Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Tuesday 25th August

EUR/USD is trading at 1.16666 (+0.02%), having just pushed back above all three key moving averages after a multi-month slide from the April highs near 1.1800. The 200-day average (green, 1.16320) — the slowest-moving and most significant of the three — has just been reclaimed, which is notable because it had capped every rally attempt since price broke below it in June; that flip from resistance to support is one of the clearer longer-term trend signals on this chart. The 14-day average (red, 1.15939) and 50-day average (yellow, 1.14772) both remain below price and are curling upward, though the 50-day in particular reflects how deep the summer correction ran and will take time to catch up. Immediate resistance sits at 1.17000, a round-number level that also roughly marks the shelf of consolidation from June before the breakdown, with a move above opening the way toward 1.18000, the base of the January–April topping structure. The stochastic momentum index is reading 66/70, firm and rising but not yet at a classically overbought extreme — price and momentum are advancing together with no divergence, supporting the idea that this reclaim has real conviction rather than being a false break, though a push toward 80+ would raise caution about near-term exhaustion. Support on any pullback is at 1.16320 (the newly reclaimed 200-day average, the key level to hold), then 1.15939 (the 14-day average); a stop loss placed below 1.14772 (the 50-day average) would protect against the recovery failing and price resuming the broader downtrend.

                                                              Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral

Monday 24th August

EUR/USD’s daily chart shows the pair recovering from a summer decline: after peaking near 1.1870 in February and cycling through a broad range for most of the year, the pair sold off sharply from July into a low near 1.1300, and has since rallied back to 1.16791, reclaiming both the 14-day MA (red, 1.15869) and the 200-day MA (green, 1.16316), with the 50-day MA (yellow, 1.14763) still trailing well below as it continues to reflect the recent downswing. The reclaim of the 200-day MA is the more significant technical development here, since that average represents the pair’s longer-term equilibrium and had capped several bounce attempts on the way down through July and early August; trading back above it suggests buyers have regained the upper hand on a longer time horizon. Immediate resistance sits at the 1.1800 level, which marks the ceiling of the range that held for most of the spring, with 1.2000 as the more ambitious target if the recovery extends into a fresh multi-month high. On the downside, the 200-day MA at 1.16316 is now the first support, with the 14-day MA at 1.15869 just beneath it, and the more important 50-day MA at 1.14763 as the deeper floor should the rally stall. The Stochastic Momentum Index is running hot at 74.69956/75.57309, moving in step with the price advance rather than diverging from it, so momentum is confirming the current strength; however, the chart shows this indicator has repeatedly reached similar overbought extremes throughout the year only to reverse and pull price back into consolidation, which argues for some near-term caution even within an otherwise constructive picture. Traders looking to participate could target continuation toward 1.1800 and eventually 1.2000, with a stop loss placed below the 200-day MA around 1.1600 to protect against a failed reclaim.

Friday 21st August

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair breaking decisively higher, with price at 1.16896 having reclaimed the 200-day moving average (green, 1.16312) — a level that had capped the market since the spring decline and had been trending gently downward through the summer consolidation, making today’s push above it a meaningful shift in the longer-term picture. Price is also now trading above the 50-day (yellow, 1.14747) and 14-day (red, 1.15770) averages, which are still in the process of turning up after months of decline, and this stacking — price above the shorter averages, which are in turn now approaching the longer 200-day line from below — is consistent with an emerging trend reversal rather than a completed one. The Stochastic Momentum Index has surged to 79.22557/77.58287, deep into overbought territory following a sharp, fast rally off the July low near 1.1450; this doesn’t invalidate the bullish signal, but it does argue for some caution, since a move this fast is often followed by at least a partial retracement before the next leg develops. Immediate resistance is at 1.1690 (today’s high and the 200-day average zone), with a clean break opening a path toward 1.1800, the area that acted as resistance during the February failed rally. Traders looking to position for continuation should target 1.1800, with a stop below 1.1475 (the 50-day average) to guard against a failed breakout that would signal the broader downtrend from earlier in the year is still intact.

The 4-hour chart confirms the near-term bullish structure, with price at 1.16893 trading above the 14-period (1.16570), 50-period (1.15842), and 200-period (1.14846) moving averages in properly stacked bullish order, following a sharp advance off the early-August base near 1.1400. This reclaim of the 200-period average — after months spent below it during the steady spring-to-summer decline — mirrors the type of setup that has historically preceded sustained moves on this pair, and the clean separation between all three averages suggests the short-term trend has genuine conviction rather than being a thin, low-volume bounce. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at 64.06496/65.67373, moderately elevated but with the orange signal line just above the blue SMI line, hinting at a small loss of upside thrust that could translate into a brief pause or shallow pullback before the rally resumes, rather than signaling an imminent reversal given the reading isn’t yet in extreme territory. Immediate resistance is at 1.1690 (today’s high, coinciding with the daily 200-day average), with a break there clearing the way toward 1.1800; on the downside, 1.1657 (14-period average) is the first support to watch on any pullback, with 1.1584 (50-period average) as the more important level to hold for the short-term structure to remain intact. A stop just below 1.1584 suits tactical long entries here, while traders treating this as a longer-swing position may prefer a stop below 1.1485 (200-period average) to allow more room for the move to develop.