Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Slightly Bearish

Friday 13th March

The daily chart remains bullish because price is still trading at 5,082.925 in a strong long-term uptrend, well above the 200-day SMA at 4,050.472, which confirms that the primary trend is still higher and that deeper pullbacks remain corrective unless that longer-term average is decisively broken. The 14-day SMA is still leading price from below and the 50-day SMA is also rising, showing positive trend alignment, although the recent candles suggest momentum is no longer accelerating at the same pace as it was during the prior breakout leg. That slowing momentum is reinforced by the Stochastic Momentum Index, which has rolled back to around -14.97% while price remains close to its highs; this is a mild bearish momentum divergence, meaning price is holding elevated levels but the oscillator is no longer confirming fresh strength, often an early sign of consolidation or a shallow retracement rather than an outright trend reversal. Technically, 5,150 is the first resistance because it marks the recent high zone and the area where supply emerged, while a clean break above that level would likely open the way toward 5,300 as the next measured extension. On the downside, 5,000 is the first key support because it is a round number and sits near the recent consolidation base, while 4,800 is the more important secondary support as it aligns with prior swing structure and the rising medium-term trend path. The preferred approach remains buying controlled weakness rather than chasing strength, with a bullish bias maintained while price holds above 5,000, and a protective stop for directional longs best placed below 4,800 to allow for normal volatility without remaining exposed to a deeper trend breakdown.

The 4-hour chart shows a more cautious setup, with price at 5,081.920 moving sideways after a strong advance and compressing around the short-term moving averages, which signals loss of immediate trend momentum even though the broader structure has not yet broken down. The 200-period SMA is still rising underneath price and continues to act as dynamic trend support, but the recent inability to extend cleanly above the February swing high, combined with the Stochastic Momentum Index falling to around -35.41%, points to short-term bearish divergence: price is holding near the upper end of the range while momentum has weakened materially, suggesting that buyers are no longer in full control and that a pullback or extended consolidation is increasingly likely before any sustainable breakout. In this timeframe, 5,120 is the first resistance because it caps the most recent rebound attempts, and 5,250 is the next upside target if price can reclaim trend momentum and break out of the current compression zone. On the downside, 5,000 is the first support because it is the immediate horizontal shelf and psychological level, while 4,900 is the stronger secondary support as it represents the lower end of the recent range and a level where buyers would need to reassert themselves to preserve the short-term bullish structure. Tactically, this chart favours patience: aggressive longs are better taken only on a confirmed break above 5,120, while a failure below 5,000 would shift control further toward sellers and expose 4,900 next. For short-term traders leaning defensive, a stop above 5,120 makes sense on bearish positioning, while for breakout longs a stop just under 5,000 would be the cleaner risk boundary.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Slightly Bearish

Thursday 12th March

The daily chart remains bullish from a longer-term trend perspective, with price still trading well above the 200-day SMA, which sits near 4,042 and continues to slope higher, confirming that the broader primary trend remains intact. The 50-day SMA in pink and the 14-day SMA in blue are both still positioned above the 200-day SMA and close to current price, which shows that medium-term trend structure is still constructive even though momentum has cooled. After the recent strong rally into the 5,150 region, price is now consolidating just beneath a key overhead resistance zone around 5,200, with a stronger breakout target near 5,350 if buyers regain control. The Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled back into slightly negative territory while price remains near the highs, which suggests short-term momentum divergence and weakening upside impulse rather than a confirmed trend reversal; in practice, that usually points to consolidation or a shallow pullback before the next directional move. As long as price holds above the 5,050 area and particularly above the rising 50-day SMA, dips are likely to be viewed as retracements within an ongoing uptrend rather than the start of a broader bearish reversal. A sustained daily close above 5,200 would strengthen the bullish case and open the way toward 5,350, while a failure to hold 5,050 would expose a deeper correction toward 4,800. For traders aligned with the trend, the preferred stance remains buy-on-weakness rather than chasing strength, with a protective stop loss below 4,800 to allow for normal volatility while respecting the bullish higher-high, higher-low structure.

