DAX
29 Aug 2025
DAX: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
Resistance |
24,500 then 25,000 |
Support |
23,500 then 22,425 |
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Resistance |
24,350 then 24,500 |
Support |
24,000 then 23,750 |
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
4-Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Friday 29th August
The daily chart shows the DAX trading at 24,101, with price consolidating just above the 50-day SMA (24,101) while the 14-day SMA has flattened and converged with it. The 200-day SMA, currently at 22,425, continues to provide strong underlying support, but the recent loss of momentum is evident. Notably, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has fallen sharply to -37.34%, marking a significant divergence from price, which was holding near all-time highs — a classic bearish divergence that suggests the risk of a broader pullback. Structural support levels lie at 23,500, then 22,425 (the 200-day SMA), with deeper levels at 21,800 and 20,000. Resistance is capped near 24,500, with a potential upside extension only if momentum recovers. Given the loss of upward momentum, traders should consider tightening stops below 23,400 to protect gains, while medium-term traders may position for a correction into the 22,400–22,000 region if the bearish divergence plays out.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the DAX is trading around 24,171, but the structure reflects weakening momentum after repeated failures to clear 24,400. The 14-period SMA has slipped below the 50-period SMA, a negative cross that confirms the loss of short-term trend strength, while price is clinging to the 200-period SMA, which now acts as the last line of support for the current consolidation. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is at -28.17%, pointing down firmly and aligning with the downward-sloping momentum trendline — a strong bearish divergence versus the price action that had been holding flat. This reinforces the risk of further downside pressure. Immediate support lies at 24,000, followed by 23,750, where prior swing lows align with moving average support. A clean break below these levels could expose the deeper target at 23,400, near the June consolidation floor. Resistance is first at 24,350, then 24,500, where multiple failed rallies stalled in recent weeks. The short-term outlook remains bearish unless price can reclaim and hold above 24,350. For trading, stops on shorts should be kept above 24,450, while tactical downside targets sit between 23,750–23,400.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish
4 Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Thursday 28th August
The daily chart shows that the broader uptrend remains intact but momentum has begun to deteriorate. Price continues to hold above the 200-day SMA (green, 22,400), maintaining long-term structural support, while the 50-day SMA (pink, 24,085) and the 14-day SMA (blue, just below current price) are flattening, signaling a loss of upward momentum. Notably, a bearish divergence has formed between price action and the Stochastic Momentum Index (currently -26.25%), where higher price highs were not confirmed by higher oscillator peaks. This divergence suggests underlying weakness and raises the probability of a corrective move. Fibonacci retracement levels provide key downside markers, with immediate support at 23,500 and deeper levels at 22,400 (200-day SMA) and 21,000, which align with prior consolidation zones. Resistance remains at the recent swing high of 24,500, with a stronger cap near 25,000 if bullish sentiment resumes. The longer-term outlook is shifting from bullish to neutral-to-bearish, and traders should consider protective stops just below 22,400, targeting downside levels of 23,000 and 22,400 if selling intensifies.
The 4-hour chart highlights a breakdown from a rising structure, with price recently slipping below both the 14-period SMA (blue) and 50-period SMA (pink), while the 200-period SMA (green, 24,174) has flattened and is now being tested as resistance. The failure to sustain above the 200-SMA and subsequent lower highs confirm weakening short-term momentum. The Stochastic Momentum Index (-34.82%) is trending lower and remains in bearish alignment with price, reinforcing downside pressure and negating the chance of immediate bullish divergence. Near-term resistance is seen at 24,300 (previous support turned resistance) followed by 24,500, while immediate support lies at 23,800 and then 23,400. The short-term outlook is bearish, with traders advised to look for tactical shorts on rallies toward 24,300, setting stops above 24,500 to limit risk, while targeting 23,800 and 23,400 on the downside as corrective levels.
Wednesday 27th August
The daily chart of the DAX shows price consolidating near 24,070 after a strong multi-month rally, but momentum has weakened significantly. Price remains above the 200-day SMA (22,378, green), keeping the long-term trend intact, but the 14-day SMA (blue) and 50-day SMA (24,069, pink) are flattening and converging, signalling a potential loss of upside strength. A notable bearish divergence is visible, as the Stochastic Momentum Index has trended lower from overbought levels while price made new highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum and increased risk of a corrective phase. Immediate support lies at 23,500, followed by a deeper level at 22,800. On the upside, resistance sits at 24,200 and then 24,500, but given the divergence, rallies into these zones may be met with selling pressure. The longer-term bias is shifting from bullish toward neutral-to-bearish, and traders should consider protecting long positions with a stop loss below 22,700, as a decisive break beneath this level could trigger a trend reversal.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the DAX is showing clearer signs of weakness, with price currently at 24,175 and struggling to hold above the 50-period SMA (pink). The 14-period SMA (blue) has recently crossed back below the 50 SMA, and both are hovering just above the 200 SMA (24,175, green), creating a clustering zone that highlights a potential breakdown. Momentum is clearly deteriorating, as the Stochastic Momentum Index sits at 13.79%, barely recovering from oversold territory, while price has held elevated, confirming bearish divergence. This suggests that even though the index has not yet broken down, buyers are losing control. Immediate resistance is at 24,300, followed by 24,500, but short-term downside targets at 23,950 and 23,700 are in play if selling pressure intensifies. The short-term outlook is bearish, with a recommended stop loss above 24,350, as a recovery above this zone would negate the near-term downside bias.
