DAX
2 Jul 2025
DAX: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
Resistance | 24,100 then 24,500 |
Support |
23,570 then 23,000 |
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Resistance | 23,842 then 24,100 |
Support |
23,661 then 23,200 |
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
4-Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Wednesday 2nd July
The DAX is exhibiting a neutral longer-term outlook as price action consolidates near recent all-time highs, following a strong multi-month uptrend. Price remains above both the 50-day SMA at 23,569.92 and the 200-day SMA at 21,387.41, confirming that the long-term trend remains intact. However, recent sessions show a pullback from the highs near 24,100, with price now testing the 14-day SMA at around 23,500. Importantly, a clear bearish divergence is visible between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), as the index made higher highs in price while the SMI has made lower highs — currently falling at 34.51% and pointing lower. This suggests waning upside momentum despite the higher price structure, which introduces caution. Resistance levels are seen at 24,100 followed by a psychological round level at 24,500. Support levels are at the 50-day SMA (23,570) and the horizontal level near 23,000, which aligns with previous consolidation. Given the bearish momentum divergence and loss of momentum near resistance, a break below 23,570 could trigger a retest of 23,000. Traders may consider reducing long exposure unless the price convincingly breaks and closes above 24,100 with improving momentum. Stop losses on long trades should be placed below the 50-day SMA.
On the 4-hour chart, the DAX displays a short-term bearish outlook following a breakdown from its rising wedge structure formed since early May. Price is currently trading below the 200-period SMA (23,841.64) and is testing the 50-period SMA (23,660.98), with the 200-SMA now sloping downward — confirming near-term selling pressure. Additionally, the 14-period SMA has flattened and begun to roll slightly, signaling weakening trend strength. The Stochastic Momentum Index supports this bearish stance, with a clear divergence from the highs formed in June and momentum falling sharply to -47.07%, showing that recent upward moves lacked supporting strength. Immediate resistance lies at 23,842 (200-SMA), followed by 24,100. Key support is at the 50-SMA at 23,661, and further down at 23,200 — a key horizontal level from early June consolidation. The break in short-term momentum suggests traders may look to fade rallies into resistance, with stops placed just above 23,850. A confirmed breakdown below 23,200 would open the path toward 22,800 in the near term.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
4 Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Tuesday 1st July
The DAX remains in a long-term uptrend with price comfortably above all three major moving averages—14-day (blue), 50-day (pink), and 200-day (green)—which are all upward sloping. The recent rebound from mid-June lows has pushed price back toward its previous all-time highs near 24,000. However, a clear bearish divergence is developing as price makes higher highs while the Stochastic Momentum Index prints lower highs, now sitting at 50.73%. This divergence signals weakening upside momentum despite sustained bullish price action, raising the risk of a reversal or deeper correction. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high just below 24,000, with a breakout target near 24,400 if momentum can reassert itself. Key support lies at 23,529 (50-SMA), with further downside protection at 21,363 (200-SMA). The current outlook shifts to neutral with a bearish tilt due to momentum divergence; traders should be cautious of failed rallies and consider protective stops below 23,500, especially if the Stochastic continues to decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the DAX shows a bearish divergence between price and momentum as price formed higher highs in June while the Stochastic Momentum Index consistently made lower highs, now reversing sharply to -17.25%. Price has pulled back from recent highs and is hovering above the 14- and 50-period SMAs (23,879 and 23,583, respectively), both of which are flattening, indicating potential loss of trend strength. The 200-period SMA (not labeled but visible around 23,841) acts as key support in case of further pullback. This divergence warns of near-term exhaustion in the rally, and unless price quickly regains upside momentum, a deeper retracement is likely. Resistance is at 24,000, with a breakout potentially targeting 24,400. Immediate support lies at 23,580, with further downside risk toward 23,200 if that level breaks. Traders should consider short setups on failed rallies near resistance, placing stops above 24,050 to manage risk.
Monday 30th June
The DAX is exhibiting a neutral longer-term bias as the price continues to trade within a broad uptrend channel, yet a notable bearish divergence is forming between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI). While price has recently climbed to new highs near 24,000, supported by the rising 14-day (blue) and 50-day (pink) SMAs at 23,478 and 23,478 respectively, the SMI has failed to confirm the move, forming lower highs and currently printing at 50.04%. This divergence suggests weakening momentum despite price strength and raises the risk of a potential near-term pullback. The 200-day SMA at 21,337 underpins the longer-term bullish structure. Key resistance lies at the psychological 24,000 mark, followed by an extended target at 24,250. Initial support is at 23,478 (50-SMA), then 22,800, which served as a prior consolidation base. A daily close below 23,478 would confirm short-term exhaustion and likely initiate a retest of the 22,800–23,000 zone. A stop loss for long positions could be placed just below 23,350 to protect against a deeper correction.
The 4-hour chart indicates a short-term bullish trend as the DAX continues to push higher following a breakout above the 200-period SMA (green) at 23,829 and both the 14- and 50-period SMAs, now acting as dynamic support. However, the rally is facing potential exhaustion risk, with the SMI printing at 75.41% and diverging from price action—failing to rise alongside recent price highs. This bearish momentum divergence, seen against the upward-sloping orange trendline, suggests that while buyers remain in control for now, the strength of this rally may be fading. The index has entered overbought territory and is approaching a technical ceiling near 24,000. Resistance is at 24,000, then 24,250. Immediate support is at 23,829 (200-SMA), followed by 23,504 (50-SMA). If price breaks below 23,829 with momentum confirmation, a short-term correction could target 23,504 and potentially 23,200. Traders should remain cautiously long with a tight stop around 23,780 to lock in gains.
Friday 27th June
The daily chart shows a strong upward momentum, with the price consistently trading above the key moving averages. The 200-day moving average (green line) is acting as solid support around the 21,300 level, indicating a bullish trend. The 50-day (pink line) and 14-day (blue line) moving averages are aligned above the 200-day, confirming the strength of the ongoing uptrend. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is currently in positive territory, though it has not yet reached overbought levels, suggesting room for further upside potential. Resistance is likely near 23,500, followed by the 24,000 level. Immediate support can be found at 21,300, with the next level of strong support at 19,700. A stop loss below 21,000 is recommended to protect against potential pullbacks. The overall trend remains bullish as long as price maintains its position above the moving averages and the stochastic momentum indicator does not enter overbought territory.
The 4-hour chart displays a more neutral-to-bullish short-term outlook, as the price has recently recovered above key moving averages, including the 200-period SMA (green line) near 23,800. However, the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is at 46%, suggesting that momentum is still positive but not yet in an overbought zone. The price is facing some resistance around the 23,400 level, which is a key short-term hurdle. If this resistance breaks, the next target is 23,800. Support is located at 22,500, and a further downside target could be around 22,000 if the price fails to break the resistance. Traders should consider a stop loss near 22,500 to limit risk in case the upward momentum fades.
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