Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Neutral-to-Slightly Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Thursday 12th March

The daily chart remains neutral to bullish because the broader structure is still constructive, with price trading around 1.1752 and holding above the key horizontal breakout zone near 1.1450–1.1500, while the 200-day SMA is rising underneath price near the mid-1.16 area and continues to define the longer-term uptrend. The 14-day SMA and 50-day SMA are both clustered close to spot, showing that momentum has slowed after the recent push toward 1.20, but the fact that price is still above the 200-day SMA means the primary trend has not yet broken down. From a technical perspective, this is a classic consolidation just above former resistance, where old breakout levels often become new support. The Stochastic Momentum Index has dropped sharply into negative territory near -50.98%, which indicates that upside momentum has cooled materially even though price has not suffered a major price breakdown; that creates a mild bearish momentum divergence and suggests the pair may remain range-bound or retrace modestly before attempting another advance. As long as EUR/USD continues to hold above 1.1620, buyers still retain medium-term control, and a recovery through 1.1800 would likely bring 1.2000 back into view as the next major upside target. However, a sustained daily close below 1.1620 would weaken the bullish structure and expose 1.1450, which is the more important support zone and key line in the sand for the broader trend. For trading purposes, the preferred stance is to remain constructive on dips while price holds above 1.1620, with a stop loss below 1.1450 to protect against a deeper reversal.

The 4-hour chart has a neutral to slightly bearish short-term tone because price has recently broken down from the upper part of its range and is now trading around 1.1621, aligning with both the 14-period SMA and the 50-period SMA, while the 200-period SMA near 1.1789 remains higher and is flattening. This moving-average positioning is important because it shows short-term price action has weakened first, even though the broader higher-timeframe trend is still intact. The black horizontal level around 1.1550–1.1600 is now the immediate battleground: if price can stabilise above it, the current move may prove to be no more than a pullback within a wider uptrend, but failure to hold it would increase the probability of a deeper retracement toward 1.1450. The Stochastic Momentum Index on the 4-hour chart is only marginally positive around 1.45%, which tells us momentum has stopped collapsing but has not yet recovered strongly enough to confirm a bullish reversal. That weak momentum response after a decline suggests demand is tentative and supports the view that rallies may struggle unless price can reclaim the short-term moving averages. On the upside, 1.1620 is the first resistance because it aligns with current price and the immediate breakdown area, while 1.1790 is the more significant recovery target near the 200-period SMA and prior swing highs. On the downside, 1.1550 is first support and 1.1450 is the next major target if sellers regain control. For traders, the short-term bias stays cautious while price remains below 1.1620, with a stop loss above 1.1790 for bearish setups, while bullish traders should wait for a firmer reclaim of 1.1620 and improving momentum before positioning for a renewed move higher.

Wednesday 11th March

The daily chart is best described as neutral because EUR/USD remains in a broader recovery structure, but the latest price action is now consolidating right around the major moving-average cluster rather than trending cleanly in one direction. Price is sitting near 1.1756, with the 14-day and 50-day moving averages flattening around current levels and the 200-day moving average having turned higher underneath, which tells us the longer-term downtrend has already been repaired but follow-through buying is starting to stall. The black horizontal level around 1.1600 remains a key pivot because it has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support, making it an important reference for whether the market is simply digesting gains or beginning a deeper retracement. Momentum is the main cautionary signal here: the Stochastic Momentum Index has fallen to roughly -45.29% even though price is still holding relatively high in the range, which reflects bearish momentum divergence and loss of upside thrust after the push toward the 1.19–1.20 region. That does not yet invalidate the broader recovery, but it does suggest that rallies may struggle unless buyers can force a clean break back through 1.1760 and then 1.2000, which is the next major swing-high zone and psychological barrier. On the downside, 1.1600 is the first important support because it marks the key range pivot and sits close to the moving-average support band, while 1.1400 is the next more meaningful structural support and a break below there would signal that the daily recovery phase has likely failed. In trading terms, this setup favours patience rather than aggressive chasing: medium-term bulls can still lean constructive while price holds above 1.1600, but entries are better taken on controlled pullbacks, with a protective stop below 1.1400 to guard against a larger reversal.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral short-term outlook because the market is attempting to stabilise after a sharp selloff, but price has not yet reclaimed enough resistance to confirm that a durable bullish reversal is underway. EUR/USD is trading around the 1.16 area, close to the 50-period moving average, while still below the 200-period moving average near 1.1797, which means the immediate downside pressure has eased but the broader short-term structure remains capped overhead. This is a classic recovery-versus-reversal setup: when price bounces back above the faster moving averages but remains below the 200-period average, the market is improving tactically without yet re-establishing full trend control. The Stochastic Momentum Index has rebounded to about 54.61%, confirming that short-term momentum has turned higher from oversold territory, and that strengthens the case for a relief rally. However, because this improving oscillator is coming after a strong downside move and while price is still trapped under the major 200-period average, the signal should be treated as rebound momentum rather than a confirmed fresh uptrend. First resistance sits at 1.1650, where the current recovery is meeting the fast-average cluster and recent breakdown zone, while a stronger push through there would target 1.1800, which aligns with the 200-period moving average and the next major supply area. Support is seen first at 1.1580, the nearby reaction low and short-term pivot, then at 1.1480, which is the next meaningful downside level if sellers regain control. The practical implication is that short-term traders should respect the rebound but remain selective: bullish trades are more attractive only while price holds above 1.1580, with upside targets toward 1.1650 and 1.1800, while a stop loss below 1.1480 is appropriate because a break there would invalidate the recovery attempt and shift the short-term bias back to bearish.

