is losing control. %K at -6.11 is now rising above its signal line at -12.87 and heading toward the zero line, which supports the case for a recovery attempt. The trend structure still needs confirmation, though. The 1.1265 range high is the trigger level. A daily close above it would complete the base and target 1.1360, where the falling 50-day moving average meets the broken June–July lows around 1.1335–1.1360, a strong resistance zone. A close below 1.1105 would cancel the divergence and resume the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psychological level. The preferred approach is a long on a confirmed daily close above 1.1265, targeting 1.1360, with a stop loss below 1.1180. If instead price closes below 1.1100, a short targeting 1.1000 is preferred, with a stop above 1.1200.

The 4-hour chart is neutral in the short term, with price range-bound below a falling long-term average. EUR/USD at 1.1193 is sitting on the 14-period moving average (red) at 1.1193 and above the 50-period (yellow) at 1.1174. The 50-period has flattened as the October consolidation has replaced the earlier steep decline. Overhead, the 200-period moving average (green) at 1.1251 is still sloping down and has capped every rally since mid-September. The latest bounce stalled just under it, near 1.1235. That level sits right in front of the 1.1265 range high, so 1.1251–1.1265 is a strong resistance zone. A falling 200-period average usually acts as dynamic resistance until price closes above it decisively. The SMI on this timeframe does not share the daily chart’s bullish divergence. The late-October trough near -88 was lower than the mid-October trough near -75, which confirms the retest of 1.1110 rather than signalling exhaustion. The rebound has also made a lower momentum peak, about +55 against +70 in mid-October, along with a lower price high. Now %K at 9.36 has crossed below its signal line at 11.87 and is turning down toward zero. This indicates the bounce is losing steam beneath resistance and suggests price will rotate back toward the middle and lower end of the range. Immediate support is the 50-period moving average at 1.1174, followed by the 1.1110 double-low floor that anchors the daily setup. The short-term approach is to trade the range. Selling rallies into 1.1240–1.1260 targets 1.1174 and then 1.1110, with a stop loss above 1.1300. Buying near 1.1110 is valid only with a stop below 1.1080. A sustained 4-hour close above the 200-period moving average and the 1.1265 range high would turn the short-term outlook bullish, in line with the daily breakout trigger, and open the path to 1.1360.

Tuesday 3rd November

The daily chart for EUR/USD remains in a clear longer-term downtrend. The sharp September–October selloff from the 1.1650 area pushed price to its lowest levels of the year, and the pair is now basing near 1.1085–1.1100. Both the 50-day moving average (yellow) at 1.1370 and the 200-day moving average (green) at 1.1552 are sloping lower. The 50-day MA has been below the 200-day MA since late May, a death-cross configuration that signals medium- and long-term momentum firmly favouring sellers. Price at 1.1198 sits well beneath both averages and is just testing the 14-day moving average (red) at 1.1196. This short-term average had capped every recovery attempt during the decline, so a sustained hold above it would be the first sign of stabilisation. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is giving an important counter-signal. In early October it bottomed near -85, deep in oversold territory. When price retested and marginally undercut that area in late October, the SMI formed a much shallower trough near -30. This bullish divergence shows selling pressure fading even as price probed lower. The SMI line has also crossed back above its signal line, now at -12.03 versus -18.85, confirming improving momentum. In a strong downtrend, however, a divergence of this kind more often produces a corrective bounce than a full trend reversal, especially while price remains beneath the falling 50- and 200-day MAs. Immediate resistance is the mid-October swing high at 1.1270, followed by the 50-day MA at 1.1370, the most likely ceiling for any relief rally. Support is the October double-bottom area at 1.1085. A break below it would void the bullish divergence and target the psychological 1.1000 level. Traders favouring the dominant bearish trend could sell a corrective bounce toward 1.1270–1.1350, targeting 1.1085 and then 1.1000, with a stop loss above 1.1400 to protect against a reclaim of the 50-day MA.

