Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bullish

Wednesday 21st January

EUR/USD remains in a constructive daily uptrend following the strong rebound from the 2024–2025 base, with price holding above the rising 200-day SMA (green) and the 50-day SMA (pink), which is clustered just below current price around 1.1669—a classic sign that the medium/long-term trend has flipped back in favour of buyers. The 14-day SMA (blue) is also elevated and closely tracking price, reinforcing that pullbacks are being absorbed quickly rather than developing into sustained selloffs. The key technical feature on the daily chart is the repeated rejection / supply around the 1.1800 area (black horizontal level), which has capped upside attempts and is now the immediate “line in the sand” for continuation. Momentum is currently soft, with the Stochastic Momentum Indicator sitting in negative territory (around -31.31%), signalling that upside pressure has cooled despite price holding near the highs—this reflects a loss of trend acceleration and raises the probability of consolidation or a dip back into moving-average support before the next push higher (i.e., a momentum fade rather than a confirmed trend reversal). As long as price continues to defend the 1.1660 region (the moving-average cluster), the higher-probability path is for the market to rebuild momentum and re-test 1.1800, with a break opening the door towards 1.2000. For trend-following long exposure, a logical protective stop sits below 1.1500 (beneath the prior swing structure), as a sustained move below that zone would suggest the breakout leg has failed and the market is reverting back into a broader range.

On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD is behaving like a market in a range/consolidation phase after a strong run-up, with price rotating around the 50-period SMA (pink) near 1.1647 and repeatedly respecting the major horizontal resistance zone at 1.1800. The 200-period SMA (green) is rising and sitting just under price, which typically indicates underlying demand is still present and dips are more likely to be bought than sold aggressively; however, the inability to hold above the 1.18 ceiling keeps the short-term structure “neutral” until a clean breakout is achieved. Momentum is currently strong on this timeframe, with the Stochastic Momentum Indicator elevated in positive territory (about 63.99%), implying the latest rebound has force—but because price is still capped beneath the same resistance, the implication is “strong momentum inside a range,” which often precedes either (a) a breakout attempt, or (b) a sharp rejection if buyers fail to convert momentum into higher highs. The tactical setup therefore favours patience: bullish continuation becomes higher probability on a sustained break and hold above 1.1800 (next upside magnet 1.1900), while failure at resistance keeps pullback risk live toward 1.1650, and then 1.1550 if selling pressure builds. For short-term long positioning, the cleaner risk-defined trade is buying support (around 1.1650) with a stop below 1.1550; alternatively, breakout traders can use a stop just back under 1.1720–1.1700 after a confirmed move above 1.1800, to protect against a false breakout back into the range.

Tuesday 20th January

EUR/USD is sitting on a critical pivot zone, with the 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA around 1.166465, which makes this level “decision support” (when medium and long-term averages compress together, the market often transitions into either a renewed trend or a deeper mean-reversion move). Structurally, the pair has recovered strongly off the prior lows, but the Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply negative at -64.00%, signalling that downside momentum is currently dominant even though price is still holding near the moving-average base; that mismatch is a classic warning that the uptrend has stalled and a corrective leg can extend before buyers regain control. In that context, 1.1750 is the first reclaim level (prior supply/upper consolidation), and a sustained break back above it would improve the bullish case toward 1.1900. On the downside, a daily close below 1.1665 would be a meaningful trend-break signal (loss of MA confluence support), with the next downside target around 1.1500 (prior reaction zone and a natural retracement objective). Trading approach: trend-following longs are higher quality only if price holds above 1.1665 and momentum begins to lift; otherwise, rallies into 1.1750 can be sold tactically with a stop above 1.1900, while bulls protecting existing positions typically want risk defined below 1.1500 if the market rolls over.

On the 4-hour chart, price is consolidating around 1.164282, again right on the same moving-average cluster area, which reinforces that the market is trading at a key balance point rather than trending cleanly. Momentum here is more supportive than the daily: the SMI is positive at 49.06%, indicating the latest push is a genuine rebound attempt rather than a dead-cat bounce, but until price can build acceptance above nearby resistance, the move still fits a choppy range profile. Immediate resistance is 1.1700 (recent swing ceiling), then 1.1750 as the bigger breakout trigger; a hold above 1.1750 would likely force trend continuation back toward the prior highs. Support sits at 1.1640 (current pivot/MA base), and a clean 4-hour break below it shifts the short-term bias bearish again, exposing 1.1550 as the next support zone where buyers should be expected to defend. Trading approach: tactical longs make sense only while above 1.1640 with a stop below 1.1550, targeting 1.1700 then 1.1750; if 1.1700/1.1750 rejects and SMI rolls over, short setups gain probability targeting 1.1640 then 1.1550, with a stop above 1.1750 to avoid getting caught in a breakout.

