DAX
13 Jun 2025
DAX: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
Resistance | 24,033 then 24,300 |
Support |
22,887 then 21,085 |
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Resistance | 23,724 then 24,033 |
Support |
23,304 then 22,887 |
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Friday 13th June
The DAX has broken below short-term support after forming a bearish divergence between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index, confirming waning bullish momentum. Price had been trending along an ascending wedge, making marginal new highs, but the Stochastic Momentum Index, now at -40.30%, consistently made lower highs over the past several months — a classic signal of bearish divergence. The index is now pulling back from the upper boundary of the wedge and is trading below the 14-day SMA (24,033) and testing the 50-day SMA (22,887). If this area fails to hold, the next significant support is the 200-day SMA at 21,065, which aligns with horizontal structure support near 21,000–20,676. Despite the longer-term trend still being upward, the weakening momentum and break from rising wedge structure shift the bias to neutral with a downside tilt unless the index quickly reclaims 24,033. A confirmed move below 22,887 would open further downside toward 21,065, while a stop loss for long positions should be placed below 21,000.
The 4-hour chart reinforces the bearish short-term shift, as the DAX has decisively broken below the 50-period SMA (24,093) and is now testing the 200-period SMA (23,724). The previous resistance-turned-support near 23,724 failed to hold, confirming the loss of upward momentum. The Stochastic Momentum Index, currently at -45.53%, has turned sharply lower and confirms bearish divergence — price made a series of marginal highs in early June while the SMI trended downward. This divergence, now resolved to the downside, signals that sellers are in control. If the price breaks below the 23,300–23,200 zone, the next key target lies around 24,093 (the 50-day SMA on the daily chart). Short-term resistance is now at 24,093, then 24,033, and any failed retest of these levels would reinforce the bearish view. A stop loss for short positions could be placed above 24,050 to guard against a reversal.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
4 Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Thursday 12th June
The DAX remains in a longer-term uptrend, but recent price action has stalled beneath the resistance trendline extending from the March high, currently near 24,088. Price is consolidating in a narrowing wedge just above the 14-day SMA and the 50-day SMA, while the 200-day SMA at 21,042 continues to rise beneath. Despite price maintaining higher levels, a clear bearish divergence is visible on the Stochastic Momentum Index — with price forming higher highs, while the SMI has printed lower highs and is now turning sharply lower at -20.51%. This divergence warns of potential exhaustion in bullish momentum. Immediate support lies at 23,683, followed by 22,872 (50-day SMA), and a break below these could trigger a deeper pullback toward 21,042. A decisive break above 24,088 would invalidate the bearish divergence and suggest continuation. Long trades should consider stop-losses just below 22,850 to manage breakdown risk.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the DAX has broken slightly below the uptrend line that’s guided price since early May, and is now testing horizontal support near 23,683. Price remains technically above the 200-period SMA, but momentum is weakening sharply. A clear bearish divergence between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index is now confirmed, with the SMI breaking down to -58.00% despite price only slightly pulling back from its highs. This suggests internal weakness that may precede a more decisive decline. Should price remain under 24,128, a break below 23,683 may accelerate selling toward 23,000. Near-term resistance lies at 24,128, and only a breakout above that level would shift the momentum outlook. Traders shorting this setup could place stop-loss orders above 24,150 to avoid whipsaws.
Wednesday 11th June
The DAX has been trading in a steady uptrend since November, but recent price action suggests a potential loss of momentum. The price is currently hovering near the recent highs at 24,081.90, but has begun to roll over slightly with lower daily closes. The 14-day simple moving average (SMA) remains above the 50-day (US$22,844.21), which in turn remains above the 200-day SMA (US$21,017.54), preserving a bullish structure. However, the Stochastic Momentum Index has turned sharply lower from overbought territory, now down to just 5.51%, indicating weakening upward momentum and raising caution for a possible pullback. No clear bullish divergence is observed, which suggests the index could correct lower before attempting a new leg higher. Key support lies at 23,000, a psychological and structural level, followed by 22,844 at the 50-day SMA. A decisive break below that level could open the way toward 21,000 near the 200-day SMA. Resistance remains at the recent high of 24,081.90, followed by a potential breakout target around 24,500. Long positions should consider stops beneath 22,800 to manage downside risk in case of trend reversal.
