The DAX daily chart shows a market in a clean uptrend, having recovered from a sharp March correction that took it down to roughly 22,300 and then rallied persistently to new highs at 26,110. Both moving averages remain in properly bullish sequence and are rising — the 14-day MA (25,313) sits above the 50-day (25,064), which in turn sits well above the up-sloping 200-day MA (24,426) — a textbook alignment where each average now functions as layered support beneath the current advance. The Stochastic Momentum Index is running hot at 82.7, deep in overbought territory, and price is pushing to fresh highs alongside it rather than diverging away from it, meaning momentum is confirming the move rather than warning of exhaustion — though a reading this extended does raise the odds of a near-term pause or shallow pullback simply from stretched conditions rather than any structural weakness. Given the trend and confirmed momentum, the near-term bias favors continuation with an upside objective in the 26,700 area if the breakout holds, while a pullback toward the 14-day MA near 25,313 (or the 50-day at 25,064 on a deeper retracement) would likely be viewed as a buying opportunity within the broader uptrend rather than a reversal signal. This is a read of the chart as shown, not a recommendation — I’m not a financial advisor, and any stop-loss should be sized to your own risk tolerance.

The 4-hour chart mirrors the daily picture with an even more compressed, accelerating advance — price has broken sharply higher over the past several sessions, pulling away from all three moving averages, which are stacked bullishly with the 14-period (25,849) above the 50-period (25,430) above the 200-period (25,145). The Stochastic Momentum Index is pinned near its ceiling at 91.0, about as extended as the indicator gets, and while that doesn’t invalidate the trend, it does mean the easy, low-risk entry point has likely already passed for this particular leg — chasing strength this far into an overbought reading raises the risk of buying right before a short-term consolidation. There’s no bearish divergence yet since price continues making higher highs in step with the indicator, but traders should watch for the SMI to roll over while price stalls as an early warning sign; a pullback toward the 14-period MA at 25,849 would be a natural area to reassess for continuation, with the 50-period MA at 25,430 as a deeper support if momentum cools more sharply. As always, treat this as a description of current conditions rather than a specific trade signal, and confirm levels against live pricing before acting.

Monday 3rd August

The 4-hour chart shows the same bullish structure playing out on a faster clock, with price having broken sharply higher out of a multi-week consolidation range between roughly 24,900 and 25,300, and now trading right at the highs of that breakout at 25,826.70. All three moving averages are stacked bullishly and rising — the 14-period at 25,620.26, the 50-period at 25,320.83, and the 200-period at 25,109.73 — meaning short-term pullbacks are likely to find buyers at each successive layer, with the 14-period MA the first support to watch on any near-term dip. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at 48.06/47.19, a moderate reading rather than an extreme one, which is notable given how sharply price has just broken higher — this suggests the recent rally hasn’t yet become momentum-exhausted the way a reading pinned at the top of the range would indicate, leaving room for the advance to continue before any meaningful divergence risk develops. Immediate resistance is at 25,861 (today’s high), with a breakout target near 26,200 if buyers push through; support sits at 25,620, with the 50-period MA at 25,321 as a deeper support test if the pullback extends. Given the strongly bullish MA alignment on this timeframe, a stop loss for long positioning is best placed below 25,321, since a break of the 50-period MA would signal the short-term breakout momentum has faded.