On the daily timeframe the market is trading near the highs (24,100–24,200) but the internals are warning: price made higher highs into mid-year while the Stochastic Momentum Index has made lower highs (see orange divergence line), a classic positive divergence that shows rallies are losing internal momentum and increases the probability of at least a corrective leg. The 200-day SMA (green) sits around 23,380 and remains the primary long-term trend filter — as long as price stays above it the longer-term up structure remains intact, but a clean breakdown below that level would flip the structural bias toward bearish and invite a larger retracement into the blue horizontal support area near 19,676. The 14/50 SMA cluster (shorter moving averages) is currently hugging price and acts as an immediate decision zone: holds and a renewed push above 24,800 would target the 25,500 area; failure to hold that cluster with a close below the 200-day SMA would favour lower targets. Trading plan: for buyers prefer either a confirmed hold and daily reversal off the 200-day SMA or a breakout above 24,800 with SMI turning up; place protective stops below the 200-day SMA for medium-term longs (for example 23,200) or use a tighter stop under the 14/50 band (23,900) for shorter timeframes. For bears, wait for a confirmed daily close back below 23,380 or a failed re-test of 24,800 with momentum still negative before increasing size.

The 4-hour picture is more vulnerable: price has flattened after the mid-year push and the short SMAs are trading close together under the 200-period SMA at times, while the Stochastic MI is trending downward and remains below recent peaks (confirming the daily divergence at a lower resolution). That alignment — corrective price action at/near highs plus falling SMI — signals the current moves are corrective and that the path of least resistance is sideways to lower while momentum fails to expand. Tactical levels: an immediate intraday support band sits near 24,000 (where intraday structure and short SMAs converge); a break below that opens a move toward the daily 200-day 23,380 and then the larger horizontal zone. On the upside, a reclaim and clean 4-hour close above 24,600–24,800 would be needed to relieve short-term bearish risk and allow a retest of recent highs. Trading rules: favour short bias while price remains below the 24,600 area and SMI is positive — consider short entries on weakness or failed retests of the short SMA band with stops above 24,800; for quick longs require a confirmed hold and intraday rebound off 24,000 with SMI turning higher and a stop just below 24,000.

                                        Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral

On the daily chart price is sitting near the cycle highs and remains marginally above the 200-day SMA (green line) which keeps the medium-term trend technically constructive, but the Stochastic Momentum Index has been tracing lower highs while price made flat-to-higher highs (marked divergence), a classic warning that upside energy is fading. The 14/50 SMAs are tightly bunched under price (short SMA support) rather than showing a clean bullish separation, so the market is in a late-stage upmove / chop zone — a decisive daily close back above 24,500 would resume a bullish leg toward big round targets near 25,000, whereas failure to hold the short SMA band and a daily close below 23,365 (the 200-day cluster) would signal loss of trend and open the larger structural supports shown around 19,676. Trading plan: favour patient longs only on either (a) a clear breakout above 24,500 with SMI confirming by turning higher, or (b) a measured pullback to the 23,000 area that shows a clean SMI recovery; use a protective stop under 23,000 for trend trades and keep position size light while divergence persists.

The 4-hour picture shows short SMAs flattening and rolling toward the 200-period SMA with price failing to sustain higher levels after the July highs — intraday rallies are being capped in the 24,300–24,500 zone. The Stochastic MI on the 4-hour has been drifting lower (clear negative divergence versus earlier price strength) and is producing lower peaks, which favours further corrective pressure rather than a clean continuation. Tactical approach: look to fade strength into the 24,300–24,500 area with stops a few ticks above 24,800 for short entries, targeting an initial move into 23,600 and, if that breaks, the more important daily support at 23,000; conversely contrarian buyers should wait for the SMI to bottom and short SMAs to turn back up before scaling, with tight stops below 23,600 (or below 23,000 for more conservative entries).

On the daily timeframe price is sitting close to the 24,000–24,200 area after a long up leg and remains only a little above the green 200-day SMA (23,353), so the structural trend is not yet broken but the internals are warning of strain. The Stochastic Momentum Index has been making lower highs while price posted marginally higher highs (orange divergence on the chart) — a classic negative momentum divergence that often precedes corrective phases. The 50-day and 14-day SMAs are tightly bunched and have flattened, which signals waning upside momentum; if those faster SMAs roll over and price closes decisively below the 200-day SMA, the risk profile moves from corrective to trend change. Trading plan: treat rallies into 24,200 as higher-probability resistance — aggressive sellers can scale in there with targets down to the 200-day SMA (23,353) and then the 19,676 structural band; longer-term buyers should keep stops just below 23,353 (invalidates the short-term structure) and only add on a clean daily close above 24,800 with SMI confirming higher highs. Explanation: the 200-day SMA is the structural dividing line between corrective pullback and bear conversion; the SMI divergence reduces the probability of a clean immediate breakout and argues for risk-aware entries.

The 4-hour shows the same story compressed: price has found resistance around the 24,200 zone and the short-term SMAs have flattened or turned down while the 4-hour SMI has been rolling lower (confirming the daily divergence), which increases the chance of a multi-session pullback or sideways chop. Intraday momentum is not yet capitulative — there are still small bounce attempts off the short SMA cluster — but unless the 4-hour SMI turns up in step with price and price reclaims and holds above 24,200, upside follow-through is unlikely. Trading plan: swing traders can look for short, tactical fades on weakness under 24,200 with a tight initial target at 23,800 and a protective stop above 24,400–24,500 (limits risk if the market breaks higher); short-term longs should require either a reclaim and hold above 24,200 (stop under 23,800) or keep defensive stops below 23,353 if treating the move as a trend-following entry. Technical implication: the short-term sell signal is driven by momentum divergence — manage size and stops accordingly because the daily 200-day remains the key structural reference that will decide whether any pullback is temporary or the start of a deeper correction.

Price sits near the highs after a persistent advance, with the 14- and 50-day SMAs tracking just below price around 23,6k and the rising 200-day SMA near 23,339, confirming the longer-term bullish structure. However, since June the Stochastic Momentum Index has been making lower highs while price carved marginal higher highs (clear negative divergence), and the SMI has rolled back below its midline again, signalling waning thrust. In practice, that often precedes a fade back into the short-term moving-average cluster. Trading approach: buy-the-dip participants can look for reversals in the 23,600 area (14/50-day confluence) with a protective stop under the 200-day at 23,339; momentum traders can instead wait for a sustained close above 24,300 to target 24,800, keeping risk tight below the breakout level given the active divergence.

On the 4-hour view, price has stalled beneath the prior high and is slipping toward the short-term MA band, with the 14/50-period SMAs starting to curl lower while the 200-period sits below as the next structural line of defence. The SMI shows persistent lower highs from June while price made a flat-to-higher top — a negative divergence that has now transitioned into a momentum downswing (SMI back in negative territory), increasing the probability of a pullback toward 23,800 first and potentially 24,095 (proximate 200-period area) if that level gives way. Tactics: favour selling rallies into 24,150–24,300 with stops above 24,350, or if long from lower levels, trail a stop under 23,800 to protect against a deeper mean-reversion leg toward the 23,400 zone.

On the daily the market is sitting near the upper range (24,070) and remains above the long-run 200-day SMA (green), which preserves the longer-term uptrend — however the shorter SMAs (14 in blue and 50 in pink) have flattened and the price made a subtle higher high into June–July while the Stochastic Momentum Index has trended lower (orange divergence line), a classic negative divergence that warns the rally’s internal momentum is weakening. That divergence means rallies from here are less reliable: the 200-day SMA around the low-23,000s is the first meaningful support and would be the level that keeps the trend intact; a break beneath that with follow-through would expose the larger horizontal support band around 19,676. Practically, treat strength above 24,400 as capped until momentum confirms (SMI reclaim of its recent peaks and a re-steepening of the 14/50 slope) — tactical longs should be sized small with a stop beneath the 23,300 area; tactical shorts or fade strategies on rallies into the 24,400–25,000 band with stops just above 25,000 favour the current loss of momentum and protect capital if the market re-accelerates higher.

The 4-hour frame makes the momentum deterioration clearer: price has failed to push materially above the early-summer highs and the 14/50 SMAs have crossed or are about to cross lower, signalling short-term selling pressure; the 4-hour SMI sits noticeably lower than at the prior price peak (the downward orange trend on the SMI), giving a high-probability bearish divergence that increases the odds of additional sideways to lower price action. Immediate intraday support sits in the 23,700 area where recent intraday structure has found buyers; losing that exposes the 23,300 confluence of the 4-hour and daily 200 SMAs. Trading plan: for short-term traders, favoured execution is to sell rallies into the 24,300–24,700 zone with a tight stop above the recent swing high (just above 24,700) and targets toward 23,700 then 23,300; avoid initiating medium-term longs until the 4-hour SMI turns decisively higher and the 14/50 SMA cross re-turns bullish — if taking a contrarian long, place a protective stop beneath 23,300 to respect the structural risk.