Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Friday 13th March

The daily chart has shifted to a bullish longer-term bias after a powerful breakout from the multi-month base, with price surging to 88.6100 and decisively reclaiming both the 14-day SMA at 79.3827 and the 50-day SMA at 67.0206, while the 200-day SMA is now curling higher underneath price and confirming that the broader structure is improving. This type of moving average realignment is important because when price trades above all three key averages, it usually signals trend expansion rather than a mere short-covering bounce. The immediate resistance comes in around 88.50, which is the current breakout area and recent spike zone, and if buyers can hold above that region on a closing basis the next upside target is near 98.00, where prior congestion and psychological resistance are likely to attract profit-taking. On the downside, 79.40 is now the first meaningful support because it aligns with the fast 14-day average and the breakout retest area, while 67.00 is the more critical medium-term support because it sits near the 50-day average and marks the base from which this impulsive rally accelerated. The Stochastic Momentum Index has eased back to around -10.70% even as price remains elevated, which points to a mild bearish divergence in momentum; this does not yet invalidate the breakout, but it does suggest upside may become more volatile and that a consolidation or retest phase could develop before the next leg higher. From a trading perspective, the bias remains to buy pullbacks rather than chase extended candles, with 98.00 as the upside objective while price holds above 79.40, and a sensible stop loss for bullish positioning sits below 67.00 because a break back under that level would imply the breakout has failed and the trend reversal thesis is weakening materially.

The 4-hour chart is bullish in the short term, although it is now entering a more tactical phase after an explosive vertical advance. Price has accelerated sharply above the 200-period SMA at 69.9294, with the 14-period SMA at 90.4210 and 50-period SMA at 85.5031 both rising steeply, showing strong short-term trend control by buyers. The significance of this setup is that the shorter averages are now acting as dynamic support zones, meaning dips into those levels are likely to be watched closely for continuation entries. Immediate resistance is around 90.40, which marks the latest short-term swing area and near-term breakout threshold, and a sustained push through that zone would expose 98.00 as the next upside target, matching the next major daily chart objective. Support is seen first at 85.50, where the rising 50-period SMA and recent consolidation overlap, followed by 79.40, which is the deeper breakout support and a much more important line in the sand for the current advance. The Stochastic Momentum Index at 58.26% remains in positive territory, which confirms ongoing bullish momentum, but because price recently printed a spike toward the 118 area and then pulled back sharply, traders should be alert to volatility and possible exhaustion after such an extended move. There is not yet a clean bearish divergence on this timeframe because momentum has recovered with price, but the recent spike-reversal behaviour shows that overhead supply is active and that breakouts may initially be messy. Tactically, this supports a bullish-but-disciplined approach: continuation longs are favoured on holds above 85.50 or a confirmed break above 90.40, targeting 98.00, while a stop loss below 79.40 is appropriate because a move back through that level would suggest the post-breakout structure is deteriorating and that a broader pullback is unfolding.

     Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bullish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bullish

Thursday 12th March

The daily chart has shifted back to a bullish longer-term bias following a decisive breakout from the multi-month base, with price surging to around 86.49 and reclaiming all three major moving averages. The 14-day SMA at 76.83 and the 50-day SMA at 66.13 are now both rising and positioned below price, while the 200-day SMA is also turning into a broader trend support marker, which is significant because a move back above these averages after a prolonged sideways-to-down period often signals the beginning of a trend reversal rather than just a short-covering bounce. The rally has now pushed into a major historical resistance band around 86.50, which has capped price several times in the past, and a clean break above that level would open the way toward 95.00, where prior congestion and failed rallies suggest the next meaningful upside objective. The Stochastic Momentum Index is slightly negative at around -10.74% despite price being near the top of the recent surge, which reflects a loss of immediate momentum and mild bearish divergence; that does not yet invalidate the bullish structure, but it does suggest the market may pause or retrace before attempting another leg higher. In practical terms, this means trend traders should remain constructive while recognising that chasing extended strength directly into resistance carries poorer risk-reward. A pullback that holds above 76.80 would keep the breakout structure intact, while a deeper retracement toward 66.10 would test the 50-day SMA and define whether this is a genuine trend reversal or merely a temporary spike. The preferred strategy is to buy controlled weakness or a confirmed breakout above 86.50, with a stop loss below 66.10 to respect the renewed bullish structure while allowing for elevated energy-market volatility.

