Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Friday 12th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a bearish longer-term bias as price at 1.15693 has broken below all three key TMAs in a technically significant development — the 14-day TMA at 1.15943 (red), the 50-day TMA at 1.16714 (yellow), and the 200-day TMA at 1.16777 (green) all sit above current price, with the notable feature being the near-complete convergence of the 50-day and 200-day TMAs at 1.16714 and 1.16777 respectively, forming a tightly clustered dual resistance ceiling that represents a formidable overhead barrier; this convergence is technically meaningful because it reflects that both intermediate and long-term equilibrium are aligned at approximately the same level, meaning any attempted recovery rally will face concentrated selling pressure from two major moving averages within a 60-pip band. The broader price structure on the daily chart reveals a pair that has spent the majority of the past year range-bound between approximately 1.1400 and 1.2000, with the February 2026 peak near 1.2000 representing the range high and the April low near 1.1400 defining the range floor; the current location near 1.1569 places price in the lower third of this range, and the break below the TMA cluster confirms that the short-term recovery from the April lows has failed to sustain above equilibrium, shifting the directional bias back to bearish. The SMI reads -40.13 (signal) and -47.46 (smoothed), with the smoothed line sitting deeper than the signal line — a configuration indicating that momentum remains negatively skewed and the recent price decline has been sustained rather than a brief flush; critically, there is no confirmed bullish divergence present, as the current SMI readings are approaching but have not yet matched the depth of the April oversold lows while price has not yet retested those corresponding price lows, meaning the divergence setup is not yet actionable and the momentum profile supports continued downside pressure. The immediate overhead resistance is defined by the broken 14-day TMA at 1.15943, which has now flipped from support to resistance following the recent daily close below it, with the more substantial dual resistance of the 50-day and 200-day TMA convergence at 1.16714–1.16777 representing the upper ceiling for any corrective bounce. On the downside, the first meaningful support is found near 1.14800, a level corresponding to the prior swing low consolidation visible in the April price action, with a deeper extension toward the 1.14000 psychological round number should bearish pressure intensify toward the range floor. Traders should treat any daily close recovery toward the 1.15943 resistance as a potential short entry opportunity, with a stop loss placed on a close above 1.17000 to protect against a reassertion of the prior range, while targeting 1.14800 as the primary downside objective.