The 4-hour chart shows a more cautious picture, with price moving sideways around 5,149 after a sharp advance and now compressing near the 50-period SMA in pink while the 200-period SMA in green continues to rise underneath price, preserving the broader short-term uptrend but signalling loss of immediate momentum. This type of behaviour often reflects a transition from impulsive trending conditions into range trade, where the market tests whether buyers still have enough strength to force a breakout. The recent highs in the 5,200-5,320 region form the key resistance band, while the 5,080 area is the first meaningful support and 4,980 is the more important breakdown level near the lower edge of the recent consolidation structure. The Stochastic Momentum Index is around -16.99%, which indicates that momentum has weakened materially despite price remaining relatively elevated; that divergence between flat-to-firm price and softer momentum suggests upside pressure is fading and increases the risk of another short-term dip before any renewed advance. Even so, because price is still holding above the rising 200-period SMA, the bearish signal is not yet strong enough to call a full trend reversal. A clean break and hold above 5,200 would shift the short-term outlook back to bullish and target 5,320, but if price slips below 5,080, sellers may press the market toward 4,980 and potentially the 200-period SMA. For near-term trading, patience is warranted: breakout traders can wait for confirmation above 5,200, while short-term defensive positioning below 5,080 is reasonable, with a stop loss above 5,220 for bearish setups or below 4,980 for bullish rebound trades.

Wednesday 11th March

The daily chart still reflects a powerful primary uptrend, with price at 5,191.510 holding well above the 200-day SMA near 4,033.360 and also above the 50-day and 14-day averages, which confirms that the broader structure remains constructive. However, the technical tone has become more cautious at current levels because price is pressing near fresh highs while the Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled down to around -13.53%, showing a loss of momentum on the daily timeframe even as price remains elevated. That kind of momentum fade after an extended advance often signals exhaustion rather than immediate reversal, which is why the longer-term trend is still positive but the current daily outlook is better classified as neutral until the market either breaks cleanly above resistance or retraces into stronger support. The 5,250 zone is the first key ceiling because it marks the recent peak area, while a decisive breakout would open the way toward 5,500 as the next psychological and trend-extension target. On the downside, 5,050 is the first meaningful support because it aligns with the rising short-to-medium-term moving average cluster and the recent consolidation base; below that, 4,800 becomes the more important structural support area and a failure there would imply a deeper correction toward the longer-term trend. In practical terms, trend-following traders can still favour buying dips rather than chasing strength, but entries are better taken on pullbacks toward support rather than into resistance, with a protective stop loss below 4,800 to respect the possibility that weakening daily momentum could develop into a broader retracement.

The 4-hour chart shows a more constructive short-term setup, with price at 5,192.300 consolidating above the 200-period SMA and holding above both the 50-period and 14-period averages, which indicates that the recent surge has transitioned into a bullish continuation phase rather than a full reversal lower. Unlike the daily chart, the shorter-term Stochastic Momentum Index has recovered to about 55.93%, confirming that momentum has turned back up after the recent consolidation and supporting the case for another attempt higher. This difference between the two timeframes is important: the daily chart is warning that the broader move is stretched, but the 4-hour chart suggests buyers still control the immediate tape. The first resistance sits around 5,280, which reflects the recent swing-high cluster and the area where sellers previously emerged; a clean break above that level would likely open the path toward 5,400, where the next measured upside extension sits. Support is initially seen at 5,100, which is near the recent consolidation floor and short-term moving average support, while 4,950 is the more critical line in the sand because a break below that level would weaken the current higher-low structure and likely trigger a deeper retracement back toward the 200-period trend support. The preferred strategy on this timeframe remains bullish while price holds above 5,100, with upside probes favoured on dips and a stop loss below 4,950, because that would invalidate the near-term bullish structure and confirm that short-term momentum has failed.