The 4-hour chart shows a neutral-to-bullish short-term outlook, with price consolidating after an explosive vertical rally that briefly spiked toward 120 before sharply reversing and settling back near 84.87. That kind of price action signals heightened volatility and event-driven trading, so recent extremes should be treated carefully, but the more reliable message is that price remains above the rising 14-period SMA at 87.00, the 50-period SMA at 82.78, and the 200-period SMA at 68.92, which confirms that the short-term trend structure is still constructive despite the violent swings. The first resistance comes in around 87.90, near the current recovery zone and recent post-spike rejection area, while a sustained move through that level would likely re-open 95.00 as the next upside target. On the downside, 82.80 is the first key support because it aligns closely with the 50-period SMA and recent consolidation lows, while 68.90 is the more critical structural support at the 200-period SMA; holding above these levels would suggest the market is digesting gains rather than reversing trend. The Stochastic Momentum Index is positive at 37.99%, which indicates that short-term momentum has recovered from the panic reversal, but because price has not yet reclaimed the spike highs, this is more consistent with stabilisation than a fresh impulsive breakout. That momentum-price relationship supports a neutral-to-bullish stance: buyers retain control above 82.80, but confirmation is still needed above 87.90 before calling for another strong leg higher. For trading purposes, a break and hold above 87.90 favours continuation toward 95.00, while failure below 82.80 would warn of a broader pullback toward 68.90. A practical stop loss for bullish positioning sits below 82.80 for aggressive traders, or below 68.90 for those trading the wider trend.

Wednesday 11th March

The daily chart has shifted into a bullish longer-term structure after a sharp breakout from a prolonged basing range, with price now trading at 85.1440 above the 14-day SMA at 75.0118, the 50-day SMA at 65.4377, and the 200-day SMA in the mid-60s, which confirms a strong trend reversal from accumulation into expansion. The significance of this alignment is important: when the short-term average sits above the medium-term average and both are above the long-term average, it reflects broad participation across time horizons and usually supports trend continuation rather than an isolated spike. The key immediate resistance is 85.14, which is the current breakout zone and an important horizontal level that has capped price repeatedly on the longer-term chart; a sustained daily close above this area would confirm acceptance above range resistance and expose a move toward 92.00, which is the next major historical supply zone and measured breakout objective. On the downside, 75.04 is the first meaningful support because it coincides with the fast moving average and should act as a dynamic demand zone during any pullback, while 65.44 is the more critical structural support as it aligns with the 50-day SMA and the prior breakout base. The Stochastic Momentum Index on the daily timeframe is near 0.80%, which shows momentum has improved sharply but is not yet confirming the full extent of the price breakout; that mild momentum hesitation versus a powerful price thrust creates a degree of short-term divergence risk, meaning the market may consolidate before extending higher. Even so, the weight of evidence remains bullish because price has broken out of a multi-month downtrend and reclaimed all major moving averages. Traders should favour buying retracements rather than chasing vertical candles, with upside targets at 85.14 and then 92.00, while a protective stop loss below 65.44 would best respect the bullish thesis and protect against a failed breakout.

The 4-hour chart confirms that the short-term trend is bullish, with price exploding through prior resistance and holding well above the 14-period SMA at 93.9539, the 50-period SMA at 80.3737, and the 200-period SMA at 68.1572, which shows a strong impulsive leg higher backed by aggressive momentum. This timeframe is more extended than the daily chart, however, and that is where caution is needed: the Stochastic Momentum Index has already pulled back to around -28.62% even though price remains elevated, creating a bearish momentum divergence in the short term, where price is holding near highs but the oscillator is failing to confirm the same strength. That divergence does not automatically mean trend reversal, but it does suggest the rally is overheated and vulnerable to consolidation or a pullback before another leg higher. The first resistance is 93.95, which is the near-term high and fast-average extension area, and a clean break above that level would open the way to 100.00 as the next psychological upside target. Support sits first at 80.37, which is important because it marks the 50-period SMA and the first zone where dip buyers would be expected to defend the breakout; below that, 68.16 is the major trend support at the 200-period SMA, and a fall through that level would imply the breakout has materially failed. In practical trading terms, the short-term bias remains bullish while price holds above 80.37, but risk-reward now favours buying controlled pullbacks rather than chasing momentum after a vertical surge. A stop loss below 68.16 is appropriate for trend-following longs, because a break beneath that level would invalidate the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows and signal that the short-term breakout has transitioned into a deeper corrective phase.