Tuesday 10th March

The daily chart is best classified as neutral, with EUR/USD still holding within a broader recovery structure but now losing upside momentum as price slips back toward the key moving-average cluster. Price is trading around 1.1759, with the 50-day SMA effectively converged near current levels and the 200-day SMA rising underneath around the 1.17 area, which tells us the longer-term trend has improved materially from the 2024 lows but is no longer in a clean impulsive advance. The horizontal level around 1.1750 to 1.1800 is particularly important because it has acted as both resistance and support in recent price action, making it a decision zone for the next directional move. From a momentum perspective, the Stochastic Momentum Index has dropped to around -46.44% while price remains well above the major 2024 base, showing that short-term momentum has weakened faster than price itself; that is a bearish momentum divergence in the context of the recent highs, and it suggests buyers are losing control even though the broader structure has not yet broken down. This matters because divergences often appear before trend continuation pauses or corrective pullbacks. Immediate resistance sits at 1.1800, where price is meeting the recent ceiling and moving-average congestion, and a daily close above that would reopen the path toward 1.1900, the next major upside target and recent swing-high area. On the downside, 1.1660 is the first meaningful support because it aligns with the lower edge of the current moving-average band and recent reaction lows, while 1.1500 is the more important secondary support as it marks a deeper structural shelf and would represent a more significant loss of trend integrity if broken. The preferred trading stance on the daily timeframe is patient rather than aggressive: bullish continuation only regains conviction on a sustained break above 1.1800, while a failure below 1.1660 would favour a deeper retracement, with a protective stop for long positioning best placed below 1.1500.

The 4-hour chart is bearish in the short term, as price has rolled over from the February highs and broken back below both the 14-period SMA at 1.1586 and the 50-period SMA at 1.1669, while the 200-period SMA near 1.1801 is now overhead and acting as stronger dynamic resistance. This moving-average alignment is significant because it shows the short-term trend has deteriorated: the faster averages have turned down, price is trading beneath them, and the longer average remains above the market, which typically reflects a corrective or bearish phase rather than a trending advance. The recent decline also broke back through the mid-range horizontal pivot around 1.1600 to 1.1670, confirming that prior support has turned into resistance. The Stochastic Momentum Index has recovered only marginally to around 3.78% after being deeply oversold, which indicates that although downside momentum has paused, the bounce lacks conviction and has not yet produced a meaningful bullish reversal signal. In other words, momentum is stabilising, but price has not reclaimed the technical levels needed to shift the outlook. Immediate resistance is 1.1670, which is the first recovery barrier because it aligns with the 50-period SMA and the breakdown zone; above that, 1.1800 is the more important resistance and would only come into play if buyers can rebuild the short-term structure. On the downside, 1.1585 is the first support as it marks the recent reaction floor and current price zone, while 1.1500 is the next major downside target if sellers extend the breakdown. Tactically, rallies into 1.1670 should be viewed cautiously unless price can reclaim and hold above that level, and the preferred short-term approach remains defensive with a bearish bias, using a stop loss above 1.1800 because a recovery through that level would invalidate the immediate bearish structure and suggest the correction has ended.

Monday 9th March

The daily chart still holds a neutral to bullish longer-term bias because, despite the recent pullback, the broader structure remains one of higher highs and higher lows from the 2024 base, and price is still holding above the rising 200-day moving average, which is sitting around 1.1600 and acting as the key trend support. The 50-day moving average is near 1.1759 and had been supporting the advance, but price has now slipped back below that medium-term trend line, which signals that upside momentum has weakened and the market has moved into a corrective phase rather than a clean continuation leg. The main resistance is 1.1760, where the 50-day moving average and the recent consolidation ceiling now overlap, and if buyers can reclaim that area convincingly, the next upside target is 1.1900, followed by the prior swing highs near the 1.20 region. On the downside, 1.1600 is the first major support because it aligns with the base of the latest breakout zone, while 1.1350 is the deeper structural support marked by the horizontal breakout level and prior range ceiling. The Stochastic Momentum Indicator has fallen to roughly -59.73%, which shows momentum has deteriorated sharply as price rolled over from recent highs. That matters because when momentum turns lower this aggressively while price is still relatively elevated versus the long-term trend, it often signals distribution or at least a deeper consolidation phase before trend resumption. In effect, momentum is no longer confirming the prior bullish advance, so the daily chart loses some of its upside conviction. Traders should therefore treat the current move as a pullback within a broader uptrend unless 1.1600 and especially 1.1350 break decisively; a recovery back above 1.1760 would restore bullish control and reopen 1.1900, while a sensible stop loss for long positions sits below 1.1600 for tighter positioning, or below 1.1350 for a wider swing view.