Monday 19th January

EUR/USD is sitting at a key inflection zone around 1.166260, where price is effectively “back-testing” prior structure and the moving averages are converging, which is why the tape feels more like consolidation than a clean trend. The broader recovery off the 2022–23 lows is still evident (higher base and price no longer pinned below the long-term average), but the most recent swing is clearly risk-off: the Stochastic Momentum Index has collapsed to -75.98%, signalling heavy downside momentum and a market that is stretched to the downside in the near term (often a condition that can precede a bounce, but only if support holds). Technically, the 1.1660–1.1600 band is the first “make-or-break” support area (it’s both a psychological zone and a pivot region where buyers have previously defended); if it holds, the market is likely to mean-revert back toward 1.1800, and a decisive reclaim of 1.1800 would reopen the bullish continuation case toward 1.2000. If 1.1600 fails on a daily close, the structure shifts toward a deeper correction, with 1.1400 as the next major downside target (prior consolidation shelf). For positioning, longs are only higher-quality on evidence of stabilisation above 1.1600–1.1660 (e.g., a higher low / bullish reversal candle), using a stop below 1.1600; otherwise, rallies into 1.1800 remain vulnerable to rejection while momentum is this negative.

On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD is trading around 1.164861 and the price action is pressing into a key support/pivot area while momentum remains decisively bearish: the Stochastic Momentum Index at -59.15% confirms sellers still have control of the short-term swing, even though the move is now stretched enough to create bounce risk. The moving averages are acting as dynamic “decision lines” here: price is slipping under the shorter-term averages and leaning toward the long-term mean, which typically produces either (1) a sharp mean-reversion bounce back into 1.1700–1.1800, or (2) a continuation breakdown if bids don’t show up quickly. The immediate level to watch is 1.1650; sustained trading below it increases the probability of a push into 1.1600, and a clean break of 1.1600 would likely accelerate the correction toward 1.1500. Tactically, shorts are best expressed on failed rebounds into 1.1700 (lower-high setup) with a protective stop above 1.1800, while aggressive dip-buy attempts only make sense if price holds 1.1600–1.1650 and the SMI starts to turn up (momentum confirmation), using a tight stop just below 1.1600 to avoid being caught in a breakdown.

Friday 16th January

On the daily chart, EUR/USD is best classified as neutral to mildly bearish, with price consolidating around the 1.1662 region while sitting at a key inflection area where trend and mean-reversion forces are competing. The prior downswing has clearly eased, but the market has not re-established a clean bullish structure: price has been oscillating around the 50-day SMA (pink) and is now pressing into the zone where the 200-day SMA (green) is rising into price, creating a “decision point” where trend-followers will look for either acceptance above the long-term average or rejection back into the range. The 14-day SMA (blue) is flat and close to price, reinforcing that the current phase is consolidation rather than trend expansion. Momentum is the biggest warning signal: the SMI is deeply negative at -73.4%, which tells us downside momentum has accelerated even though price has not broken down aggressively—this mismatch often precedes either (1) a delayed downside follow-through (price catches down to momentum), or (2) a sharp mean-reversion bounce if the selling exhausts quickly. In other words, the pair is vulnerable while momentum remains this weak, and there is no convincing bullish divergence yet. Resistance is clearly defined at 1.1700–1.1720, then 1.1800 (the upper range and prior swing zone). Support sits at 1.1600 initially, then 1.1500 (a more meaningful breakdown level that would confirm the daily structure rolling over). Given the momentum profile, rallies into resistance are susceptible to failure unless the SMI lifts meaningfully and price holds above the 200-day SMA; for risk management, a stop above 1.1810 suits short-biased positioning, while any medium-term long thesis is cleaner only on a sustained daily close above 1.1800 with improving momentum.

The 4-hour chart shifts the bias more clearly to bearish, with price hovering around 1.1663 but displaying weakening short-term structure as the moving averages compress and price struggles to hold above the near-term trend zone. The 14-period SMA (blue) has started to roll over, and price is chopping around the 50-period SMA (pink), a sign of loss of upside control; meanwhile, the 200-period SMA (green) is rising beneath the market and is close enough to matter as immediate support, but it has not yet sparked a clean rebound. Momentum confirms the downside risk: the SMI is -68.7%, placing it deep in negative territory and indicating sustained bearish pressure; importantly, price has not made a fresh impulse high while momentum has deteriorated, which supports a bearish continuation view rather than a healthy consolidation. Unless we see a clear bullish divergence (price holding a higher low while SMI makes a higher low), the higher-probability path remains either a breakdown or another leg of range weakness. Resistance is 1.1700 first, then 1.1750, where repeated failures have formed and where any rebound would likely meet supply. Support is 1.1650–1.1630 (the immediate floor), then 1.1600, with 1.1500 as the broader downside target if 1.1600 gives way. Tactically, this setup favours either selling rallies into resistance or waiting for a breakdown confirmation below 1.1600; a practical stop for short positions above 1.1760 keeps risk aligned with the current bearish bias, while a short-term countertrend long only becomes attractive if price reclaims 1.1700 and the SMI rotates upward out of deeply negative territory.