Tuesday 26th August
On the daily timeframe, the DAX has been consolidating near its highs but is beginning to show technical cracks. Price currently trades at 24,177, holding just above the 50-day SMA (pink, 24,051) and well above the 200-day SMA (green, 22,354), keeping the longer-term uptrend intact. However, the Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled over into positive territory (0.57%) after forming a clear bearish divergence against price — while price carved out higher highs into July, momentum was declining, suggesting waning strength behind the rally. This divergence raises the risk of a medium-term correction, especially as price action flattens near resistance. Immediate resistance is seen at 24,500, followed by 25,000 if buyers regain control, but the loss of upward momentum makes these levels harder to clear. On the downside, key support lies at 23,700 (recent swing base), followed by 22,354 (200-SMA), which would represent a major structural retest. The outlook is neutral to bearish: the trend remains formally intact above the 200-SMA, but fading momentum suggests upside risk is capped. For trading, a defensive stance is warranted — aggressive shorts may target 23,700 with stops above 24,500, while longs should only be considered on a sustained breakout above 24,500.
The 4-hour chart highlights consolidation with signs of distribution. Price is moving sideways around 24,177, with the 14-period SMA (blue), 50-period SMA (pink), and 200-period SMA (green) converging — a sign of indecision. Despite price stabilising above the 200-SMA, the Stochastic Momentum Index sits deep in negative territory (-26.13%) and has been trending lower even as price attempted higher highs earlier, confirming sustained bearish divergence. This suggests that sellers are quietly regaining control. Immediate resistance is at 24,300, then 24,500, where repeated failures have capped rallies. On the downside, support comes in at 23,900, with further weakness potentially opening a move toward 23,600. The short-term outlook is neutral to bearish, with consolidation more likely to resolve lower unless momentum shifts decisively. Tactical shorts can be considered on failed tests of 24,300–24,500, with downside targets at 23,900 and 23,600, while stops should be placed above 24,600 to avoid a squeeze on breakout.
Monday 25th August
The daily structure shows that while the index remains above its 200-day SMA at 22,330, price action has lost upside momentum after a strong run, flattening near the 24,000 region. The 14-day (blue) and 50-day (pink) SMAs are converging and acting as near-term balance points, but the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is showing a pronounced bearish divergence—price has made higher highs into July, but the oscillator has traced a series of lower highs, now sitting at 16.85%. This divergence warns of waning buying pressure and the risk of corrective downside despite the uptrend backdrop. Should price lose 23,600, selling could accelerate toward 22,330 (200-day SMA) with a potential extension to the broader support cluster around 19,676–18,018 if momentum breaks decisively. Conversely, a sustained daily close above 24,035 would negate near-term divergence risks and open 24,400 as the next upside target. Traders leaning bullish should only commit above 24,035 with stops below 23,600; for defensive positioning, short entries may be considered on failures near 24,000 with stops above 24,400, aiming for 23,600 and 22,330.
On the shorter horizon, price has stabilized into a sideways consolidation since early July, oscillating tightly around the 14-, 50-, and 200-period SMAs, all of which have flattened—indicating indecision and the lack of a dominant trend driver in the near term. The 23,900 area is acting as a pivotal intraday support, while the 200-period SMA at 24,185 area represents the immediate ceiling. The SMI is also displaying sustained bearish divergence from May into August, with momentum trending lower while price has held elevated levels, currently at 29.48%. This undermines the probability of a clean breakout and suggests choppy conditions with a risk of downside resolution. If the index breaks and closes above 24,185, a retest of 24,400 could unfold, but if 23,900 fails, the range would likely resolve lower toward 23,600. For tactical traders, a tight stop short bias may be favoured under 24,185, while confirmation for renewed upside only arrives on strength above 24,400.
Friday 22nd August
The daily chart reveals a bullish outlook for the market as the price remains above key moving averages, including the 200-day SMA (green line), which is providing solid support at 22,304.087. The 50-day SMA (pink) and 14-day SMA (blue) are both aligned in an upward direction, suggesting a continuation of the positive trend. Resistance is located at 24,018.232, with another level of interest at 22,304.087. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at 18.68% indicates some short-term bearish momentum, but this does not significantly alter the overall bullish trend. Given that the price is consolidating above the moving averages, the market is likely to continue upwards, with an upside target at 24,018.232. However, traders should be aware of a potential pullback towards 19,676.120 or 18,018.002 if the market faces a short-term correction. A stop loss near the 18,018 support would be prudent to protect against downside risk.
The 4-hour chart displays a neutral outlook, as the price has been consolidating after a strong rally, with the 200-period SMA (green line) at 24,188.859. Resistance is found at 24,188.859, and if the price can maintain momentum, it could reach 24,600.000. However, the Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) at 20.63% shows a bearish divergence, indicating that momentum is weakening even as the price rises, which could lead to a pullback. The market appears to be in a phase of consolidation, with the moving averages converging, signaling indecision in the short term. If the price fails to break above 24,188.859, there could be a pullback towards support at 23,700.000 or 23,100.000, with a stop loss placed just below the 23,100 support to mitigate risk.
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