Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 22nd September

The DAX slumped -1.45% on Thursday to 15,476. On the daily timeframe, the price is below support at 15,600 although not yet enough to confirm a decisive break. Still, it is prudent to revert to a neutral to bullish outlook. We refrain from turning neutral or bearish on this timeframe given there is the potential for bullish momentum divergence to form as the slow stochastic has not yet confirmed the current low. There is also further support around 15,300 modestly below current levels.

On the 4-hour timeframe, we revert to a neutral stance as a downtrend is in place and short-term momentum negative. Given the highly oversold price and growing probability of a bounce, a better exit may be achieved by waiting for higher levels but be willing to cut losses quickly on any further short-term weakness. Prior support at 15,600-15,681 now becomes resistance with the next level of support at 15,300.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Thursday 21st September

The DAX swung between gains and losses before finishing little changed on Wednesday at 15,705. On the daily timeframe, our analysis is unchanged, buyers have clearly begun to emerge at support between 15,681-15,600. For now, this affirms the importance of the region, and a swing low shortly forming would add weight to the case for higher levels, alternatively, a break downwards would be meaningful given several prior tests have held this region. With the slow stochastic having meaningfully unwound over the prior three weeks, set up the potential for a break finally above 15,900 which would put all-time highs in focus. Those who wish to trade long could set stop buys at 16,050 if more cautious, or 15,910 for more aggressive traders, with stops at 15,560. Given the proximity to all-time highs, there is not set profit target at this time.

On the 4-hour timeframe, a swing low formed around initial support at 15,681 with the price bouncing, forming a swing high coinciding with the 21-period moving average, a concerning development. The price is once again approaching 15,681 and we look for buyers to continue to emerge at this level to maintain our bullish outlook. A second swing low around this area would add to its importance and the case for higher levels in the coming hours and days, positioning for an attempt to break above 15,900.

Wednesday 20th September

The DAX was lower at 15,691.34 on Tuesday. On the daily timeframe, while the price continues to move lower, buyers have clearly begun to emerge at support between 15,681-15,600. For now, this affirms the importance of the region, and a swing low shortly forming would add weight to the case for higher levels, alternatively a break downwards would be meaningful given several prior tests have held this region. With the slow stochastic having meaningfully unwound over the prior three weeks, set up the potential for a break finally above 15,900 which would put all-time highs in focus. Those who wish to trade long could set stop buys at 16,050 if more cautious, or 15,910 for more aggressive traders, with stops at 15,560. Given the proximity to all-time highs, there is not set profit target at this time.

On the 4-hour timeframe, we are monitoring closely for the formation of a swing low, which is a growing probability with the price back at noted support and the slow stochastic showing signs of turning up at oversold levels. Such a low would likely present good opportunities to add long exposure on the potential for a breakout upwards.

Tuesday 19th September

The DAX retreated -0.93% on Monday to 15,726.84. On the daily timeframe, the price has pulled back to once again be modestly above support between 15,681-15,600. Should buyers once again emerge, it would add further weight to this regions importance as short-term support, and with the slow stochastic having meaningfully unwound over the prior three weeks, set up the potential for a break finally above 15,900 which would put all-time highs in focus. Those who wish to trade long could set stop buys at 16,050 if more cautious, or 15,910 for more aggressive traders, with stops at 15,560. Given the proximity to all-time highs, there is not set profit target at this time.

On the 4-hour timeframe, short-term momentum is lower although buyers have begun to step in as the price approached support at 15,681. We are close watching to see if a swing low forms, which given the unwinding of the slow stochastic would point to a bounce back towards 15,900 in the coming days. Such a low would likely present good opportunities to add long exposure on the potential for a breakout upwards. Below 15,681 there is also further strong support found at 15,600.

Monday 18th September

The DAX pared initial gains on Friday, finishing little changed at 15,872.98. On the daily timeframe, sellers have initially emerged at resistance around 15,900 however this is not yet concerning for our bullish outlook. The price has lifted strongly from support between 15,681-15,600 and with the slow stochastic only at neutral levels, the potential for a break above this level in the coming days. Those who wish to trade long could set stop buys at 16,050 if more cautious, or 15,910 for more aggressive traders, with stops at 15,560. Given the proximity to all-time highs, there is not set profit target at this time.

On the 4-hour timeframe, a swing high has formed at 16,000 and the price now pulling back. With the slow stochastic having turned lower but remaining overbought, a deeper pullback is likely in the coming hours towards the 21-period moving average, which is followed by key support. To add weight to our bullish outlook and a good indication of an uptrend forming, we next look for a higher low to form above 15,681. Such a low would present good opportunities to add long exposure on the potential for a breakout upwards.

Friday 15th September

The DAX climbed 1.42% on Thursday to 15,868.11. On the daily timeframe, a retest of support between 15,681-15,600 has held with the price moving sharply higher back towards the 15,900 level. As mentioned in our prior analysis, this adds weight to the importance of this support zone, and we continue to view higher levels in the coming days and weeks as more likely than not. Those who wish to trade long could set stop buys at 16,050 if more cautious, or 15,910 for more aggressive traders, with stops at 15,560. Given the proximity to all-time highs, there is not set profit target at this time.

On the 4-hour timeframe, given the price has become overbought and approaching initial resistance around 15,900 immediate upside may be limited. However, with noted support levels hold and short-term momentum once again higher, the potential for further upside is building. Adding further weight to this is the recent formation of bullish momentum divergence, which all-together suggests the good potential for a break above 15,900 and extension of gains. Alternatively, a move below 15,600 which is confirmed by the slow stochastic would be more pessimistic and see our outlook reassessed.