Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Thursday 30th April
The daily chart for EUR/USD presents a neutral longer-term bias, reflecting a pair that has undergone a significant regime change from the extended range-bound consolidation of mid-2025 to a sharp bullish impulse in early 2026, followed by a corrective pullback — leaving the current price at 1.16839 embedded within a remarkably tight moving average cluster that embodies the technical definition of directional uncertainty. The three TMAs are converging at virtually the same level: the 200-TMA at 1.16761, the 50-TMA at 1.16479, and the 14-TMA at 1.17383, with price trading between the 200 and 14-TMAs — a configuration that signals a market in equilibrium where neither bulls nor bears have established dominant control. The structural significance of this moving average compression is profound: the 200-TMA, which has been rising steadily throughout the entire charted period from below 1.08 and now sits at 1.16761, represents the macro bullish anchor of the entire trend from 2025 through 2026, and the fact that price is currently testing it for the first time since the breakout rally is a pivotal moment — if the 200-TMA holds as support on a closing basis, the longer-term bullish structure remains intact; if it breaks, the bias shifts to bearish. The price action narrative is one of a completed impulse: the pair launched from the 1.15–1.16 base in late March 2026 to a peak near 1.2000 in February 2026, then retraced approximately 61.8% of that advance — a Fibonacci retracement level that aligns precisely with the current 200-TMA support zone, adding a second layer of technical significance to the 1.16761–1.16479 support band. The SMI currently reads -19.40 on the main line and -3.11 on the signal, a configuration that reveals a critical and bullish technical dynamic: the signal line (-3.11) is significantly above the main line (-19.40), meaning the smoothed average of recent momentum is less negative than the raw momentum reading — this crossover structure, where the signal has already turned upward and crossed above the main line from oversold territory, is a classic SMI bullish crossover signal that has historically preceded price recoveries in this pair. Furthermore, the fact that the SMI bottomed around -40 during the recent pullback rather than reaching the deeper -60 to -80 oversold levels seen at prior cycle lows represents a bullish momentum divergence: price retraced significantly (from 1.2000 to 1.1650 area) while the SMI failed to reach equivalent oversold depth, suggesting that selling pressure was less intense than the price decline implied and that buyers were absorbing supply more readily than in previous corrections. Immediate resistance is at the declining 14-TMA of 1.17383, where sellers are likely to defend in the short term, with a more significant target at 1.19000 — the congestion zone from the post-peak consolidation; a daily close above 1.17383 would be the first step in restoring the bullish bias. Support is at the 50-TMA of 1.16479, just below the 200-TMA of 1.16761, with the entire 1.16479–1.16761 band representing the critical support zone; a daily close below 1.16479 would shift the bias to bearish and open the path toward 1.15000. Traders should hold off on committing to a directional bias until price either confirms the 200-TMA as support with a close back above 1.17383 or breaks below 1.16479, with a stop loss for any long position placed at 1.16400, just below the 50-TMA, to protect against structural breakdown.
The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD reveals a bearish short-term outlook as price at 1.16832 is trading below both the 14-TMA at 1.17029 and the 50-TMA at 1.17241, with only the 200-TMA at 1.16373 positioned below as support — a bearish moving average arrangement on this timeframe where the declining short and medium-term averages form a layered overhead resistance structure that is capping recovery attempts and directing the path of least resistance downward. The relationship between the 14-TMA at 1.17029 and 50-TMA at 1.17241 is particularly revealing: these two averages have converged within a narrow 21-pip band, creating a dense resistance confluence zone between 1.17029 and 1.17241 that represents double overhead pressure — any 4-hour bar attempting to close above 1.17029 would simultaneously face the 50-TMA as the next barrier, making a clean break through this zone technically demanding and requiring significant bullish momentum to achieve. The price action structure since the April 2026 recovery high near 1.1800 has been a clear sequence of lower highs on the 4-hour timeframe, with each recovery attempt failing below the prior high — the textbook definition of a short-term downtrend that confirms the bearish bias on this timeframe. The SMI on the 4-hour chart is reading -53.24 on the main line and -48.85 on the signal, both deeply in oversold territory and with the main line below the signal line — a bearish SMI alignment where the raw momentum (-53.24) is more negative than the smoothed average (-48.85), indicating that selling pressure is accelerating rather than abating. The critical technical observation here is that there is no constructive divergence forming on the 4-hour SMI: price is making a lower low relative to the early April recovery while the SMI is similarly pushing to new cycle lows in oversold territory — a confirmation of trend rather than a reversal signal, which reinforces the bearish short-term bias rather than providing grounds for a long position. A genuine bullish divergence would require the SMI to form a higher low while price makes a lower low, but the current parallel decline in both price and momentum eliminates this possibility for now. Immediate resistance is at the 14-TMA of 1.17029, the first overhead barrier that must be reclaimed for any short-term recovery, followed by the 50-TMA at 1.17241 as the ceiling of the resistance confluence zone; a 4-hour close above 1.17241 would neutralise the bearish short-term thesis. Support is at the 200-TMA of 1.16373, which aligns closely with the daily TMA support cluster and represents the last line of defence before a deeper decline; a 4-hour close below 1.16373 would expose the 1.15500 level — a prior consolidation zone from the pre-breakout base. Traders positioned short should manage risk with a stop loss above 1.17029, above the declining 14-TMA, with a primary target at the 200-TMA of 1.16373 and a secondary target at 1.15500 if the 200-TMA fails to provide meaningful support on the 4-hour timeframe.
Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Wednesday 29th April
The daily chart for EUR/USD reflects a neutral longer-term bias as price trades at 1.17166, positioned within a technically complex zone where all three TMAs have converged into an exceptionally tight 93-pip cluster — the 14-period TMA at 1.17439, the 200-period TMA at 1.16766, and the 50-period TMA at 1.16505 are stacked within a range that barely spans the distance between the current price and the nearest average, creating a moving average compression that signals maximum directional indecision and warns of an imminent high-volatility breakout in either direction. The broader daily context is important for interpreting this compression: EUR/USD spent much of 2025 in a broad rising channel, rallied to a February 2026 peak near 1.2000, then suffered a sharp March correction that pushed price down to the 1.1400 area — a decline of approximately 600 pips — before recovering aggressively back into the current moving average cluster. This V-shaped recovery has brought price precisely back into the dense TMA band, which is the exact scenario where prior trends are most frequently challenged; price is now sandwiched between the 200-TMA at 1.16766 acting as immediate support and the 14-TMA at 1.17439 acting as the immediate resistance ceiling, with the 50-TMA at 1.16505 providing the next support layer below. A daily close above 1.17439 would represent a bullish resolution of this compression, establishing the 14-TMA as support and targeting a recovery toward the 1.1900 area where the March breakdown accelerated and where significant supply overhangs from the post-peak distribution; conversely, a rejection and close below the 50-TMA at 1.16505 would be a bearish signal resuming the corrective trend toward the 1.1400 structural low. The Stochastic Momentum Index reading of 7.42 on the SMI line and 16.54 on the signal line captures the neutral thesis precisely — both readings are in positive territory above zero but well below the +40 overbought threshold, indicating that the recovery from the March lows has generated only modest momentum; critically, the SMI line has dropped below the signal line despite both being positive, a bearish internal cross suggesting that the recovery momentum is now fading as price tests the 14-TMA resistance, which mirrors similar SMI deceleration patterns seen at prior stalling points in this pair’s history. Traders should not take directional positions until the moving average compression resolves: a long entry above 1.17439 targets 1.1900 with a stop at 1.1650, while a short entry on a close below 1.16505 targets 1.1400 with a stop at 1.1750.
The 4-hour chart for EUR/USD presents a bearish short-term outlook as price at 1.17162 has stalled directly beneath the convergence of the 14-period TMA at 1.17188 and the 50-period TMA at 1.17353 — a double-layer resistance ceiling where the two faster-moving averages are compressing together above current price, a configuration that is exerting immediate downward pressure and has prevented any 4-hour close above 1.17353 over recent sessions. The significance of the 50-TMA at 1.17353 is amplified by its history: this average acted as dynamic support during the January–February 2026 rally and has since flipped to resistance following the March breakdown, representing a textbook support-resistance inversion where prior buyers are now sellers at the same level — this structural memory makes it a formidable ceiling that will require sustained buying conviction to overcome. The 200-period TMA at 1.16306 is rising from below at a gradual pace and represents the major structural support on this timeframe, having served as the launchpad for the April recovery rally; this level is where long-term buyers are expected to defend most aggressively, and a 4-hour close below 1.16306 would be a serious deterioration signal opening the path toward 1.1500, which aligns with the March consolidation lows before the final capitulation. The broader 4-hour structure since the February peak has been a well-defined series of lower highs, and while the April rally from 1.1400 has been sharp, it has not yet managed to establish a higher high on the 4-hour chart above the prior recovery peak near 1.1850, keeping the intermediate structure bearish. The SMI provides the clearest confirmation of the bearish short-term bias: both the SMI line at -12.49 and the signal at -12.02 are in negative territory below zero, with the SMI line marginally below the signal in an active bearish cross — this negative momentum reading is particularly meaningful given that price is trading near the highs of the recent recovery rally, as the divergence between price being near recovery highs while the SMI is in negative territory indicates that the upside move has been driven by thin, exhausting momentum rather than genuine buying conviction, and is highly susceptible to a reversal. Traders with a bearish bias should target the 200-TMA support at 1.16306 as the primary objective, with a secondary target at 1.15000 on a break below, and should place stop losses above the 50-TMA resistance at 1.17353 to protect against an upside breakout that would invalidate the bearish structure.