Tuesday 10th March

The daily chart remains bullish from a trend-structure perspective, because price is still trading well above the rising 200-day SMA at 4,024.061 and above the broader breakout base that formed through 2024, which confirms that the primary uptrend is still intact. The 14-day SMA is tracking tightly around current price near 5,141.905, showing that the market is consolidating rather than breaking down, while the 50-day SMA remains positively sloped underneath price and continues to act as dynamic medium-term support. That said, momentum has clearly cooled: the Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled over to around -23.10% even though price is still holding close to its highs, which signals a bearish momentum divergence in the sense that price has stayed elevated while momentum has failed to confirm with a fresh push higher. This does not reverse the longer-term uptrend on its own, but it does warn that upside may be slower and more corrective before any sustained continuation move. A clean break above 5,200 would signal that buyers have regained control and would open the way toward 5,350, which is the next logical extension zone based on the recent peak area and continuation structure. On the downside, 5,000 is the first key support because it is both a psychological round number and the approximate zone where prior breakout demand should re-emerge; below that, 4,800 becomes the more important retracement support and would likely align with the rising 50-day trend support zone. The preferred strategy remains buy-on-dips while price holds above 5,000, with a more defensive stop loss below 4,800, because a daily close beneath that level would suggest the current consolidation is turning into a deeper corrective phase rather than a healthy pause within the uptrend.

The 4-hour chart shows a more neutral-to-mildly bullish short-term picture, with price at 5,141.570 compressing just beneath resistance after recovering from the sharp February shakeout and re-establishing itself above the rising 200-period SMA, which confirms that the immediate structure has improved. The 50-period SMA is flattening just around the current market, and the 14-period SMA is also clustered nearby, which tells us the market is in a short-term balance zone rather than in a clean impulsive trend. The Stochastic Momentum Index has only rebounded to about 8.55%, which is positive but still subdued relative to the strength of the earlier price advance, so momentum is not fully confirming the recent retest of the highs; that creates a mild bearish divergence risk and suggests the market may need another consolidation leg before a decisive breakout. Immediate resistance sits at 5,180, where recent rallies have stalled, and a break above that would expose 5,260, the next overhead supply area from the recent swing highs. On the downside, 5,100 is the first important support because it marks the near-term consolidation floor and sits close to the cluster of short-term moving averages; if that gives way, 5,000 becomes the next downside target and the more meaningful line in the sand for short-term bulls. Tactically, this setup favours patience rather than aggressive chasing: traders can stay constructive while price remains above 5,100, but fresh longs are better taken on dips or on a confirmed breakout above 5,180, with a stop loss below 5,000, because a break under that level would indicate that the recovery has failed and that the market is likely rotating into a broader short-term correction.

