Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish

Monday 12th January

WTI’s longer-term structure remains heavy, with price sitting around 58.7150 and continuing to trade below the major trend filters (the 200-day SMA (green) is still overhead and rolling over, while the 50-day SMA (pink) is also above price), which is a classic “sell-the-rallies” setup because these moving averages often act as dynamic resistance in a downtrend. The recent tape shows lower highs and a steady bleed lower, and while the Stochastic Momentum Indicator is only 25.35% (weak/near the lower band), that’s better read as “downside momentum is dominant but potentially tiring” rather than an automatic buy signal—bear trends can stay oversold for extended periods. The key tell going forward is divergence: if price presses down towards 56.00–55.00 but SMI forms a higher low, that bullish divergence would flag sellers losing control and increases the odds of a rebound back into resistance; without that, any bounce is more likely to be corrective. From a trading perspective, rallies into 60.00 (round-number and recent breakdown area) remain a logical place for supply to reappear, with 64.00 as the next major cap (prior consolidation zone and a likely confluence area with longer-term averages). On the downside, a loss of 56.00 keeps pressure on the multi-month floor near 55.00; a clean break beneath 55.00 would be a trend-extension trigger that opens the door to a deeper leg lower. Stop loss: for bearish positioning, a sensible invalidation sits above 64.00 (tighter traders can use a stop above 60.00 if entering on a rejection signal), because a sustained reclaim of that zone would signal a failed breakdown and a shift towards a broader base.

On the 4-hour timeframe, price is at 57.7282 and still moving within a clear sequence of lower highs, but the market is attempting to stabilise after a recent dip, which is why the bias shifts to neutral-to-bearish rather than outright bearish. The fast 14-period SMA (blue) is trying to flatten, yet price remains capped beneath overhead moving averages (the 50-period SMA (pink) and the 200-period SMA (green) are acting like a ceiling), reinforcing that rebounds are still corrective until proven otherwise. Momentum is more balanced here with the SMI at 53.44%, suggesting the latest bounce has traction, but the divergence test is critical: if price retests 58.80 (near-term pivot/failed rally zone) and the SMI makes a lower high while price makes an equal or marginally higher high, that bearish divergence would be a strong cue that the bounce is running out of steam—often the precursor to the next leg down in a broader downtrend. The immediate upside hurdle is 58.80; a breakout and hold above 60.80 would be the first meaningful trend-change signal on this timeframe (reclaiming the moving-average “ceiling”) and would increase the odds of a recovery swing. Until that happens, supports at 56.50 (recent reaction low area) and 55.00 (the key floor) remain the levels that matter—losing 55.00 would confirm bears are back in control and extend the downside cycle. Stop loss: for short-term bearish trades (selling rejection at resistance), a practical stop sits above 60.80; for anyone attempting a counter-trend long, risk needs to be tight with a stop below 56.50 (or more conservatively below 55.00) because a break of those supports would invalidate the stabilisation thesis.

                                        Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Neutral-to-Bearish

Friday 9th January

On the daily chart, WTI remains in a clear primary downtrend from the 2022 peak, with price currently trading below the declining 50-day SMA (pink) at 58.7256 and below the longer-term 200-day SMA (green), which is acting as “trend gravity” and confirms the broader tape is still risk-off. The 14-day SMA (blue) is hugging price, showing the market is grinding rather than rebounding, and that typically keeps rallies corrective unless price can reclaim and hold above the 50-day average. Momentum is subdued: the SMI is only 7.84%, which indicates there’s limited upside impulse, but importantly it also suggests the recent sell-off is not accelerating—this often happens late in a down-leg and can precede a mean-reversion bounce toward the first major resistance (the 50-day SMA). From a divergence perspective, price has continued to probe lows while the SMI is no longer making aggressive new downside extremes, signalling bearish trend but weakening bearish momentum, so short sellers should be more selective at these levels and prefer selling rallies into resistance rather than chasing breakdowns. Tactically, the higher-probability bearish setup is a failed retest into 58.7–60.0 (prior breakdown zone/50-day resistance), targeting 55.0 then 52.0, with a protective stop above 60.0; conversely, any bullish attempt is still counter-trend and only improves meaningfully if price can reclaim 58.7 and build acceptance above it (otherwise rallies are still “sell-the-rip” in structure).

On the 4-hour chart, price is hovering around 57.6056 after a prolonged sequence of lower highs since mid-year, keeping the short-term structure bearish even though the most recent candles show some stabilisation near the lows. The moving averages reinforce this: the 50-period SMA (pink) is sitting overhead and flattening, while the 200-period SMA (green) remains above price, meaning rebounds are still likely to run into dynamic resistance until the market can reclaim those averages and hold them as support (a key sign a trend change is real rather than just a bounce). Momentum is modestly positive with the SMI at 34.32%, which supports the idea of a developing base, but it’s not strong enough to confirm a trend reversal—if price pushes toward resistance while SMI fails to expand (or rolls over), that’s a practical momentum-divergence warning that the rally is only corrective and likely to fade. Trading-wise, bears still have the edge while below 60.0: selling weakness on a clean 4-hour breakdown under 56.0 targets 55.0 then 52.0, with stops above 58.7–60.0 depending on aggressiveness; bulls should treat any long as tactical only, ideally buying dips that hold 56.0–55.0 with tight risk below 55.0, aiming for a rebound into 60.0 first and 64.0 only if price can reclaim the 50/200-period averages and momentum turns decisively higher.