DAX
16 Sep 2025
DAX: 4-hourly and daily chart technical view.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
Resistance |
24,082 then 24,500 |
Support |
22,696 then 21,000 |
4-Hour Chart: Short-Term Outlook: Bearish
Resistance |
23,731 then 23,995 |
Support |
23,400 then 23,100 |
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
4-Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Tuesday 16th September
The daily chart for the DAX shows that price action has been consolidating after failing to build on its mid-year highs, with the current level sitting below both the 14-day SMA and the 50-day SMA (24,082), but holding modestly above the 200-day SMA at 22,696. This setup suggests that while longer-term trend support remains intact, near-term weakness has developed. Importantly, a clear bearish divergence has been confirmed between price, which made higher highs into July, and the Stochastic Momentum Index, which has been trending lower and is now at -6.09%. This divergence points to fading upside momentum and increases the risk of a deeper retracement. Immediate resistance is seen at 24,082, aligning with the 50-day SMA, followed by 24,500 if buyers regain traction. On the downside, support levels emerge at 22,696 (200-day SMA), followed by 21,000 and 20,000 on psychological round-number clusters, with 19,676 and 18,969 marking deeper technical floors. Given the divergence setup and the break below the short-term averages, the outlook leans neutral to bearish, with stops on short positions recommended just above 24,100 to protect against failed breakdowns.
The 4-hour timeframe paints a clearer bearish picture, with price currently at 23,700 and trading beneath both the 200-period SMA at 23,995 and the 50-period SMA at 23,731. The 14-period SMA has flattened and is providing near-term resistance around 23,731, indicating that sellers are defending rallies. The Stochastic Momentum Index sits at -3.23%, weak but not oversold, suggesting that momentum remains negative with little evidence of an imminent bounce. The chart structure highlights a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since late August, reinforcing short-term bearish control. Immediate resistance stands at 23,731 (50-period SMA), with the stronger barrier at 23,995 (200-period SMA). If prices fail to retake these levels, downside targets come into play at 23,400, followed by 23,100. The bearish momentum structure implies that rallies into the 23,700–23,900 zone could be opportunities to re-establish shorts, with stop losses recommended just above 24,000 to minimise risk.
Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral to Bearish
4 Hour Chart: Short Term Outlook: Bearish
Monday 15th September
On the daily timeframe, the DAX is consolidating after a strong multi-month advance, but momentum has weakened. Price is still trading above the 200-day SMA (green, 22,675), showing longer-term trend support, though the 14-day SMA (blue) and 50-day SMA (pink, 24,092) are flattening, signalling loss of bullish momentum. A bearish divergence is visible as price made higher highs into July while the Stochastic Momentum Index traced lower highs, highlighting waning buying pressure. The SMI now sits at –11.71%, recovering from oversold conditions but not yet confirming a fresh bullish impulse. Resistance is immediate at 24,100, with a breakout above paving the way toward 25,000. On the downside, initial support is at 22,675 (200-day SMA), with deeper levels at 19,676 and 18,018, marking key prior consolidation and breakout zones. The outlook leans neutral to bearish while price remains capped under 24,100, with stops best placed under 22,600 to protect against breakdown risk.
The 4-hour chart shows a clear deterioration in trend, with price trading below the 200-period SMA (green, 24,007) and capped by the 50-period SMA (pink, 23,712) and 14-period SMA (blue, 23,711), which have both rolled over. This SMA alignment reflects bearish pressure, with rallies meeting resistance at these averages. The Stochastic Momentum Index is at 12.61%, rising from oversold but failing to show strong divergence with price, suggesting that momentum remains weak despite a small recovery bounce. Resistance stands at 23,712 (50-period SMA), with further upside blocked by 24,007 (200-period SMA). Support is initially at 23,600, followed by a stronger zone near 23,200 if sellers regain control. With the short-term structure bearish, a retest of 23,600 appears probable unless the index reclaims and sustains above 24,000. Stops should be set just above 24,050 to guard against a reversal squeeze.
Friday 12th September
The DAX daily chart presents a neutral outlook, as the price remains within a range between key resistance at 24,097.983 and 24,653.109, with support located at 22,653.109 and further downside targets at 19,676.120 and 18,018.002. The price is currently consolidating between the 14-day (blue) and 50-day (pink) simple moving averages (SMAs), indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure. The 200-day SMA (green) at 22,653.109 acts as a significant support level, suggesting that the broader trend remains bullish unless broken. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) has recently entered negative territory, indicating some short-term bearish momentum, but the divergence between the price and the SMI suggests a weakening of selling pressure. Therefore, while the market shows consolidation, it remains at risk of a breakout in either direction, requiring careful observation of the key levels mentioned for potential confirmation of the next move.
The DAX 4-hour chart leans bearish as the price struggles below key resistance levels at 24,026.777 and 24,400.000, while support is seen at 23,716.502 and further at 23,600.000. The 14-period (blue) and 50-period (pink) simple moving averages (SMAs) suggest a bearish bias, as the price remains below the 50-period SMA, with only the 200-period SMA (green) offering limited support. The Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) is firmly in positive territory, with the SMI signaling further downside potential due to divergence from the price, suggesting continued selling pressure. Given this setup, the 4-hour chart signals that the price is likely to test and potentially break through the support levels, with downside targets around 23,600.000. Traders should consider a bearish stance and keep stop-loss levels just above the 24,026.777 resistance to limit potential risks.
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