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD presents a neutral short-term outlook characterised by a notable but unresolved tension between the bearish price structure and an emerging bullish momentum signal, creating a technically ambiguous setup that warrants careful observation rather than aggressive directional positioning. Price at 1.15687 is trading below the 50-period TMA at 1.15758 (yellow) and the 200-period TMA at 1.16527 (green), both of which represent overhead resistance, while the 14-period TMA at 1.15459 (red) sits just below current price as the nearest dynamic support — this configuration, where price is sandwiched between the shorter-term TMA support below and the intermediate/longer-term TMA resistance above, is the defining characteristic of a range-bound or consolidating market environment rather than a trending one, and directly informs the neutral classification. The 200-period TMA at 1.16527 is particularly significant as resistance because it represents the longer-term equilibrium on this timeframe and has consistently capped price during the June consolidation, with each attempt to reclaim it having failed and resulting in the current pullback toward the 1.1550–1.1570 zone. The SMI presents a critical and actionable signal — the signal line has crossed to +11.99 while the smoothed line remains at -6.59, meaning the fast momentum component has just crossed from negative to positive territory while the smoothed confirmation has not yet followed; this divergence between the signal and smoothed lines of the SMI itself is a leading indicator of potential momentum shift and, combined with the observation that the June price lows were accompanied by progressively less negative SMI readings compared to the May lows (a developing bullish divergence between price troughs and SMI troughs), suggests that downside momentum is waning and a short-term stabilisation or recovery attempt is plausible. However, the bullish divergence is not yet fully confirmed by a price recovery above the key resistance levels, which is why the bias remains neutral rather than shifting to bullish. The 50-period TMA at 1.15758 is the immediate resistance that price must close above on a 4-hour basis to validate the momentum recovery signal, with the 200-period TMA at 1.16527 representing the more significant target and the level that would need to be reclaimed to shift the short-term outlook to bullish. Support is provided by the 14-period TMA at 1.15459, with a break below that level opening a path toward the 1.15000 psychological level, and further extension toward 1.14500 in a more bearish scenario. Traders should await a confirmed 4-hour close above 1.15758 as the trigger for a cautious long with a target at 1.16527, placing a stop loss below 1.15300 to protect against a failed breakout, while those positioned short should tighten stops to just above 1.15943 given the emerging momentum divergence that warns against aggressively pressing the short side at current levels.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Thursday 11th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a neutral longer-term bias, reflecting a market that has been range-bound in broad terms since mid-2025, oscillating between roughly 1.1400 and 1.2000 without establishing a clean directional trend, and is currently positioned at a technically precarious level of 1.1540 — below all three key moving averages. The 14-day TMA at 1.1597, the 50-day TMA at 1.1670, and the 200-day TMA at 1.1678 are tightly clustered within an exceptionally narrow 81-pip band, a configuration that is technically significant because it indicates long-term trend compression and means that the moving averages have effectively lost their ability to provide meaningful directional guidance individually — the entire complex must be treated as a unified resistance zone between 1.1597 and 1.1678. The price having broken below all three TMAs is a near-term bearish development, yet the 200-day TMA continues to rise gradually from well below current levels, preserving the longer-term structural uptrend that has been in place since 2025 and preventing an outright bearish classification at the daily level. The SMI at -59.73 with its signal line at -60.04 is deeply in oversold territory, and the critical momentum divergence observation is that the SMI line and signal line are virtually converging at similar depths — neither has yet formed a bullish crossover, meaning downside momentum has not been absorbed, but the near-identical readings suggest the rate of decline in momentum is flattening, which historically precedes a crossover signal. Comparing the current SMI trough to the equivalent price lows from prior cycles visible on the chart, the market is approaching levels where bounce attempts have previously materialized; however, the absence of a confirmed bullish crossover means acting on this observation is premature. Resistance on any recovery is initially encountered at the 14-day TMA at 1.1597, with the 50/200-day TMA confluence zone at 1.1670–1.1678 serving as the decisive overhead barrier — a clean daily close above this cluster would signal a meaningful shift back to bullish bias. To the downside, the 1.1480 level represents prior consolidation support visible in the April recovery base, with a deeper target at the 1.1400 round number if selling accelerates. Traders should await a confirmed SMI bullish crossover from current oversold levels before establishing long positions, targeting a recovery toward 1.1670, with a stop loss on a daily close below 1.1480.

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD presents a neutral short-term outlook, shaped by a technically compelling momentum divergence setup that counterbalances the bearish price structure and creates a balanced risk environment where neither bulls nor bears have a decisive edge. Price at approximately 1.1541 has recently broken below the 14-period TMA at 1.1546 and sits beneath the 50-period TMA at 1.1587 and 200-period TMA at 1.1658 — a bearish moving average alignment that confirms the intermediate downtrend from the May highs near 1.1800 remains intact. The 200-period TMA at 1.1658 is declining and represents the most significant overhead resistance on the 4-hour timeframe, as a recapture of this level would represent a structural trend reversal signal. However, the SMI reading on the 4-hour chart is the critical differentiator from an outright bearish classification: the SMI line at -5.89 with its signal at +1.80 reveals that a bullish crossover has just formed from near the oversold boundary — the signal line has crossed above the SMI line and is holding positive territory, constituting a momentum buy signal that directly contradicts the bearish price-MA structure and is the primary reason for the neutral rather than bearish designation. This SMI crossover occurring with price testing the 14-period TMA at 1.1546 creates a technically meaningful inflection point, where the momentum signal suggests buyers are beginning to absorb selling pressure near current levels even as the price structure remains under the moving average complex. The interplay between the bearish price structure and the bullish SMI crossover defines the neutral bias — bulls need a confirmed 4-hour close above 1.1587 to validate the momentum signal and target the 200-period TMA at 1.1658, while bears need a reversal of the SMI crossover and a close below 1.1480 to reassert control and expose 1.1400. Traders should monitor the 1.1587 level as the decisive trigger: longs above this level targeting 1.1658 with a stop loss below 1.1480, and short re-entries on a failed rally and SMI bearish re-cross targeting 1.1400 with a stop above 1.1587.