The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD stabilising within a sideways range of roughly 1.1085 to 1.1270 after the steep October decline. Price at 1.1197 has recovered above both the 14-period MA (red) at 1.1185 and the 50-period MA (yellow) at 1.1178. The 14-period MA has crossed back above the 50-period MA, a modest bullish crossover showing short-term buyers regaining some control after the late-October low near 1.1085. However, the falling 200-period MA (green) at 1.1260 caps the upside and aligns with the mid- and late-October swing highs around 1.1250–1.1270. This confluence makes 1.1260 the key short-term ceiling, and the 200-period MA’s downward slope confirms the broader trend still points lower. The SMI reflects this tug-of-war. It rallied from deeply oversold levels near -88 to 31.94 but has now crossed below its signal line at 37.11 just beneath the overbought threshold, an early sign that the bounce is losing steam. Unlike the daily chart, the 4-hour SMI made a deeper trough at the late-October low than in mid-October, so there is no bullish divergence on this timeframe to support a sustained breakout. Its latest peak (about 50) is also lower than the mid-October peak (about 70), consistent with fading rally momentum. Immediate resistance is the 200-period MA at 1.1260, followed by 1.1350, the early-October breakdown zone. Support lies at the 50-period MA at 1.1178, then the range floor at 1.1085. With price trapped between rising short-term averages and a falling 200-period MA, a range-trading approach is most appropriate. Traders could sell near 1.1250–1.1260, targeting 1.1178 and then 1.1085, with a stop loss above 1.1300. A 4-hour close above 1.1300 would shift the bias bullish and open a move toward 1.1350.

Monday 2nd November

The daily chart shows a bearish longer-term bias, but momentum is diverging in a way that argues against pressing new shorts at current levels. EUR/USD at 1.1159 is trading below all three key moving averages, and they are stacked in bearish order: the 14-day at 1.1191 is below the 50-day at 1.1379, which is below the 200-day at 1.1556. All three are falling. That alignment means short-, medium- and long-term average prices are all declining together, which is the textbook definition of a sustained downtrend. The 50-day has been below the 200-day since early summer, confirming that the medium-term trend has turned against the euro. The September collapse from roughly 1.1650 also broke decisively through the June–July base near 1.1350. Under the support-resistance polarity principle, that zone now caps any deeper recovery. Since early October, price has stalled in a tighter 1.1100–1.1260 range, and the 14-day average has acted as dynamic resistance throughout, rejecting the late-October bounce. The SMI shows where price closes relative to the midpoint of its recent high-low range, and it is sending a more nuanced message. In early October it bottomed near -85, deep in oversold territory. Price has since retested and slightly undercut that low near 1.1100, but the SMI is only at -31.44. That is a clear bullish divergence: the latest probe lower came with far less downside momentum, which often signals that selling pressure is exhausting and a base may be forming. The divergence has not yet been confirmed, though. The SMI is just below its signal line at -29.94 and turned lower after failing near zero, so the downtrend has not been broken. Taken together, the trend favors the downside, but the divergence makes selling into weakness near 1.1100 an unfavorable trade. The preferred approach is to sell rallies into the 1.1190–1.1260 zone, where the 14-day average meets the mid-October swing high. The first target is 1.1100, the October–November lows, and the second is the 1.1000 psychological level. A stop loss above 1.1300 sits beyond the October range high. A daily close above 1.1260 with the SMI crossing back above zero would confirm the bullish divergence, shift the bias to neutral, and open a recovery toward the 50-day average near 1.1380.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook, with price coiling inside a narrowing range just above its lows. EUR/USD at 1.1159 is pinned beneath the 14-period moving average at 1.1161 and the 50-period average at 1.1182. The 200-period average at 1.1270 is falling steeply and has capped every rally since mid-September. The October range is defined by the 1.1100 floor and the mid-October high near 1.1265. That high now coincides with the 200-period average, which makes the 1.1265–1.1270 area the key short-term pivot. Momentum on this timeframe has been less constructive than on the daily chart. The late-October dip to roughly 1.1100 came with an SMI trough near -90, below the mid-October trough of around -75. Momentum confirmed that new low, so there is no bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart. The bounce that followed pushed the SMI to about 55 but stalled at the 50-period average. The SMI has since dropped to 4.81, below its signal line at 12.89. That bearish crossover from near-overbought levels signals short-term momentum has rolled back in favor of sellers. Short-term rallies are therefore likely to fail beneath the 50-period average. A 4-hour close below 1.1100 would complete a breakdown from the October range. The measured-move objective from the roughly 155-pip range height projects toward the 1.0950–1.1000 area, which lines up with the 1.1000 psychological level as the second support. Traders can sell rallies toward 1.1180, targeting 1.1100 first and 1.1000 on a confirmed range break, with a stop loss above 1.1225, just above the late-October bounce high. Given the bullish divergence on the daily chart, it is prudent to take partial profits at 1.1100 rather than assume an immediate break. If price holds 1.1100 and the 4-hour SMI turns up through its signal line, the short-term outlook would shift to neutral. A sustained move above the 200-period average at 1.1270 would invalidate the bearish view.

