The daily chart shows the DAX losing upward momentum after completing a multi-month advance and now rolling over beneath a cluster of flattening short-term moving averages. Price has pulled back from the 23,495–23,977 region and is now sitting on the 14-day and 50-day SMAs, which have both flattened, signalling a shift from a trending environment into distribution. The 200-day SMA remains upward-sloping, preserving the longer-term trend structure, but the narrowing distance between price and the 200-day SMA suggests waning trend strength. The key development is the clear bearish divergence between price (higher highs into June/July) and the SMI, which has collapsed from overbought conditions to –54.7%, indicating that momentum has deteriorated sharply despite price holding near highs. This divergence warns of a deeper corrective phase. Immediate support sits at 23,000, aligned with prior swing lows and dynamic SMA support; a break below this level exposes a full retracement toward 19,676, the major structural support zone spanning 2023–2024 consolidation. Upside recovery requires a decisive move back above 24,000, with trend continuation only confirmed above 24,350. For risk management, long positions should carry a stop below 23,000, as a breakdown here validates the bearish divergence and signals a transition into a deeper decline.

The 4-hour chart reinforces a bearish short-term bias, with price rolling beneath the 14-period and 50-period SMAs, both of which are now sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. The 200-period SMA remains upward-sloping but has begun to flatten, indicating that the prior medium-term uptrend is losing velocity. The chart shows a clean bearish divergence: price made a marginal higher high in June/July while the SMI trended sharply downward, falling to 10.77% and then turning lower again after a weak rebound—an indication that the internal momentum structure has broken. This divergence is now playing out as price softens beneath the short-term averages. Immediate support is at 23,200, which aligns with the most recent swing lows, but a break below this level likely triggers a move toward 23,000, a major psychological and structural support zone. To negate the bearish structure, price must reclaim 23,700, and only a sustained close above 24,000 would re-establish bullish momentum. For short-term positioning, stops should sit above 23,700, as a reclaim of that level would invalidate the immediate bearish posture and reset the risk/reward structure.

                               Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish

The daily chart shows a neutral-to-bearish longer-term outlook as the price remains above the rising 200-day SMA, but momentum is breaking down sharply beneath the surface. Price has been grinding higher, forming marginal new highs into the 23,400–23,900 region, yet the Stochastic Momentum Index shows a clear and extended bearish divergence, printing lower highs since June while price pushed higher—an early warning that upside strength is fading. The 14-day and 50-day SMAs remain positively aligned above the 200-day SMA, indicating the structural uptrend is intact, but the flattening of the 14-day SMA and the rollover in momentum suggest that buyers are losing control. Immediate horizontal support is found at 22,900, followed by a deeper cluster of historical support levels at 21,800. If price breaks below the short-term support levels you’ve marked (19,676 → 18,969 → 18,018), this would signal a major trend deterioration; however, these levels remain far beneath current price and correspond to higher timeframe structural zones typically tested during macro pullbacks. A breakout above 23,900 would neutralise near-term weakness and re-open 24,300 as the next target, but given the pronounced momentum divergence and early SMA compression, traders should exercise caution and adopt a defensive stance. A protective stop for any long positions should sit below 22,900, beneath the first structural support and the rising trendline.

The 4-hour chart reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, with the price now slipping below both the 14-period and 50-period SMAs, while the 200-period SMA has begun to flatten—often the first signal of a shift from uptrend to distribution. The divergence you identified is stark: price formed a series of higher highs into June–July, yet the Stochastic Momentum Index trended steadily downward, indicating weakening internal momentum despite rising price, a classic bearish divergence that typically precedes pullbacks. This divergence has now been validated by the rollover in moving averages and the price rejection from the July trendline. Immediate support sits at 22,600—if this fails, the next target becomes 22,000, which lines up with multiple prior swing lows and the underside of the broader rising channel. Resistance sits first at 23,500, and then at 23,900, the prior high that produced the divergence. As long as price remains below the short-term moving averages and momentum continues to deteriorate, sellers retain control. A tactical stop for short-term bearish trades should be placed above 23,500, protecting against a reversal back into the prior rising structure.

The daily chart is transitioning into a neutral-to-bearish longer-term structure, as price at 23,485 has broken below the 200-day SMA while losing momentum near the recent all-time highs. Although the 50-day and 14-day SMAs remains positively sloped—indicating the broader trend is still intact—the market is showing clear bearish divergence between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index. Price made a higher high into June–July 2025, but the SMI collapsed from overbought into deep negative territory (−66.69%), signalling a major momentum rollover while price was still rising. This type of divergence typically precedes multi-week corrective phases. Immediate resistance sits at 24,300, with stronger resistance at 24,650, the prior swing high. Key support lies at 23,260, the upper boundary of the March–May consolidation zone, followed by 23,485, aligned with the rising 200-day SMA and a major structural pivot from earlier in the trend. A prudent stop for any new short-term long exposure sits beneath 23,260, while bearish positions should be protected above 24,300, where a reclaim would neutralise the downside bias.

The 4-hour chart shows a firmly bearish short-term outlook, with price at 23,259 breaking decisively below all three SMAs. The 14-period and 50-period SMAs have rolled over sharply, and the 200-period SMA has flattened and begun turning lower, confirming a transition from distribution into short-term downtrend. The recent local high formed in June–July created a pronounced bearish divergence against the SMI, which has trended downward for months and is now printing at −1.99%, signalling sustained momentum exhaustion and an ongoing downside phase. Price breakdown aligns with the divergence: the index failed to make new highs in late October–November despite multiple attempts, forming a series of lower highs followed by a decisive breakdown. Immediate resistance sits at 23,900, while 24,065 marks a stronger resistance area aligned with the 200-period SMA. Short-term support is at 23,260, now being retested; a breakdown opens the door to 22,850, the next major liquidity level. For risk management, short setups should use a stop above 23,900, whereas aggressive dip-buyers need stops below 23,260 to avoid getting caught in continued downside continuation.