Wednesday 10th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a bearish longer-term bias as price at 1.15373 has broken decisively below all three moving averages — the 14-TMA at 1.16015, the 50-day MA at 1.16696, and the 200-day MA at 1.16788 — with the notable and technically significant development being that the 50-day and 200-day MAs have converged into an extremely tight cluster between 1.16696 and 1.16788, forming a formidable overhead resistance zone that price must reclaim to reverse the current bearish structure, and the fact that price is now trading approximately 140 pips beneath this confluence reinforces the distribution dynamic that has emerged since the February peak above 1.2000. The broader context reveals that EUR/USD made a significant top in February near 1.2000, followed by a sustained decline through the 200-day MA — a level that had previously acted as dynamic support during the 2025 uptrend — and the recent failure to hold above the moving average cluster in late May/early June, despite a brief recovery attempt, confirms that the former support zone has now converted to resistance, a classic technical principle that adds conviction to the bearish outlook. The Stochastic Momentum Index at -60.623 (signal -60.067) is in oversold territory with both lines tightly aligned and tracking together, which is a critical distinction — there is no divergence present, as the SMI and its signal are moving in lockstep with price to new lows, confirming that bearish momentum is sustained and the oversold reading reflects trend persistence rather than exhaustion; this parallel behaviour between the SMI lines eliminates any contrarian buy signal and demands the bearish directional bias be maintained. Resistance is at the 14-TMA of 1.1602 as the nearest overhead barrier, which aligns with the recent breakdown point and represents the level that must be reclaimed on a closing basis to neutralise near-term selling pressure, followed by the critical 50-day/200-day MA confluence at 1.1670–1.1679; support is identified at 1.1480 corresponding to prior structural lows, with a further downside extension target at 1.1400, and traders should place stop losses above 1.1602 to guard against a mean-reversion spike while maintaining the bearish directional bias.

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD confirms the bearish short-term outlook with price at 1.15367 trading below all three moving averages — the 14-TMA at 1.15385, the 50-period MA at 1.15992, and the 200-period MA at 1.16631 — in a sequentially bearish alignment that mirrors the deterioration on the daily timeframe and confirms multi-timeframe selling pressure, with the 200-period MA having rolled over from the 1.1800 region and now descending steadily, acting as a significant dynamic resistance ceiling approximately 127 pips above current price. Price is currently testing the 14-TMA at 1.15385, which is the only moving average in close proximity to current levels, and a sustained failure to reclaim this level on a 4-hour closing basis would open the path toward the next support cluster; the 50-period MA at 1.15992 and 200-period MA at 1.16631 form a layered resistance structure that would require a significant fundamental catalyst to breach, given the weight of the declining moving average configuration pressing down on any recovery attempt. The SMI at -22.425 (signal -26.733) presents the most technically interesting divergence signal across the two timeframes — the SMI line at -22.425 is notably less negative than the signal line at -26.733, with the SMI having already crossed above its signal line, a configuration that constitutes a mild bullish momentum crossover suggesting that short-term selling momentum may be temporarily decelerating; however, this should be interpreted as a potential relief bounce setup rather than a trend reversal, as both lines remain in negative territory and the price structure continues to print lower highs beneath declining moving averages, meaning any bounce is likely to be sold into at the 14-TMA resistance. Immediate resistance is the 14-TMA at 1.1539, with the 50-period MA at 1.1599 representing the more meaningful barrier for any sustained recovery; support is at 1.1480 corresponding to the prior structural floor visible on both timeframes, with a measured downside target at 1.1400, and traders should manage short positions with a stop loss above 1.1539 to account for any oversold relief rally while remaining aligned with the prevailing bearish trend across both timeframes.

