Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 26th July

The DAX fell 0.50% in Thursday’s trade to close at 18,278. A low of 18,095 on the day was firmly rejected leaving a long tail. This price rejection may indicate further distribution is required before any significant move. Momentum levels are in a no man’s land, also not providing any directional input. Swing highs of 18,650 will be first resistance and then at 18,585. resistance will be at 18,650 and 18,779. It is difficult to change from a neutral position as the index has traded in a wider sideways band for the last 3 months. Currently in the middle of that band.

The 4-hour chart has exhausted the upward impulse from new lows at 18,095 and is again turning downwards. Period moving averages are turning lower. Momentum has moved to a neutral level with this sideways to upwards distribution of the last 5-periods. This indicates to us that the next move will be towards swing lows at 18,026 and consequentially change our outlook to Bearish.  Resistance (and stop level) will be at 18,396 and then at 18,650. support will be at 18,095 and then at 18,026. Outlook changed to Bearish

Daily Chart – Longer-Term Bias: Neutral

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 25th July

The DAX fell 0.90% in yesterday’s trade to close at 18,371. The long tail left on Tuesday’s attempt to advance may be significant, showing a lack of conviction from the buyers. This interim high at 18,650 will be important and then further resistance will be at 18,779. Support at 18,150 and 18,026. The index continues to trade in a triangle formation traced out over the last 2 weeks, we now believe that a break of this either way should provide us with longer term direction

The close below 18,442 on the 4-hour chart dictates that our outlook should change to Neutral. The index has gained support off the 200-period moving average, now at 18,380. It has pushed through that number at times but has always closed above it. Closes below that average will be important and could signify that lower prices are to come. If it was to break falls to support may be rapid as it enters a period of little interim support. The first support will come in at 18,150 and then at 18,026. resistance at 18,650 then 18,779  

Wednesday 24th July

The DAX moved 0.32% higher to close at 18,539.96. The move higher tested 18,650 and left a large tail on a positive day. it also closed above 14-day and 50-day moving average. Whilst the outlook is looking a little more positive for a test of upside we feel it’s prudent to remain with a neutral outlook but expect the next move will be to a positive outlook on a close through 18,650. Resistance is at 18,650 today’s high and then at 18,779. Support at 18,150 and a8,026.

The 4-hour chart has traced out what may be a rounded top, with a swing high at 18,650. The next few periods will be crucial in confirming if this is indeed the case. We maintain our bullish outlook but would change to neutral on a close below 18,442, the low as the top began to form. Momentum has moved to a more neutral level but is pointing down suggesting that sellers have the upper hand. Support at 18,442 and then 18,150. Resistance at 18,650 then 18,779.

Tuesday 23rd July

The DAX closed up 1.68% and has rejected the past 5 days down-move. It has also closed right on 50-day moving average. It has put the market in a more neutral position and the upswing in the stochastic may indicate a further move higher. We think that it would be necessary for a few days of sideways to higher days to confirm that a swing low has been put in at   18,150. Thus we maintain outlook as neutral. Support at 18,150 and then at 18,026. resistance at 18,779 and then at 18,924.

The 4-hour chart shows a confirming pattern that an interim low has been put in at 18,150 and moved higher. It can be argued that the downtrend of the last 5 days has been convincingly broken. A reclose above the 200 period moving average is also constructive. We therefore change our outlook back to bullish looking for a retest of the start of the selloff at 18,779. Resistance will initially be at 18,536. Support, which is critical to maintaining bullish outlook is at 18,150 and then further support at 18,026.

Monday 22nd July

The DAX closed lower by 0.93% to 18,174.1 in Friday’s trade.  it appears to have broken trendline support, but not convincingly. Momentum is moving into an oversold position after 5 consecutive days of down moves. We are not convinced that this breakout will suggest a deeper pullback is on the cards, however the technical picture has deteriorated. A further move lower may need to change our outlook to bearish. Support at interim lows of 18,026 and then at swing low of 17,886. resistance at 18,779.

On the 4-hour chart it appears a rounded bottom is being traced out and the slow stochastic has crossed to the upside from an oversold position. These bullish indicators suggest a low may be being formed. It is too early to confirm this as price action is occurring well below period moving averages. we maintain our neutral outlook Support at swing lows of 18,026 and then at 17,887. resistance at 18,536 and 18,779. maintain neutral outlook

Friday 19th July

The DAX closed lower again overnight, finishing down 114 points, 0.62% at 18,340.83. The break of the secondary trend line and close below 14- and 50-day moving average indicates that a test of interim lows at 17,887 may be the next price move. We therefore amend our outlook to neutral. Tests of short-term uptrend will be the first support at 18,230 then the already mentioned interim low of 17,887. resistance at high of 18,779 and then 18,924.

The 4-hour chart has broken through interim lows of 18,345 and is trading below all period moving averages. The crossover of the 14-period moving average through the 50-period moving average is a bearish signal and indicates that the outlook should be altered, we thus change it to neutral. The longer-term distribution may see the market test lows interim lows of 18,211.50. Further support at 17,887. Resistance at interim high of 18,536 and then swing high of 18,779