Friday 30th October

The daily chart shows a neutral longer-term bias. EUR/USD remains in a clear downtrend, but a strong bullish divergence is now challenging that trend. The pair trades at 1.1185, below all three key moving averages, which are stacked in bearish order: the 14-day SMA (red) at 1.1196 sits below the 50-day SMA (yellow) at 1.1389, which sits below the declining 200-day SMA (green) at 1.1560. Stacking of this kind means short, medium and long-term trends all point lower. The 50-day has been below the 200-day since a death cross in June, and its steep downward slope reflects how quickly the pair fell from the 1.1650 September high to the 1.1150–1.1270 range in October. Price action, however, is starting to show exhaustion. Last week’s break to a new low near 1.1105 was rejected quickly, and the pair has rebounded to test the 14-day SMA. The Stochastic Momentum Index is the main reason the bias moves from bearish to neutral. When price made its early-October low near 1.1155, the SMI bottomed near -82, deep in oversold territory. On last week’s lower price low at 1.1105, the SMI reached only about -30. That is a pronounced bullish divergence: price made a new low but downside momentum was far weaker, which often signals that a downtrend is running out of steam and that a meaningful relief rally may follow. The SMI has also crossed above its signal line (-22.38 versus -24.48), a bullish crossover that adds early confirmation. Given this divergence, traders should avoid opening new shorts at current levels. Immediate resistance sits at 1.1200, where the 14-day SMA and a round number coincide, followed by 1.1270, the mid-October high and the top of the month-long range. Support is at 1.1150, the floor of the October range, then 1.1105, last week’s low. A daily close above 1.1270 would confirm the divergence, shift the bias to bullish and target the 50-day SMA at 1.1390, with a stop loss below 1.1150. A daily close below 1.1105 would invalidate the divergence and resume the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psychological level.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral short-term outlook. EUR/USD has bounced sharply from last week’s low and is now testing a key moving average. The pair trades at 1.1186, above the 14-period SMA (red) at 1.1144 but pressing against the 50-period SMA (yellow) at 1.1189. The 200-period SMA (green) at 1.1281 is still falling well overhead. The 50-period average has capped every rally since the September breakdown, including the mid-October high near 1.1270, so a sustained break above it would be the first sign that the short-term downtrend is losing control. The 200-period SMA lines up almost exactly with that 1.1270 swing high, making 1.1270–1.1280 a strong resistance zone. The Stochastic Momentum Index shows a powerful momentum thrust: it surged from about -90 to 55.93, well above its signal line at 31.72, and into overbought territory. A reversal this fast from deeply oversold usually reflects short covering and strong buying pressure. Unlike the daily chart, however, the 4-hour chart shows no bullish divergence at the lows. The late-October SMI trough near -90 was deeper than the mid-October reading, matching the lower price low. So the bounce has momentum behind it but has not yet produced a confirmed short-term bottom. The SMI is now overbought just as price meets the 50-period SMA, which raises the chance of a pause or rejection here. Immediate resistance sits at 1.1190 (the 50-period SMA), followed by 1.1280 (the 200-period SMA and mid-October high zone). Support is at 1.1145 (the 14-period SMA, close to the October range floor near 1.1150), then 1.1105 (last week’s low). Short-term traders can buy a 4-hour close above 1.1200, targeting 1.1270–1.1280, with a stop loss below 1.1140. If price is rejected at the 50-period SMA and the SMI turns down from overbought, short-term shorts targeting 1.1105 with a stop above 1.1215 would be the better trade. A break above 1.1280 would shift the 4-hour outlook to bullish, in line with the daily divergence.