Tuesday 9th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a bearish longer-term bias as price at 1.15289 has broken decisively below all three TMAs — the 14-day TMA at 1.16064, the 50-day TMA at 1.16703, and the 200-day TMA at 1.16794 — a particularly damaging technical development given that all three moving averages are now clustered in an exceptionally tight band between 1.16064 and 1.16794, meaning the market has simultaneously lost support from every major dynamic average in a single breakdown move, and that entire zone now transforms into a dense, multi-layered resistance ceiling that will be formidable to reclaim. The structural context amplifies the bearish reading: EUR/USD peaked near 1.2000 in late January 2026 following a strong rally from the mid-2025 base, and the subsequent price action has been a sustained erosion characterised by progressively lower recovery highs — from 1.1950 in February, to approximately 1.1800 in May, and now breaking below the critical TMA cluster in early June — a classic distribution pattern where each bounce is sold into with increasing conviction, compressing the range of recoveries and signalling that institutional selling pressure is dominant. The 200-day TMA at 1.16794, which had previously served as a long-term anchor and support during the April recovery, has now been penetrated to the downside and is flattening — a subtle but significant signal that the long-term trend that carried EUR/USD higher throughout 2025 is now genuinely at risk of reversing on the macro timeframe. The Stochastic Momentum Index is currently reading -65.77 (signal line at -61.59), deeply embedded in oversold territory, and the critical analytical point here is that while this oversold depth might superficially suggest a bounce is due, there is a clear absence of bullish divergence — as price has made lower lows from the February peak through May and into the June breakdown, the SMI has tracked those successive lows in sympathy without forming any higher-low pattern in the oscillator, confirming that downside momentum is intact and the oversold condition reflects the strength of the trend rather than its exhaustion. Furthermore, examining the SMI behaviour across the prior cycle in November 2025, a similarly deep oversold reading resolved with only a brief and shallow recovery before price resumed lower, providing historical precedent for the current setup behaving as trend continuation rather than reversal. Immediate resistance is defined by the 14-day TMA at 1.16064 — the first TMA price must reclaim on a daily closing basis to begin neutralising the bearish bias — followed by the dense 50-day and 200-day TMA cluster at 1.16703–1.16794 as the major structural resistance zone. To the downside, the 1.14800 level represents significant structural support derived from the April 2026 swing low and prior price congestion, with a breach of that level targeting the 1.14000 psychological round number and key horizontal support. Traders maintaining a short bias should use a daily close above 1.16064 as their stop loss, as reclaiming the 14-day TMA would constitute the minimum condition required to neutralise the immediate bearish momentum.

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD sharpens and confirms the bearish thesis established on the daily timeframe, with price at 1.15289 now trading below all three 4-hour TMAs in a negatively aligned configuration — the 14-period TMA at 1.15537, the 50-period TMA at 1.16093, and the 200-period TMA at 1.16676 — where the progressive stacking of these averages in descending order from the 200-period down through the 50-period and 14-period represents a textbook bearish TMA fan structure, indicating that selling pressure has become entrenched across every medium-term horizon and that the path of least resistance is unambiguously lower. The 4-hour price action since mid-May 2026 has been particularly instructive: following the recovery peak near 1.1800, EUR/USD has produced a relentless sequence of lower highs, with each rally attempt being capped first by the 50-period TMA and most recently by the 14-period TMA at 1.15537, before failing and resuming the downtrend — a pattern that demonstrates the market’s increasing inability to sustain even short-term recoveries, as the overhead TMA resistance becomes progressively closer to price with each failed bounce. The most recent breakdown has accelerated through the 1.1550 support zone with relatively little hesitation, suggesting that there is limited demand at these levels and that sellers are in control of the order flow. The SMI on the 4-hour chart reads -55.77 (signal line at -57.29), in deeply oversold territory, and a notable technical observation here is that the main SMI line at -55.77 sits marginally above the signal line at -57.29, hinting at the very earliest stages of a potential micro-bullish cross forming within the oversold zone — however, this reading must be treated with significant caution and skepticism for two reasons: first, the cross has not yet been confirmed on a sustained basis; and second, in the context of a strongly trending bearish market across both the 4-hour and daily timeframes, SMI crosses within oversold territory frequently generate false signals and are more reliably interpreted as brief consolidation pauses within the larger downtrend rather than as genuine reversal triggers. The only condition under which this nascent SMI cross would become actionable for long positioning is if price simultaneously reclaimed the 14-period TMA at 1.15537 on a 4-hour closing basis, providing the price-momentum confirmation that the reversal has genuine structural support. Absent that confirmation, immediate resistance sits at the 14-period TMA of 1.15537, above which the 50-period TMA at 1.16093 represents a more formidable barrier aligned with the prior breakdown zone; support is targeted at 1.14800 — the April swing low and key structural reference point — with an extension to the 1.14000 psychological level if selling pressure intensifies through that floor. Short-side traders should maintain positions with a stop loss on a 4-hour close above 1.15537, as reclaiming the 14-period TMA is the minimum technical requirement to invalidate the immediate bearish structure.