The 4-hour chart is bearish in the short term because price has broken sharply lower through the 14-period moving average at 1.1596 and the 50-period moving average at 1.1695, with the selloff also pushing the market back toward the horizontal support zone around 1.1470. The 200-period moving average remains higher near 1.1805, which shows that the broader medium-term structure had been constructive, but the fact that price is now trading well below all three moving averages indicates that short-term trend control has clearly shifted to sellers. This is an important technical transition because once price moves beneath the shorter moving averages and those averages begin rolling over, they tend to turn from support into resistance on rebounds. That makes 1.1596 the first resistance to watch, as it is the nearest dynamic ceiling, while 1.1695 is the more important resistance above it because reclaiming that level would suggest the breakdown was a false move and would materially improve the short-term picture. On the downside, 1.1470 is the first support because it marks the current horizontal floor being tested, and 1.1400 is the next downside target if that level gives way. The Stochastic Momentum Indicator is around -21.39%, which confirms that downside momentum is still present, though it is not yet as deeply stretched as on the daily timeframe. There is no strong bullish divergence visible yet, because price has broken lower and momentum has also weakened rather than improving against the decline, so the momentum reading supports the bearish short-term bias rather than contradicting it. From a trading perspective, rallies into 1.1596 may be sold unless price can reclaim that area decisively; if sellers remain in control, the likely path is toward 1.1470 and then 1.1400. A prudent stop loss for short positions would sit above 1.1695, because a recovery through that level would invalidate the current short-term bearish structure.

Friday 6th March

The daily structure has shifted from a clean uptrend into a topping/consolidation phase, with price failing to hold the recent highs near the 1.20 handle and rolling back into the prior breakout zone around 1.16–1.18. The moving averages are compressing: the 14-day SMA is turning down toward price (showing the immediate trend has weakened), while the 50-day SMA is sitting around 1.1764 and is now acting as first “trend-decision” resistance after the pullback, meaning rallies back into that level are likely to meet supply unless buyers can reclaim it decisively. The 200-day SMA is still rising (longer-term trend not fully broken), but the Stochastic Momentum Index is deeply negative at roughly -55.12%, which signals strong downside momentum and also highlights bearish momentum divergence versus the earlier push toward 1.20 (price reached higher levels, but momentum has since failed and reversed). That divergence typically implies the market needs time to correct or base before the bulls can reassert control. In that context, 1.1600 is the first key support (recent swing structure and round-number psychology), and a break below it would increase the probability of a deeper mean-reversion move toward 1.1450 (next notable demand area from prior congestion). On the upside, reclaiming 1.1764 would stabilise the chart and put 1.2000 back in play, but until that happens the risk remains skewed to further downside. Traders looking to fade rallies can lean against 1.1764 with a stop loss above 1.1840, while dip-buyers should wait for price to hold above 1.1600 and see the SMI improve before stepping in.

The 4-hour chart confirms the short-term bearish swing: the sharp sell-off has pushed price down toward the 14-period SMA near 1.1614, while the 50-period SMA at 1.1722 has flipped into overhead resistance, and the 200-period SMA at 1.1889 is now well above price, showing the market has moved from “trend continuation” into “corrective/mean-reversion” mode on this timeframe. This alignment (price below the 50 and 200, with the fast average near price) typically means rebounds are more likely to be corrective bounces rather than the start of a new impulsive up-leg unless price can regain the 50-period SMA. Momentum is also still weak: the Stochastic Momentum Index is negative at about -22.65%, supporting the bearish bias and indicating sellers still have control even after the initial flush lower. Key support is the 1.1610–1.1600 zone (current pivot and prior reaction area); if that fails, 1.1500 becomes the next downside target as a psychological level and a likely liquidity magnet from earlier consolidation. For the bearish setup, the cleaner trade location is selling failed rebounds into 1.1722 (or a retest of 1.1760 if it extends), with a stop loss above 1.1785–1.1800 to protect against a trend snapback; for any counter-trend long, it’s higher risk and needs confirmation (hold above 1.1600 plus rising SMI), with a tight stop below 1.1550.