Monday 9th March

The daily chart remains bullish from a primary trend perspective, as price is still trading well above the 200-day moving average, which sits near 4,015 and continues to slope higher, confirming that the broader trend is still intact. The 50-day moving average is also rising and has acted as dynamic trend support throughout the latest leg higher, while the 14-day moving average is hugging price closely, showing that the market is still in an advancing structure despite some loss of momentum. Price is consolidating just above the psychological 5,000 area after a strong impulsive rally, and that zone now becomes the first major support because it marks both a round-number level and a recent breakout area. The next key support is around 4,650, which is where prior consolidation and moving-average support begin to cluster; a break below that zone would suggest the uptrend is losing control and would shift the longer-term picture toward neutral. On the upside, 5,250 is the first resistance as it represents the recent swing high region, and a clean break above that would open the way toward 5,500 as the next measured continuation target. The main caution on the daily chart is momentum: the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is still below zero at roughly -21.34% while price remains near its highs, which suggests momentum is not fully confirming the strength of the recent price advance. That creates a mild bearish divergence-style warning, meaning buyers still have trend control, but upside may come in a slower, more corrective fashion rather than through an immediate breakout. From a trading perspective, the preferred bias remains to buy pullbacks rather than chase strength, with upside targets toward 5,250 and then 5,500, while a prudent stop loss for bullish positioning would sit below 4,650, where the recent structure would be invalidated.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral-to-bullish short-term structure, with price currently around 5,099 and holding above both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, which is constructive because it indicates the recent recovery from the sharp pullback has rebuilt trend support underneath the market. The 200-period moving average is rising and sits below current price, reinforcing the idea that medium-term buyers are still active, while the 50-period moving average has flattened near current levels, showing the market is in a consolidation phase rather than a clean directional expansion. Price has recovered strongly from the earlier washout and is now compressing just under the recent highs, so 5,150 is the first resistance to monitor because it is the immediate ceiling from the latest rebound attempts; if that gives way, 5,300 becomes the next upside objective and would represent a retest of the prior spike high zone. On the downside, 5,000 is the first support because it is both a psychological level and a near-term structure floor, while 4,850 is the more important support beneath it, aligning with the rising moving-average cluster and prior reaction lows. Momentum is positive but not overly strong, with the Stochastic Momentum Indicator around 21.40%, which tells us short-term momentum has improved but is not yet in an aggressive trending state. Importantly, price is retesting high ground without a much stronger momentum reading than seen during earlier surges, so there is some evidence of momentum non-confirmation, which supports a neutral rather than outright aggressively bullish short-term stance. That means traders should respect the possibility of a breakout, but also be aware that failure near 5,150 could trigger another rotation back toward 5,000 or 4,850. The cleaner setup would be a confirmed break above 5,150 for continuation toward 5,300, or a pullback into support that holds. For long-biased trades, a sensible stop loss would sit below 4,850, because a break beneath that level would damage the current higher-low structure and tilt the short-term outlook back to bearish.

Friday 6th March

The daily chart remains structurally bullish because price is still trading well above the 200-day SMA at 4,005.274, which confirms the primary uptrend is intact, and the 50-day SMA continues to slope upward beneath price, showing the medium-term trend is still supportive. The 14-day SMA is sitting close to current price around the 5,050–5,100 area, which tells us the market is consolidating rather than breaking down. That said, momentum has clearly cooled: the Stochastic Momentum Index is at roughly -16.52%, which is weak relative to how close price remains to its highs, and this creates a mild bearish momentum divergence signal because price is holding elevated levels while momentum is no longer confirming the prior impulse. In practical terms, that does not yet reverse the longer-term uptrend, but it does warn that upside may be slower and more corrective before the next leg higher. The key near-term support is the psychological and structural 5,000 zone, with stronger trend support around 4,850 where prior pullbacks and the rising 50-day average should attract buyers. On the upside, a clean break above 5,250 would suggest renewed trend strength and open the way toward 5,420. The preferred stance is still buy-on-dips while price holds above 4,850, with a protective stop loss below 4,780, because a break under that region would signal that the current consolidation is turning into a deeper medium-term correction.

The 4-hour chart shows a much less convincing picture than the daily timeframe, with price sitting almost exactly on the key 5,088.220 pivot and only marginally above the 200-period SMA, meaning short-term trend control is becoming contested. The 50-period SMA has flattened and price is oscillating around the short-term moving averages rather than trending cleanly away from them, which is typical of a market in consolidation after a strong advance. Momentum is the main warning sign here: the Stochastic Momentum Index is around -23.19%, which shows short-term momentum has weakened materially, and because price is still holding relatively high levels while momentum remains subdued, this points to bearish divergence and fading buying pressure. That divergence suggests rallies into 5,150 may struggle initially, and unless price can reclaim and hold above that level, the market is vulnerable to another retest of 5,000. A break below 5,000 would expose 4,900, which is the next meaningful support zone and a level where dip buyers may re-emerge. Conversely, if bulls can push through 5,150 and then clear 5,280, that would invalidate the immediate bearish pressure and restore the short-term uptrend. For now, the tactical approach is cautious: traders should avoid chasing strength unless 5,150 is reclaimed decisively, while short-term bearish setups below that level can use a stop loss above 5,285.