Monday 8th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a bearish longer-term bias as price at 1.1525 has broken decisively below all three moving averages, which are now stacked in a bearish sequence for the first time since the pair’s extended uptrend from late 2025 — the 14-day TMA at 1.1612 (red), the 50-day TMA at 1.1671 (yellow), and the 200-day TMA at 1.1680 (green) are tightly clustered above current price in a converging resistance band that represents the most formidable overhead obstacle this pair has faced since the March 2026 correction. The significance of this moving average cluster cannot be overstated: the 50-day and 200-day TMAs at 1.1671 and 1.1680 respectively are virtually identical in value — a rare technical confluence known as a “golden cross convergence reversal” where these two long-term averages are compressing together while price trades below them, signaling a decisive shift in the dominant trend from bullish to bearish as the 50-day has now crossed below the 200-day, completing a death cross that typically precedes sustained directional moves to the downside. The price structure on the daily chart reveals a clear sequence of lower highs since the February 2026 peak near 1.2000, with each recovery attempt failing at progressively lower levels — the May bounce failed at 1.1800, confirming that sellers are increasingly aggressive and buyers are losing conviction at higher prices. The SMI at -68.83 with its signal at -60.16 is deeply oversold, but critically, there is no constructive bullish divergence forming — the SMI is making fresh lows in lockstep with price, which means the oversold reading reflects the velocity of the decline rather than an exhaustion of bearish momentum, and historical precedent on this chart shows that oversold SMI conditions during trending markets can persist for multiple weeks before a meaningful reversal materializes. The horizontal dotted support level visible near 1.1490 on the chart represents a structurally significant prior consolidation zone from the November 2025 range, and a daily close below this level would open a measured move toward the 1.1400 psychological support. Traders with a bearish bias should look to sell rallies into the 1.1612–1.1671 resistance cluster, with a stop loss placed above 1.1720 to account for the tight moving average convergence zone, targeting 1.1490 as the immediate objective and 1.1400 as the extended downside target.

The 4-hour chart confirms a firmly bearish short-term outlook as EUR/USD at 1.1525 trades below all three moving averages in a classically bearish configuration — the 14-period TMA at 1.1590 (red), the 50-period TMA at 1.1622 (yellow), and the 200-period TMA at 1.1673 (green) are all positioned above price and declining in slope, creating a layered overhead resistance structure that progressively narrows the path for any meaningful recovery and signals that the dominant 4-hour trend is unambiguously to the downside. The 14-period TMA at 1.1590 is the most immediately actionable resistance level, as it represents the dynamic ceiling that has capped every intraday bounce throughout the June selloff — each touch of this moving average from below has been met with renewed selling, a behavior that confirms this level is being actively defended by institutional sellers who are using short-term strength as an opportunity to build or add to short positions. The 50-period TMA at 1.1622, sitting just above the 14-period TMA, creates a dual-layer resistance zone in the 1.1590–1.1622 band that aligns precisely with the daily chart resistance structure, reinforcing the confluence of selling pressure at these levels across multiple timeframes — a multi-timeframe resistance alignment that significantly increases the probability of rejection on any bounce toward this zone. The SMI on the 4-hour timeframe is at an extreme reading of -78.95 with its signal at -72.61, placing it in deeply oversold territory approaching the historical floor of this indicator’s range for this instrument; importantly, however, a critical observation emerges from the divergence analysis — the current SMI low at -78.95 is nearly matching the extreme oversold depths seen during the March 2026 crash to 1.1400, yet the current price of 1.1525 is materially higher than those March lows, which constitutes a textbook bullish divergence signal where price makes a higher low while the momentum indicator makes a lower low, suggesting that the downside momentum is disproportionately extreme relative to the actual price decline and a short-term relief bounce toward 1.1590–1.1622 is increasingly probable before the broader downtrend resumes. This divergence does not invalidate the bearish bias but does counsel against aggressive short entries at current levels; instead, traders should exercise patience and await a bounce toward the 1.1590–1.1622 resistance band to initiate or add to short positions at more favorable levels, with a stop loss above 1.1680 (above the 200-period TMA), targeting the 1.1490 support zone as the primary downside objective and 1.1400 as the extended target on a confirmed break lower.

