Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 7th August

The daily chart shows price still working within a broader downtrend that began after the January spike toward 1.19–1.20, with the pair having ground down to the mid‑1.14s before staging a sharp, fast rally into the current 1.1520 close. That rally has pushed price back above both the 14‑period (1.14621) and 50‑period (1.14708) moving averages, which is a short‑term positive, but the 200‑day average (green line, 1.16295) still sits well above current price and continues to slope downward — meaning the dominant multi‑month trend remains bearish until price can reclaim that line. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged into overbought territory (blue 70.2, orange 67.9), which historically on this chart has coincided with local tops rather than sustained breakouts, so the speed of the recent move is itself a caution flag even though there’s no clean bearish divergence yet since this SMI peak is actually lower than the readings seen at the December and April swing highs. Given the tug-of-war between a bullish short-term MA crossover and a still-bearish 200MA/long-term structure, the daily bias is best read as neutral-to-cautiously-constructive: a push through 1.1580 and then the 200MA zone near 1.1630–1.1650 would be needed to shift the longer-term tone bullish, while a stall here with the SMI rolling over would favor a retest of 1.1480 and potentially the 1.1400 area where the 14/50MA cluster currently sits. A logical stop for anyone positioning long off this bounce would sit just below 1.1480, since a break there would undo the recent recovery structure.

he 4-hour chart tells a cleaner short-term story: price has rallied decisively through all three moving averages — the 200-period (green, 1.14307), the 50-period (yellow, 1.14909), and is now testing the 14-period (red, 1.15374) — which is a textbook bullish stack developing after months of the averages being inverted (14 below 50 below 200) during the prior downleg. The Stochastic Momentum Index has swung hard off a deeply oversold extreme (prior trough near ‑90) up to ‑29.8/‑11.6, with the fast line crossing above the signal line — a bullish momentum crossover that supports the case for continuation, though the index is not yet overbought so there’s room for the move to extend before it becomes stretched on this timeframe. Immediate resistance sits around 1.1540, roughly the 14MA and the intraday high, with a break opening the door to the prior mid-July supply zone near 1.1580; failure to clear that level would likely produce a pullback toward the 50MA at 1.1490, with the 200MA at 1.1430 as the deeper support that needs to hold for the short-term bullish structure to stay intact. A stop loss placed just below 1.1490 (the 50MA) balances giving the trade room against the average while protecting against a failed breakout back into the prior range.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Thursday 6th August

The daily chart shows the euro stabilizing after a multi-month slide from the highs near 1.20, with price now at 1.15553 and back above both the 50-day moving average (yellow) at 1.14741 and the 14-day average (red) at 1.14566 — a genuine near-term positive after several months of grinding lower beneath these same averages. That said, the 200-day moving average (green) at 1.16297 remains overhead and has yet to be tested by this bounce, so the longer-term trend is still best described as neutral-to-cautious rather than a confirmed reversal; until that level is reclaimed, the broader structure remains a lower-high, lower-low pattern dating back to the February peak. The Stochastic Momentum Index has turned up sharply, with the %K line at 79.66088 crossing above its signal line at 69.33568 and pushing into overbought territory after spending much of the summer oscillating in a tight, muted range — this rapid acceleration of momentum, arriving well ahead of any equivalent price strength relative to the broader downtrend, is a bullish divergence that suggests short-term buying pressure is building, though the speed of the move into overbought conditions also argues for some caution about chasing it further without a pause. Immediate resistance is at 1.16297 (the 200-day average), with a further target near 1.18000, close to the April relief-rally high, if the recovery extends; support sits at 1.14566 (the 14-day average), with 1.13000 — near the recent multi-month lows — as the deeper level that would need to hold to keep this recovery attempt intact. Traders looking to participate could favor pullback entries toward 1.14566–1.14741, with a stop below 1.13000, while a more conservative approach would wait for a confirmed close above 1.16297 before treating this as more than a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend.

The 4-hour chart shows a more decisively bullish short-term picture: price has broken above all three moving averages, with the 14-period average (red) at 1.15322, the 50-period average (yellow) at 1.14731, and the 200-period average (green) at 1.14269 all now sitting beneath the current 1.15553 print, confirming that short-term control has shifted to buyers after the sharp summer decline that had these averages capping every prior rally attempt from above. The Stochastic Momentum Index is running hot at 73.03125 with its signal line at 63.56005, deep into overbought territory on this timeframe, and while price and momentum are still moving higher together (no bearish divergence has formed yet), a reading this extreme this early in the move increases the likelihood of at least a short consolidation or partial retracement before the advance continues. Immediate resistance is at 1.16000, a round-number level roughly coinciding with the daily chart’s 200-day average, with 1.17000 as a secondary target if the rally extends further. On a pullback, 1.15322 (the 14-period average) is the first support, with 1.14269 (the 200-period average) as the deeper level that would need to hold to preserve the bullish short-term structure. Given the overbought extreme, more conservative traders may prefer to wait for a pullback toward 1.15322–1.14731 before entering, with a stop below 1.14269, while those following the breakout directly should keep stops relatively tight just below 1.15322 given how stretched momentum has become.

