DAX

14 Jun 2024
DAX: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

Resistance N/A
Support 17,800 then 17,000

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Resistance N/A
Support 18,040 then 17,800

Friday 14th June

The DAX declined -1.999% on Thursday to 18,285.54. On the daily timeframe, declines on Thursday signal the pullback remains underway, while disappointing following a gains on Wednesday, continue to maintain our bullish view. Weakness over the prior month continues to appear corrective, suggesting a resumption of the prior uptrend once complete, and there is good support around 18,040 which may limit downside, especially with the slow stochastic becoming oversold.

On the 4-hour timeframe, while the price has moved below the prior swing low, there is the good potential for further strong bullish momentum divergence to form. This would add to the case the larger correction is nearing completion, and we remain comfortable with our outright bullish view.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Thursday 13th June

The DAX climbed 1.448% on Wednesday to 18,656.36. On the daily timeframe, the price has risen sharply and is now moving above the 21-period moving average. This is a good indication that the current pullback is ending, especially with the slow stochastic turning higher at oversold levels. Weakness over the past few weeks appears corrective, which in the context of a prior impulsive move suggests an eventual move to a new all-time high.

On the 4-hour timeframe, while the price is overbought, it may remain so for an extended period of time given the large correction. Impulsive gains to move above the 21-period moving average and prior swing high signal the larger correction is likely complete and the good probability of higher levels in the coming hours and days.

Wednesday 12th June

The DAX weakened -0.7% on Tuesday to 18,384.76. On the daily timeframe, the price has moved below prior lows, signalling a correction continues to remain underway despite buyers recently emerging. Weakness over the past few weeks appears corrective, which in the context of a prior impulsive move suggests an eventual move to a new all-time high. Despite the price being below the 21-period moving average, we maintain our outright bullish view.

On the 4-hour timeframe, bullish momentum divergence is forming, a strong indication that the larger pullback is nearing completion. To add weight to that view, we would want to see an impulsive rally to recapture the 21-period moving average and move above the prior swing high at 18,551. We remain comfortable with our bullish outlook.

Tuesday 11th June

The DAX finished modestly lower on Monday, reversing early losses to finish at 18,514. On the daily timeframe, we have seen buyers emerge on weakness over the prior two sessions, a good sign that recent correction is nearing completion. Weakness over the past few weeks appears corrective, which in the context of a prior impulsive move suggests an eventual move to a new all-time high. Despite the price being below the 21-period moving average, we maintain our outright bullish view.

On the 4-hour timeframe, initial support around 18,400 has once again held as a swing low forms, adding weight to this regions importance. A break lower would be meaningful and a more bearish sign, however, the formation of a third swing low suggests higher levels as more likely than not, especially with the slow stochastic turning up at oversold levels. Next, to support our bullish view we look for an impulsive rally to recapture the 21-period moving average.

Monday 8th June

The DAX declined -0.45% on Friday to 18,547.50. On the daily timeframe, dip buyers have emerged around recent lows, which coupled with the slow stochastic beginning to turn higher near oversold levels, leaves open the possibility the larger pullback is nearing completion. Weakness over the past few weeks appears corrective, which in the context of a prior impulsive move suggests an eventual move to a new all-time high. Despite the price being below the 21-period moving average, we maintain our outright bullish view.

On the 4-hour timeframe, while the price has failed to move meaningfully higher, we continue to view the recent bullish momentum divergence and continued buyers around recent lows as suggesting on the balance of probability the larger correction is complete. We have technically seen a higher low form, although to continue maintaining our bullish view the price needs to remain above 18,400. A sharp rally to move above the prior swing high at 18,726 would only add to our bullish view.

Friday 7th June

The DAX pared earlier gains, finishing little changed at 18,631 on Thursday and therefore our analysis is unchanged. On the daily timeframe, another swing low has formed in close proximity to the prior swing low, an early indication that the recent pullback is nearing completion. Weakness over the past few weeks appears corrective, which in the context of a prior impulsive move suggests an eventual move to a new all-time high. Despite the price being below the 21-period moving average, we maintain our outright bullish view.

On the 4-hour timeframe, while a pullback is underway, the recent move above the prior swing high likely confirms the larger correction is complete. We look for this pullback to shortly form a higher low to add to this view. Given the size of the recent correction, this good lead to a strong trending rally and the price remain overbought for an extended period.

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