20 Oct 2025 On the daily chart price sits between the short SMAs and the 200-day, creating a neutral tape: the 14 SMA and 50 SMA (24,013) are above the current action while the 200-day (23,162) is acting as the immediate reference for trend integrity. Importantly, a classic bearish divergence formed earlier — price made a marginally higher high while the Stochastic Momentum Index trended lower — signalling that the prior advance lacked internals and that the risk of a meaningful pullback increased. The SMI is currently shallow (low-teens) rather than deeply oversold, suggesting the decline still has room and that rallies may be met with supply around the 14–50 SMA band. Practical plan: neutral traders should wait for either a decisive reclaim and hold above 24,304 with improving SMI to resume a bullish bias, or a daily close below 23,700 to confirm a lower-high and open a clearer bearish trend; place protective stops just beyond the opposite SMA (eg. shorts stop >24,304, longs stop <23,700).
The 4-hour shows a clean intraday bounce off the 200-day region (acting as support), with the 14-period flattening and the Stochastic MI recovering from oversold (16.33%) — a sign the immediate selling exhausted and a relief rally is under way. That said, the market remains beneath the 50-day SMA and the earlier daily divergence has not been resolved, so upside is likely capped in the 24,000–24,300 area unless momentum (SMI) confirms with higher highs. Tactical approach: shorters can look to sell into rallies toward 24,000–24,300 with stops just above 24,350; short-term buyers may take small, tactical longs targeting the 14 SMA for a quick scalp but must use tight stops under 23,700 (invalidates the bounce) — only a sustained break and hold above 24,304 with a rising SMI should prompt adding directional long exposure.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral
