Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish

Thursday 22nd January

The daily chart remains structurally bullish because price is still holding in an established uptrend and is trading above the rising longer-term averages, with the 200-day SMA (green) near 23,876.118 acting as the key “trend floor” that defines the broader regime. However, momentum is no longer confirming the push to new highs: the SMI is in negative territory at -20.90%, and the annotated orange slope highlights a bearish momentum divergence (price pressing higher while the stochastic momentum fades), which often signals trend exhaustion and increases the probability of a corrective pullback or consolidation even if the primary trend remains intact. From a levels perspective, the market is now vulnerable to mean reversion toward dynamic support first (the rising averages) before any deeper retracement: the first major bull/bear inflection zone sits at 24,524, then the daily trend anchor at 23,876; a sustained break below 23,876 would be a meaningful warning that the uptrend is deteriorating and could open a larger reset toward the prior structure shelf at 19,676, with further downside risk toward 18,018 if risk-off selling accelerates. On the upside, bulls need renewed acceptance back above the upper supply/ATH region around 25,431–26,000 to invalidate the bearish divergence signal and reassert trend continuation toward the next psychological extension around 26,500. Trading plan: trend-following longs are still justified, but they’re higher quality on dips into 24,524–23,876 with a stop below 23,876 (more conservative traders can place the stop below the next swing base), while breakout longs should only be taken if momentum (SMI) turns up and price holds above 26,000.

On the 4-hour timeframe, DAX is digesting gains after the latest push higher, with price now pressing back toward the moving-average “decision zone”: the 50-period SMA (pink) near 25,131.068 is overhead and behaving like near-term resistance, while the 200-period SMA (green) near 24,524.205 is the first meaningful support that needs to hold to keep the pullback corrective rather than trend-reversing. Momentum is modest at SMI 23.79%, which suggests some recovery from weaker conditions but not enough to confirm immediate continuation; combined with the annotated downward slope in the oscillator, this supports the idea of cooling momentum where rallies can stall into resistance until the indicator re-energises. If price continues to reject the 25,131–26,000 zone, the path of least resistance is a drift lower into 24,524, and a clean break below 24,524 would increase the odds of a deeper mean-reversion move toward the daily trend base near 23,876; only if that fails does the larger support stack come into play (notably 19,676 and 18,970). Conversely, reclaiming and holding above 25,431 would shift the short-term bias back toward bullish continuation, with 26,000 the key trigger level for a renewed trend leg. Trading plan: tactical shorts can be considered on failures into 25,150–25,131 with a stop above 26,000, while dip-buyers should prioritise entries closer to 24,524 with a stop below 23,876, as that’s where the higher-timeframe trend integrity is most clearly defined.

                                            Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish

Wednesday 21st January

The daily chart confirms a well-established bullish trend, with price continuing to register higher highs and higher lows and trading firmly above all key moving averages. The 14-day SMA (blue) is closely tracking price and acting as immediate dynamic support, while the 50-day SMA (pink) is rising steadily beneath it, reinforcing medium-term trend strength. The 200-day SMA (green) remains well below current price, confirming that the broader structural trend is decisively positive and that pullbacks are corrective in nature. From a trend perspective, the market is advancing within a rising channel, with recent consolidation occurring just below the upper boundary. Momentum, as measured by the Stochastic Momentum Indicator, has rolled over from elevated levels and is printing lower highs while price remains near the highs, highlighting a clear bearish momentum divergence. This divergence signals waning upside momentum and increases the risk of a near-term consolidation or shallow pullback rather than an immediate trend reversal. As long as price holds above the 21,000 region and, more importantly, above the 19,676 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact, with a continuation towards 24,000 and potentially 25,000 favoured on renewed momentum. Trend-following traders should remain constructive while respecting the momentum divergence, with a protective stop placed below 19,676 to guard against a deeper corrective phase.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price action reflects consolidation within a broader uptrend, following a strong impulsive rally earlier in the move. Price is holding above the rising 200-period SMA, which continues to define the dominant short-term trend as bullish, while the 14-period and 50-period SMAs remain positively aligned and provide layered dynamic support on minor pullbacks. However, momentum conditions are more cautious: the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is trending lower and remains in negative territory, despite price holding near recent highs, confirming a short-term bearish divergence between price and momentum. This divergence suggests upside acceleration is fading and increases the likelihood of range-bound trade or a corrective pullback before the next directional move. Immediate resistance is located around 24,500, with a sustained break required to open the path towards the 25,000 region. On the downside, initial support sits near 23,500, with stronger demand expected closer to 22,800 where prior consolidation and moving average support converge. Short-term traders should avoid chasing strength at current levels and instead look for either a clean breakout above 24,500 or a controlled pullback towards support, with stops placed below 22,800 to maintain alignment with the broader bullish trend while managing downside risk.