Wednesday 5th August

The daily EUR/USD chart shows price at 1.15269 in a notable short-term reversal, having just broken back above both the 14-day (1.14464, red) and 50-day (1.14755, yellow) moving averages after a multi-month downtrend that took the pair from the April highs near 1.18 down to a low around 1.1400 in late July. The 200-day average (1.16296, green) remains well overhead and continues to slope downward, so the broader longer-term trend structure is still technically bearish, but the fact that price has reclaimed both faster averages in a single sharp move is significant — it shows short-term buying pressure has decisively overwhelmed the sellers who had controlled the tape since spring, and the 50-day at 1.14755 should now act as the first line of support on any retest. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged to 63.816/55.622, moving from deeply oversold territory near -50 just a few weeks ago into what’s now approaching overbought — this rapid momentum shift, arriving alongside price breaking its downtrend structure rather than just bouncing within it, constitutes a genuine bullish momentum divergence, since the SMI’s low during this recent bottom was noticeably shallower than the extreme readings seen back in the March/April selloff despite price making comparable or lower lows. Given this combination of a structural break above both short and medium averages plus strengthening momentum, a neutral-to-bullish stance is warranted, with an upside target at 1.16296 (the 200-day) if the reversal extends, while a stop below 1.13000 would protect against this proving a false breakout within the larger downtrend.

The 4-hour chart shows an even sharper version of the same reversal, with price at 1.15272 having just broken decisively above all three moving averages — the 14-period (1.15190), 50-period (1.14530), and 200-period (1.14236) — in a steep vertical move off the range lows near 1.1400 that had held for the better part of three weeks. This kind of sharp, high-momentum break above a well-tested moving-average cluster after an extended basing period is typically a stronger signal than a gradual grind higher, since it suggests a real shift in short-term positioning rather than routine drift. The Stochastic Momentum Index has rocketed from deeply oversold levels to 16.475/18.025, and while this reading has not yet reached overbought territory, the speed of the move from below -50 to positive territory in a short window reflects powerful momentum behind the reversal, with plenty of room left before the oscillator becomes stretched — a more favorable setup for continuation than a rally that arrives already overbought. Short-term traders should favor the bullish breakout, targeting 1.16000 initially with a further extension toward 1.17000 if momentum sustains, while a stop below 1.14236 (the 200-period average, the last line of the prior range) protects against the breakout failing and price slipping back into the multi-week consolidation.

Tuesday 4th August

EUR/USD’s daily chart has spent the last several months grinding lower after topping out near 1.1815 in April, with the pair sliding down through the 1.15 handle and briefly dipping under 1.14 before the sharp bounce shown at the far right of the chart back to 1.1506. The moving averages are still stacked in a mildly bearish configuration — the 14-day MA (1.1438) sits just below the 50-day (1.1477), both of which remain beneath the 200-day MA (1.1630) — meaning the pair needs to clear that longer average before the broader downtrend could be considered broken. The Stochastic Momentum Index has snapped up sharply to 53.0 from deeply oversold territory just a few sessions ago, and that speed of recovery — with price now poking back above both short-term averages — constitutes a legitimate bullish divergence against the recent lows, since the prior SMI trough was accompanied by price making a fresh low that hasn’t been retested since. That combination argues for a neutral-to-cautiously-constructive near-term stance rather than pure bearish continuation: a push through the 200-day MA at 1.1630 would open the door toward the 1.1800 area, while failure to hold the 14-day MA near 1.1438 would suggest the bounce was corrective and put the downtrend back in control. This is a description of the chart, not a recommendation — I’m not a financial advisor, and any stop-loss should reflect your own risk tolerance.

The 4-hour chart shows a decisive short-term reversal, with price breaking sharply above all three moving averages after basing for several weeks just under 1.14 — the 14-period MA (1.1437), 50-period MA (1.1437), and 200-period MA (1.1422) have all converged into a tight band that price has now cleared to the upside, a configuration that often marks the end of a consolidation phase and the start of a fresh directional move. The Stochastic Momentum Index has turned up from a mildly negative reading and is currently at 11.1, still well shy of overbought, which means there’s room for the current advance to continue before momentum becomes a constraint, unlike prior bounces this summer that stalled out near +50 well before price could sustain new highs. Given the fresh break above the moving-average cluster and momentum that isn’t yet stretched, the near-term bias favors further upside toward the 1.1600 area, with the moving-average cluster around 1.1420–1.1437 serving as the support zone that would need to hold for this breakout to remain valid; a drop back below 1.1422 would call the breakout into question and suggest a return to the recent range. As always, treat this as a read of current conditions rather than a specific trade signal, and verify levels against a live feed before acting.