Tuesday 10th March

The daily chart has shifted to a bullish longer-term bias after a powerful breakout lifted price to 91.4390, decisively above the 14-day SMA at 73.6979, the 50-day SMA at 64.8751, and the 200-day SMA, which is still rising underneath and confirms that the broader structure has materially improved. This alignment of the shorter moving averages above the longer moving average is important because it shows trend acceleration, with the 14-day average acting as immediate momentum support and the 50-day average now becoming the key medium-term trend floor on any deeper pullback. The breakout through the prior congestion and the former ceiling in the high-80s to low-90s zone suggests a regime change from consolidation into expansion, but the Stochastic Momentum Index at 20.99% is only modestly positive relative to the size of the price surge, which implies momentum is improving but not yet confirming the full extent of the breakout. That creates a mild divergence risk in the sense that price has exploded higher faster than oscillator strength has expanded, so traders should still expect volatility and possible retests rather than a straight-line continuation. From a level perspective, 95.00 is the first resistance because it is the next obvious post-breakout extension area, while 100.00 is the more important psychological and historical supply zone. On the downside, 85.00 is the first support because it sits near the breakout zone and should act as a retest level if the move is genuine; below that, 78.00 becomes the more important secondary support as it marks the area around the fast moving average cluster and the last major base before the vertical breakout. The preferred strategy remains bullish while price holds above 85.00, targeting a move into 95.00 and then 100.00, with a stop loss below 78.00 because a failure back under that level would suggest the breakout has become exhausted and is reverting into a false move.

The 4-hour chart is also bullish, but it is clearly stretched after a near-vertical rally pushed price to 92.6869, far above the 14-period SMA at 92.6869 earlier in the move, the 50-period SMA at 77.7328, and the 200-period SMA at 67.3443. This extreme separation from the moving averages matters because it confirms very strong short-term trend strength, but it also signals that price is trading well above its mean and is vulnerable to sharp consolidation or retracement as the market digests gains. The Stochastic Momentum Index has already rolled down to around -20.57% while price remains near the highs, which is a clearer bearish divergence signal on this timeframe: price has made an explosive advance, yet momentum has not confirmed and is now fading, indicating that upside follow-through may become more difficult without first resetting conditions. That is why the short-term outlook is still bullish, but only conditionally so, because trend direction remains up while momentum warns of exhaustion risk. Immediate resistance sits at 95.00, where the current spike extension would likely encounter profit-taking, while 100.00 remains the next major upside target if buyers force a breakout continuation. On the downside, 88.00 is the first support because it marks the nearest pullback shelf beneath the breakout candle and is the first level where dip buyers are likely to reappear; below that, 77.70, near the 50-period SMA, is the more important support and the stronger line in the sand for maintaining the short-term bull structure. Tactically, chasing strength at current levels carries poor risk-reward, so the better approach is either to wait for a controlled pullback toward 88.00 or to require a confirmed breakout through 95.00 before adding exposure, with a stop loss below 77.70 because a break under that zone would indicate that the momentum spike has fully unwound and that a deeper corrective move is underway.

Monday 9th March

The daily chart has shifted decisively bullish after an explosive breakout carried price to 91.4390, well above the major moving averages and through the broader multi-year congestion zone that had capped rallies around the low-90s. This move is technically significant because it represents a regime change from a long consolidation into impulsive upside expansion. The 14-day SMA at 72.4756 has turned sharply higher and now reflects strong short-term trend support, while the 50-day SMA at 64.6893 remains well below price and confirms that the medium-term structure has also turned constructive. The 200-day SMA is rising beneath the market and reinforces the longer-term bullish base. From a price-action perspective, 95.00 is the first resistance as it sits just above the current breakout extension and marks the next natural psychological barrier, while 100.00 is the larger upside target given the strength of the breakout and the lack of nearby historical supply once price clears the low-90s. On the downside, 84.00 is the first key support because it approximates the breakout shelf and should act as initial demand on any pullback, while 72.48 is the next major support as it aligns with the 14-day SMA and the top of the prior base. Momentum is confirming rather than diverging against price at this stage: the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is elevated at 69.86%, showing strong upside thrust and supporting the bullish bias. However, because the rally is now highly extended vertically, traders should expect volatility and avoid chasing strength too aggressively; the better risk-reward setup would be a controlled pullback that holds above 84.00. For directional positioning, the upside targets remain 95.00 then 100.00, while a practical stop loss for bullish trades sits below 84.00, or more conservatively below 72.48 if trading with a wider swing horizon.