On the 4-hour chart, the DAX appears to have entered a short-term topping pattern. Price is now slightly below the 14-period and 50-period SMAs, while the 200-period SMA at 23,633.13 is beginning to act as dynamic support. The failure to break convincingly above 24,081 and the formation of a rounded top indicate potential distribution at the highs. Momentum confirms this shift, as the Stochastic Momentum Index is firmly in bearish territory at -53.84%, having fallen aggressively without bullish divergence. If the price breaks below 23,633, the next levels of support lie at 23,000 and 22,844, the latter aligning with the 50-day SMA on the daily chart. On the upside, the index must clear 24,000 to regain bullish footing, with a second resistance near 24,081. Any rally failing at these levels could reinforce the bearish short-term setup. A stop-loss for short positions may be placed just above 24,150, guarding against a false breakdown and renewed upward momentum.
Tuesday 10th June
The daily chart retains a bullish longer-term bias, with price action steadily advancing along the upper Bollinger and trending above all major moving averages. The 50-day (pink) and 200-day (green) moving averages are in a bullish configuration, both sloping upward and reinforcing the trend’s strength. Recent candles show reduced volatility with tight-bodied closes, suggesting consolidation near the highs around 24,097.78. While price action continues to print higher highs, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is diverging to the downside, currently falling to 28.90%, indicating weakening momentum. This negative divergence could signal the possibility of a short-term correction or pause before any further rally. Key resistance remains at 24,097.78, with a break above that level targeting the psychological 25,000 area. On the downside, initial support lies at 22,816.75, followed by stronger structural support at the 200-day moving average around 20,991.49. Traders positioned long should consider placing a stop-loss just below 22,816 to safeguard gains in case of a breakdown from the current consolidation range.
The 4-hour chart shifts to a bearish short-term outlook, as price movement has flattened and is showing early signs of a pullback after an extended rally. The price has begun to trade below the 50-period moving average (pink), and the Stochastic Momentum Index has crossed decisively below the zero line, currently sitting at -40.69%, highlighting a notable decline in short-term momentum. This bearish crossover, combined with prolonged price stagnation near recent highs, increases the risk of a short-term correction. There is also minor bearish divergence building, as recent highs in price were not matched by new highs in momentum, which weakens the bullish case. The first line of support lies at 23,571.59 (just above the 200-period moving average), and if this level breaks, the next target would be the longer-term support around 22,816.75. Resistance now sits at 24,138.74, just above recent intraday highs. A break back above this level would be needed to shift momentum back in the bulls’ favour. For bearish positions, a stop-loss should be considered above 24,200 to manage risk if buyers reassert control.
Friday 6th June
The daily chart indicates a neutral outlook. The price has been in an uptrend, holding above the key moving averages, with the 14-day (blue), 50-day (pink), and 200-day (green) SMAs acting as support levels. The price is currently consolidating above the 50-day moving average, which is located around 22,757.683, but has failed to break through the key resistance levels near 24,070.645. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is hovering around 36.30%, indicating a moderate bearish momentum, which suggests that the recent upward momentum may be losing strength. The current trend is likely to encounter resistance near the 24,070.645 level, and a failure to break above this could result in a pullback towards the support around 20,934.481. A stop loss can be placed just below 19,676.120 to limit downside risk in case of a reversal.
The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook. The price is currently trading below the 50-period moving average (pink) at 24,124.587, indicating a recent shift in momentum towards the downside. The Stochastic Momentum Indicator (SMI) is at -14.58%, suggesting bearish momentum, which points to the potential for further downward movement in the short term. With the SMI in bearish territory, the price may struggle to breach the 24,124.587 resistance level. A pullback is possible with a potential downside target at 19,676.120. Traders should consider a stop loss just above 24,124.587 to limit risk in the event of a failure to maintain the bearish trend.
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