WTI OIL

11 Aug 2025
WTI Oil: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

Resistance 67.79 then 69.00
Support

65.85 then 63.50

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Resistance

64.47 then 67.13
Support

63.85 then 62.50

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Monday 11th August

WTI has broken below its key short-term support at 65.85, extending a decline from late July and closing decisively under both the 50-day SMA (67.79) and 200-day SMA. This MA alignment, with the 14-day SMA rolling over beneath the 50-day, confirms a downside trend structure and signals that rallies into the 67.80–69.00 zone are likely to meet selling pressure. The Stochastic Momentum Index at -71.21% is in oversold territory, but price action remains heavy, suggesting that any bounce may be corrective unless price recaptures and holds above the 50-day SMA. A further slide toward 63.50 is possible if 65.85 fails to hold on a retest. Traders with a bearish bias could consider stops above 69.00, as a daily close above this level would negate the immediate downtrend.

On the 4-hour chart, the selloff from late July highs remains intact, with price holding below all key SMAs—the 14-period (64.47), 50-period (67.13), and 200-period (near 68). This stacked bearish configuration reflects persistent selling pressure. The SMI at -26.21% is below midline but ticking slightly higher, hinting at a possible short-term pause or minor rebound; however, the lack of bullish divergence suggests limited upside without a momentum shift. Immediate resistance is at 64.47 (14-SMA), followed by heavier supply at 67.13, which coincides with the prior breakdown zone. A break below 63.85 would target 62.50, aligning with previous swing lows. For short trades, stops can be trailed above 67.13 to guard against a reversal should momentum strengthen.

Daily Chart: Longer-Term Bias: Bearish

4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish

Friday 8th August

WTI crude oil has shifted into a bearish longer-term bias as the price has broken below the converging 14-day (blue), 50-day (pink), and 200-day (green) SMAs, which are now acting as overhead resistance rather than support. The 14-day SMA is rolling over, while the 50-day SMA is positioned higher at 67.78, both contributing to downside pressure. Price is currently consolidating just above the key horizontal support level at 64.35, but with the Stochastic Momentum Index plunging into oversold territory at -65.20%, there is risk of further decline unless a bullish divergence develops or support holds. Momentum remains negative and aligned with the recent price trend, confirming the downward pressure rather than offering reversal signals. If the 64.35 level fails to hold, the next downside target becomes 61.90, a previous consolidation low from May. Traders should treat any rally into the SMA cluster as an opportunity to reinitiate shorts. A stop loss should be placed above the 50-day SMA at 67.78, as a close above this level would invalidate the bearish structure.

On the 4-hour chart, WTI is clearly in a bearish phase, as price continues to trend lower beneath the falling 14-period SMA (blue), currently at 65.36, and the 50-period SMA (pink) at 67.79, both of which are sloping down and acting as dynamic resistance. The 200-period SMA (green) has flattened out, suggesting medium-term weakness is becoming entrenched. Price recently bounced near the 64.35 support zone but has failed to mount any meaningful recovery. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -56.09%, confirming bearish momentum but not yet showing a bullish divergence or reversal signal. This supports a continued downside bias unless price decisively reclaims the 65.36–67.00 resistance zone. Immediate support is at 64.35, and a breakdown below this level would expose 62.50, where prior accumulation occurred in early July. Traders may consider short positions on any weak rallies, targeting 62.50, with stops placed above 66.00 to manage risk in the event of a short squeeze or technical rebound.
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