Tuesday 20th January

On the daily chart, the DAX remains in a well-defined primary uptrend, with price trading near 23,804 and holding comfortably above the rising 200-day SMA, which continues to act as the dominant long-term trend anchor. The 14-day SMA and 50-day SMA are both positively sloped and stacked above the 200-day, confirming that the structural trend remains bullish and that pullbacks are still being bought rather than sold. However, momentum is no longer expanding: the Stochastic Momentum Index at 28.15% is well below prior peaks while price continues to print higher highs, creating a clear bearish momentum divergence. This divergence does not negate the uptrend but signals that upside momentum is decelerating, increasing the probability of consolidation or a deeper corrective phase rather than a straight continuation. From a level perspective, 24,000 is the immediate psychological and structural resistance zone, with a sustained breakout opening the path toward 25,000. On the downside, first meaningful trend support sits near 21,000, aligning with prior breakout structure and the rising 200-day SMA, while a deeper correction could extend toward 19,676, a major former demand zone highlighted by repeated historical reactions. Trading approach: longer-term trend followers can remain constructive while price holds above 21,000, but should tighten risk controls given the momentum divergence; a logical protective stop for trend positions sits below 19,676, while more tactical traders should be alert for a corrective pullback before re-engaging on the long side.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the market is showing clearer signs of short-term exhaustion despite the broader uptrend. Price has recently pushed toward 25,247, but the rally has occurred alongside a sharply weakening SMI at around -70.97%, confirming a strong bearish divergence where price makes higher highs while momentum makes lower lows. This setup typically precedes either a sideways consolidation or a corrective downswing, rather than immediate trend continuation. The short-term moving averages (14- and 50-period) have begun to flatten, signalling loss of directional impulse, while the 200-period SMA below remains the key medium-term support reference. Immediate resistance is defined by 25,250, where sellers have already shown responsiveness; failure to reclaim and hold above this level keeps downside risk elevated. Initial support is 24,000, a key psychological and structural pivot, and a confirmed break below it would likely accelerate a move toward 23,000, where prior consolidation and moving-average confluence sit. Trading approach: short-term traders should be cautious chasing upside while divergence persists; rallies into 25,250 are vulnerable to rejection, with short setups favouring a stop above 26,000. For longs, higher-probability re-entries emerge only after a successful retest and hold of 24,000–23,000 accompanied by a stabilising or rising SMI, signalling that downside momentum is being absorbed rather than expanding.