Friday 5th June

The daily chart for EUR/USD reflects a neutral longer-term bias as price at 1.16129 finds itself in a technically constrained position — trading below all three TMAs simultaneously, with the 14-day TMA at 1.16247 (red), the 50-day TMA at 1.16713 (yellow), and the 200-day TMA at 1.16813 (green) all stacked in a tightly converging overhead cluster between 1.16247 and 1.16813, creating a formidable resistance band that has effectively capped the pair’s recovery attempts since the April peak above 1.19000. The convergence of the 50-day and 200-day TMAs at 1.16713 and 1.16813 respectively is particularly significant from a technical standpoint, as this near-overlap creates a dual-dynamic resistance zone that price must clear decisively on a closing basis before any bullish bias can be re-established — historically, when these two longer-term averages converge after a major swing, they act as a magnet for price while simultaneously posing a formidable barrier, meaning the market is likely to oscillate around these levels before committing directionally. The 14-day TMA at 1.16247 is the most immediate overhead resistance and the first test for any recovery attempt; failure to reclaim this level on a daily close basis would confirm that sellers retain control of the short-term trend within the longer-term neutral framework. On the downside, the 1.15000 psychological level represents the nearest meaningful support below current price, corresponding to a prior area of consolidation visible in the chart structure from the November 2025 period; below that, the 1.14000 region — which marked the November 2025 swing low — represents the deeper structural support that would come into play on an extended breakdown. The Stochastic Momentum Index is reading -43.16 on the signal line and -43.53 on the smoothed line, with both lines essentially flat and aligned at near-identical readings in moderately oversold territory — a configuration that signals momentum exhaustion rather than active selling pressure, as the two lines traveling together without divergence between them indicates that the current downward move is losing velocity; however, the absence of a bullish crossover from these levels means there is no confirmed momentum shift, and the SMI’s current reading mirrors the November 2025 trough from which a major rally subsequently developed, suggesting the pair may be approaching a significant inflection point. Traders should wait for a confirmed daily close above 1.16247 before considering long positions targeting 1.16713 and 1.16813, with stop losses below 1.15000; bearish traders should note that sustained pressure below 1.16000 opens the path to 1.15000 as the primary downside target.

The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD confirms a bearish short-term outlook, with price at 1.16127 trading in close proximity to but just below the 14-period TMA at 1.16148 (red), while the 50-period TMA at 1.16314 (yellow) and the 200-period TMA at 1.16785 (green) both slope downward above, creating a bearish TMA stack that reflects the deteriorating short-term momentum since the May peak near 1.18000. The 14-period TMA at 1.16148 is the critical near-term pivot — price has been oscillating around this level with a distinct inability to sustain above it, and each recovery attempt into this level has been met with selling pressure, confirming its role as a dynamic resistance ceiling; the fact that price is currently hugging the underside of this TMA rather than breaking above it is a characteristic bearish signal indicating that sellers are absorbing every uptick. The 50-period TMA at 1.16314 provides the next resistance layer and aligns with a prior breakdown zone from mid-May, adding technical weight to this level as a supply area; above that, the 200-period TMA at 1.16785 represents the macro bearish threshold on this timeframe and corresponds closely to the daily 50-day and 200-day TMA convergence zone, reinforcing the significance of the 1.16713–1.16813 resistance band identified on the daily chart. To the downside, the 1.15500 level represents near-term structural support visible from the intraday lows of late May, and a 4-hour close below this level would accelerate selling toward the 1.15000 psychological support — a level of considerable historical significance on EUR/USD that has acted as both support and resistance across multiple timeframes throughout the past year. The 4-hour SMI is reading -27.07 on the signal line and -27.61 on the smoothed line, with both lines again traveling in close alignment in negative territory — mirroring the pattern observed on the daily chart, this synchronized reading without divergence between the two lines indicates that downward momentum is steady but not accelerating, and prior instances on this 4-hour chart where the SMI reached similar negative readings around -25 to -30 before a bullish crossover developed have preceded short-term bounces; however, the key distinction is that those prior bounces occurred with price nearer to stronger structural support, whereas current price faces layered TMA resistance above, limiting the recovery potential of any SMI-driven bounce. Traders should fade intraday recoveries into the 1.16148–1.16314 resistance zone with stop losses placed above 1.16314, targeting 1.15500 initially, with 1.15000 as the extended downside objective on a confirmed break below the near-term support.