Tuesday 28th April
The daily chart shows EUR/USD holding around 1.17235 after the April rebound, with price trading slightly below the 14-day moving average at 1.17434 but still above the 50-day moving average at 1.16521 and the 200-day moving average at 1.16769, suggesting the broader structure remains constructive but short-term momentum has cooled. Immediate resistance sits at 1.17434, where the short-term average is capping price, followed by 1.18000, the recent swing resistance area; a daily close above 1.18000 would strengthen the bullish case and open upside toward 1.19000. Support is first located at 1.16769, where the 200-day average is acting as a key trend filter, followed by 1.16521, where the 50-day average provides deeper dynamic support. The SMI remains positive at 20.50 but has rolled lower from an overbought reading, creating mild bearish momentum divergence as price holds near recent highs while momentum fades. Traders should treat the daily outlook as neutral-to-bullish while price remains above 1.16769, with bullish continuation favoured only above 1.17434–1.18000, and a stop loss below 1.16521 for long positions.
The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD attempting to rebuild short-term momentum, with price near 1.17237 and trading above the 14-period moving average at 1.17158 and the 200-period moving average at 1.16234, but still below the 50-period moving average at 1.17446. This creates a neutral-to-bullish setup, as price has stabilised above short-term support but still needs to reclaim the 50-period average to confirm stronger upside continuation. Immediate resistance sits at 1.17446, followed by 1.18000, where the latest rally stalled; a confirmed break above 1.18000 would target 1.19000. Support is located at 1.17158, and a break below this level would weaken the near-term recovery, exposing the 200-period average at 1.16234. The SMI is positive at 32.93 and rising, confirming improving short-term momentum, though price remains below the 50-period average, so confirmation is still required. Traders can maintain a cautiously bullish bias while price holds above 1.17158, with a stop loss below 1.17158 for short-term longs or below 1.16234 for wider positioning.
Monday 27th April
The daily chart shows EUR/USD consolidating around 1.1711 after pulling back from the recent April high near 1.1850, leaving the longer-term bias neutral rather than clearly bullish. Price is currently below the 14-day moving average at 1.1738, which now acts as immediate resistance, but remains above the 200-day moving average at 1.1677 and the 50-day moving average at 1.1655, meaning the broader support structure is still intact. Momentum is positive but weakening, with the SMI falling from overbought territory to around 24.55, while price has also formed a lower high after the recent rally; this shows fading upside momentum rather than a confirmed bearish reversal. A daily close above 1.1738 would improve the outlook and target 1.1850, while a break below 1.1677 would expose 1.1655 and then the prior support zone near 1.1550. For bullish trades, a stop loss below 1.1655 is appropriate, while bearish positioning would need confirmation below the 200-day average.
The 4-hour chart shows EUR/USD under short-term pressure, with price around 1.1711 sitting below the 50-period moving average at 1.1752 and only marginally above the 14-period moving average at 1.1701, while the 200-period moving average at 1.1618 remains the deeper trend support. The recent lower high near 1.1800 and pullback below the 50-period average suggest buyers have lost short-term control, although the price has not yet broken down decisively because it remains above the 200-period average. Momentum is mixed: the SMI has rebounded to around 3.10, but the signal line remains negative near -9.73, indicating an early recovery attempt rather than confirmed bullish momentum. If price reclaims 1.1752, the short-term bias would shift back toward neutral-to-bullish with 1.1800 as the next target; however, failure to hold above 1.1701 could trigger downside toward 1.1618. A bearish stop loss can sit above 1.1752, while bullish traders should use a stop below 1.1618.
Friday 24th April
The daily chart shows EUR/USD consolidating around 1.16850 after pulling back from the recent April high near 1.18000, leaving the longer-term bias neutral. Price is currently below the 14-day moving average at 1.17275, which is acting as immediate resistance, but remains above the 50-day moving average at 1.16566 and the 200-day moving average at 1.16767, keeping the broader structure supported. The key resistance is 1.17275, followed by 1.18000, where prior selling emerged; a daily close above 1.18000 would shift the outlook back toward bullish and open upside toward 1.19000. Support sits at 1.16767, then 1.16566, and a break below this moving-average cluster would weaken the structure and expose downside toward 1.15500–1.15000. The SMI remains positive, with the blue line at 24.57 but below the orange line at 36.58, showing momentum is fading after the recent rally. This bearish momentum divergence, where price is holding near elevated levels while momentum rolls over, argues for caution and supports a neutral stance. A stop loss below 1.16566 is appropriate for long positions, while bullish conviction improves only if price reclaims 1.17275 and then breaks 1.18000.
The 4-hour chart has turned bearish in the short term, with EUR/USD trading around 1.16846 below the 14-period moving average at 1.17144 and the 50-period moving average at 1.17635, while still above the 200-period moving average at 1.16138. This shows short-term downside pressure within a still-supported broader recovery structure. Immediate resistance is 1.17144, followed by the stronger 1.17635 zone, where the recent pullback began to accelerate. Support sits at the 200-period moving average near 1.16138, followed by the broader horizontal support around 1.15000. The SMI is deeply negative, with the blue line at -70.92 and orange line at -71.69, confirming strong downside momentum; however, because both lines are in oversold territory and beginning to flatten, the risk of a short-term relief bounce is increasing. There is not yet a clear bullish divergence, as price continues to pull back while momentum remains weak, so the directional bias remains bearish unless price can reclaim 1.17144. A downside break below 1.16138 would likely extend the move toward 1.15500–1.15000, while a stop loss above 1.17635 is appropriate for short positions.
30 Apr 2026