Monday 19th January

The daily DAX chart remains structurally bullish, with price holding above all key moving averages and continuing to print higher highs and higher lows, which confirms the primary uptrend is intact. Price is currently around 23,804.906, reinforcing that pullbacks remain corrective within a broader bull market rather than trend-breaking. The 21,000 region marks former breakout resistance that has flipped into medium-term support, while the 19,676–18,018 zone represents a deeper demand area aligned with prior consolidation and the rising long-term trend base. However, momentum warrants caution: the Stochastic Momentum Index at 31.54% has been trending lower while price has continued to grind higher, highlighting a clear bearish momentum divergence. This does not invalidate the uptrend, but it does suggest upside is becoming more incremental and vulnerable to consolidation or a shallow pullback before any sustained extension. From a trading perspective, trend-followers can remain constructive while price holds above 21,000, targeting a continuation toward 24,000 and potentially 25,250, with a wider stop below 19,676 to respect the dominant trend structure. A daily close below 21,000 would be the first signal that the market is transitioning from trend continuation into a broader corrective phase.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the DAX shows signs of short-term exhaustion despite the intact higher-timeframe uptrend. Price near 25,259.584 has pushed to new recovery highs, but the Stochastic Momentum Index at -8.11% is firmly in negative territory, confirming a pronounced bearish divergence between price and momentum. This setup typically signals waning buying pressure and increases the probability of consolidation or a pullback toward rising support rather than immediate trend acceleration. The moving averages on this timeframe remain supportive, but they are flattening, which often precedes range-bound behaviour or a corrective rotation. Immediate resistance sits near 24,000, with any sustained acceptance above this level required to reopen upside toward 25,250. On the downside, initial support is seen near 23,000, followed by the more critical 21,000 level, where buyers would be expected to re-engage if the broader trend is to remain intact. Short-term traders should favour patience: breakout longs are cleaner only on a confirmed hold above 24,000, using a stop below 23,000, while counter-trend or defensive positioning is justified on failed rallies into resistance, targeting a mean reversion toward 23,000 and potentially 21,000 if momentum continues to deteriorate.

Friday 16th January

The daily chart retains a bullish longer-term bias, with price holding near the highs around 23,787 and continuing to trade above the rising long-term trend structure. Trend confirmation is strong: the 14-day SMA (blue) remains above the 50-day SMA (pink) and both are above the 200-day SMA (green), which is still sloping upward—this “stacked” moving-average alignment signals that pullbacks are more likely to be corrective within an uptrend rather than the start of a reversal. Price has been respecting prior breakout levels and your marked horizontal zones, with 19,676 acting as a major structural support (prior consolidation/breakout shelf) and 18,018 as the deeper “line-in-the-sand” support from earlier base formation. Momentum is supportive but not euphoric: the SMI is 51.5%, sitting in positive territory, consistent with trend continuation. Importantly, there is no clear bearish divergence on the daily chart—price has pushed higher and momentum has broadly held firm, suggesting buyers remain in control. Resistance is defined at 24,000 initially, then 25,200 (an upside projection/extension zone consistent with the next round-number/continuation target). Support sits at 23,000 (near the recent consolidation and moving-average cluster), then 21,000, with the major structural levels below at 19,676 and 18,018 if a deeper correction occurs. Trend-following longs remain favoured while price holds above the 50-day SMA, with a sensible protective stop below 22,800 (below the recent swing structure) for tighter risk, or below 21,000 for a wider swing position.

On the 4-hour chart, the market is bullish-to-neutral: price has broken higher into the 25,200 region (labelled around 25,208) after a strong rally from the mid-range, and it remains above the rising 200-period SMA (24,374), which is now key dynamic support. However, your annotations highlight a meaningful short-term caution: while price has surged to a new high, the SMI is negative (-21.7%), creating a bearish momentum divergence (price rising while momentum fails to confirm), which often signals that the immediate impulse is losing steam and that the next phase may be consolidation or a pullback rather than straight-line continuation. This doesn’t negate the uptrend, but it does reduce the probability of chasing strength at the highs without a reset in momentum. Resistance is now 25,200 (current breakout zone), then 26,000 as the next extension target if momentum re-accelerates. Support is layered at 24,600–24,400 (aligning with the 200-period SMA and the recent breakout structure), then 23,800 (prior swing zone). A tactical approach here is to either (1) wait for a pullback toward 24,400–24,600 and look for the SMI to recover (momentum reset) before re-engaging long, or (2) only add on a clean breakout continuation above 25,200 with improving momentum. For risk control, a short-term long stop below 24,350 aligns with the 200-period SMA; a break below that level would signal that the breakout is failing and that a deeper retracement toward 23,800 is more likely.