Monday 3rd August

EUR/USD has spent the past year in a broad, choppy range roughly between 1.12 and 1.20, with a spike toward 1.20 in early 2026 followed by a steady grind lower into the 1.14–1.15 zone, where it’s now consolidating at 1.1534, up a modest 0.09% today. The moving average picture is mixed: the 200-day MA at 1.1631 sits above current price and has been sloping gently downward, while the 50-day (1.1480) and 14-day (1.1437) sit below and around price, with the 14-day having just curled upward as price bounced off recent lows — signaling short-term stabilization within a longer-term downtrend that hasn’t been decisively reversed. This is where the momentum divergence is notable: the Stochastic Momentum Index dropped into deeply oversold territory during the recent slide toward 1.1332 but has now sharply reversed to 60.07/38.64, a strong momentum swing that’s outpacing the actual price recovery so far — price is still well below the 200-day MA even as momentum has already turned decisively bullish, a pattern that can either mark the start of a genuine reversal or a sharp relief bounce within a larger downtrend. Given price remains below the 200-day MA, the bias stays neutral rather than outright bullish, with an upside target near 1.1800 (the April high) if 1.1637 is reclaimed, while a failure to hold recent gains would expose the 1.1200 area; a stop loss on long positioning is best placed below 1.1437, since a break there would undermine the recent bounce.

The 4-hour chart shows a sharper, more immediate reversal: price has broken decisively higher out of a multi-week downtrend, surging from around 1.1300 to 1.1534 in a short burst, and now trades above both the 14-period MA (1.1503) and the 50-period MA (1.1423), which is the first confirmation that short-term control has shifted to buyers after months of the moving averages capping every rally. The Stochastic Momentum Index has spiked hard into overbought territory at 73.54/72.44, reflecting the speed of this reversal — while strong momentum supports the near-term bullish case, a reading this extreme also raises the risk of a near-term pause or pullback as the move digests, since sharp momentum spikes like this often precede at least a partial retracement even within an emerging uptrend. Immediate resistance is at 1.1556 (today’s high), with a larger target near 1.1700 if the breakout extends and clears the 200-period MA at 1.1421 zone from above; support sits at 1.1503, with a deeper floor at 1.1423 where the 50-period MA would need to hold to keep the short-term bullish structure intact. Given the bullish MA alignment on this timeframe, a stop loss for long positioning is best placed below 1.1423, since a break of that level would signal the breakout has failed and the prior downtrend may be reasserting itself.

Friday 31st July

EUR/USD’s daily chart is in the process of stabilizing after a steady decline from the April 2026 high near 1.1900 down to a low around 1.1350 in late July, with price at 1.15172 now trading above both the 14-day MA (1.14287, red) and the 50-day MA (1.14821, yellow), but still below the 200-day MA (1.16313, green), which keeps the longer-term picture in a neutral rather than fully bullish stance. The reclaim of the two faster moving averages is a short-term positive, but the 200-day MA overhead remains the key longer-term gatekeeper — price would need a sustained close above 1.1631 to shift this from neutral to genuinely bullish. The Stochastic Momentum Index at 46.32/17.39 has turned up sharply from a recent low near -50 to now cross into positive territory, and this rise has come alongside price posting a clear higher low relative to the June trough, meaning momentum and price are aligned rather than diverging — a constructive signal, though the SMI is not yet at an extreme that would flag exhaustion, so there’s room for this move to extend before caution is warranted. Immediate resistance is at 1.1631, the 200-day MA, with a longer-range target at 1.1800 corresponding to the upper part of the range that contained price through Q1–Q2. On the downside, the 14-day MA at 1.1428 is the first support, having already acted as a springboard for the current bounce, with a deeper pullback finding support at 1.1250, an extension of the recent range low. Given the neutral longer-term backdrop, a balanced approach is warranted: traders can look for continuation toward 1.1631 on a hold above 1.1428, using a stop below that level, while a decisive break of 1.1428 would suggest the recovery is faltering and the broader corrective trend is resuming.

On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD has staged a sharp short-term rally, with price at 1.15170 breaking decisively above all three moving averages — the 14-period (1.14529, red), 50-period (1.14096, yellow), and 200-period (1.14227, green) — after these had been stacked in bearish order through the entire July decline, a clean impulsive move that confirms short-term buyers have taken firm control. The Stochastic Momentum Index reading of 80.73/79.84 is deep into overbought territory, among the highest readings seen on this timeframe over the past several months, which signals the recent surge has moved a long way very quickly and increases the likelihood of a near-term pause or partial retracement even within an otherwise healthy uptrend; this is a momentum-extension warning rather than a bearish divergence, since price is making the highs alongside the elevated SMI reading rather than stalling beneath them. Immediate resistance is at 1.1520, the most recent intraday high, with a break above opening the path back toward the daily 200-day MA at 1.1631. Support comes in first at 1.1453 (the 14-period MA), the level that should hold on any near-term pullback if the rally is genuine, with a deeper retracement finding support at 1.1410, near the 50- and 200-period MA cluster that marked the base of this breakout. Given the overbought SMI, the more prudent approach is to wait for a pullback toward 1.1453–1.1410 to add exposure rather than chasing the current spike, using a stop below 1.1410; a break of that support zone would suggest this bounce has failed and the broader daily downtrend may reassert itself.