The 4-hour chart is strongly bullish and shows a clean momentum breakout, with price surging to 91.4390 after accelerating through all key moving averages and leaving prior consolidation behind. The 14-period SMA at 83.8334 is the nearest dynamic support and reflects the current pace of the advance, while the 50-period SMA at 73.7978 and the 200-period SMA at 66.1925 show a fully aligned bullish trend structure, with shorter averages above longer ones. That alignment is important because it indicates trend strength across multiple horizons rather than a one-off spike. The immediate resistance remains 95.00, which is the next nearby psychological and technical hurdle, and a break above that level would likely open a run toward 110.00 given the sharp breakout profile and the limited recent price memory above current levels. Support is first seen at 83.83, where the 14-period SMA and breakout continuation structure should attract dip buyers, while 73.80 is the more important secondary support because it coincides with the 50-period SMA and the last meaningful consolidation zone before the vertical leg higher. Momentum is again confirming the move, not diverging from it: the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is at 77.70%, which shows strong buying pressure and supports continuation risk to the upside. The caution is that such a high reading also signals an overextended short-term condition, meaning the market may need to consolidate before advancing further. In practical terms, that means breakout traders can stay constructive while price holds above 83.83, but they should be prepared for sharp intraday swings. A continuation target sits at 95.00 initially and then 110.00 if momentum persists, while a stop loss below 83.83 is appropriate for tighter tactical longs, and below 73.80 for traders allowing more room beneath the breakout structure.

Friday 6th March

The daily chart is improving after a prolonged basing phase, with price now pressing into the key horizontal resistance zone around 67.00–68.00 while also trading above the 14-day SMA and 50-day SMA, the latter sitting at 63.4758. This is important because the 50-day average often acts as the first medium-term trend filter, and price reclaiming it suggests the recent rally has more substance than a simple short-covering bounce. The 200-day SMA remains above price and is still relatively flat to slightly soft, which means the longer-term trend has not fully turned bullish yet, but the structure is no longer clearly bearish. The Stochastic Momentum Index is strong at 59.52%, confirming improving upside momentum; however, because price is only now approaching a major ceiling that has capped prior rallies, traders should watch for whether momentum continues to confirm a breakout rather than forming a bearish divergence. A daily close above 68.00 would be technically significant because it would mark a break of horizontal resistance and likely open the way toward 76.60, which aligns with the next major supply zone and the current daily 14-day SMA marker area shown near price extension levels. On the downside, 63.50 is the first key support as it lines up with the 50-day SMA and recent breakout base, while 60.00 is stronger structural support from the prior consolidation zone. The preferred strategy is cautiously bullish while price holds above 63.50, with a stop loss below 61.80, because a drop back under that region would suggest the breakout attempt has failed and the broader range is still dominant.

The 4-hour chart shows a much clearer bullish breakout, with price surging above all three moving averages and holding well above the 50-period SMA at 70.5786 and the 200-period SMA at 65.1727, which confirms that short-term and medium-term control has shifted decisively back to buyers. The 14-period SMA at 76.6385 is now tracking tightly beneath price, reflecting strong trend acceleration, while the breakout through the prior resistance band near 72.00–73.50 suggests the market has transitioned from accumulation into momentum expansion. The Stochastic Momentum Index is elevated at 62.81%, which confirms strong buying pressure, but because price has rallied sharply in a short period, traders should be alert for a temporary pullback or consolidation rather than chase extended candles. There is no obvious bearish divergence yet, as momentum is still broadly confirming the new highs, so the directional bias remains bullish unless price loses the breakout zone. Immediate resistance is 76.65, and a sustained push above that level would expose 80.00 as the next psychological and technical upside target. On the downside, 70.60 is first support because it marks the 50-period SMA and the breakout retest area, while 65.20 is major support at the rising 200-period SMA and should be viewed as the line separating bullish continuation from a deeper reversal. The preferred tactic is to buy pullbacks rather than strength, with a stop loss below 69.80 for short-term longs, because a break back beneath that level would weaken the breakout structure and raise the risk of a move back into the old range.