Tuesday 1st April

The daily chart of the DAX reflects a neutral longer-term bias following a sharp rejection from recent highs and a break below the 14-day moving average (blue line). Price is now testing the 50-day SMA (pink line) around 22,365, a key dynamic support level. This area must hold to prevent a transition into a bearish trend. The 200-day SMA (green line) at 19,882 remains a distant cushion, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend despite short-term pressure. Notably, the Stochastic Momentum Index is crossing lower and has entered deep negative territory, printing -49.39%, which indicates a loss of bullish momentum. There is no clear divergence at this stage, but the SMI’s failure to rebound during the last pullback shows internal weakness. Immediate support lies at 22,365, and if broken, the next downside level is 21,900, a prior horizontal structure. On the upside, bulls must reclaim 22,842 to re-establish control, with 23,300 acting as the next resistance target. A stop loss below 22,200 is advised for traders holding long positions, as a breach could trigger a deeper correction.

The 4-hour chart paints a bearish short-term outlook after a decisive breakdown below all major SMAs, including the 200-period (green line), which currently caps upside near 22,755. Price is now struggling to reclaim even the 14-period SMA (blue line), showing a lack of bullish follow-through. This marks a clear change in market character, shifting from trend continuation to correction. The most recent rebound from 22,000 appears corrective and is not accompanied by a meaningful turn in momentum, as the Stochastic Momentum Index, while curling higher, remains weak at -17.34%. There’s no confirmed bullish divergence, and the sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact. Immediate support rests at the psychological 22,000 mark, while a break below this could see downside momentum accelerate toward 21,600. For bearish setups, short positions could be considered near 22,755 with a stop loss above 22,850, targeting a retest of 22,000 and potentially lower. Bulls would need a break above 22,842 to shift this structure into neutral territory.

Monday 31st March

The daily chart shows a bullish longer-term bias despite the recent consolidation, as the DAX continues to trade above both the 50-day (pink) and 200-day (green) moving averages. The index remains within a well-defined rising channel, with higher highs and higher lows in place since late 2023. However, momentum is currently fading, as reflected by the Stochastic Momentum Index, which has turned sharply lower and broken below the 40% threshold, now sitting around -49%, suggesting downside momentum is building. Price has pulled back from the recent high near 23,000, and is now testing the 50-day moving average support at 22,343. A breakdown below this could open the way for a deeper retracement toward 21,800, which aligns with prior swing lows and the lower bound of the channel. Still, the broader uptrend remains intact unless price closes below the 200-day MA. Upside targets include the recent high at 23,000, followed by 23,200. Bullish positions should use stops below 22,343 to protect against a break of trend support.

The 4-hour chart indicates a bearish short-term outlook as the index continues to trade below all major moving averages, including the 200-period MA at 22,561, which is now exerting downward pressure. The Stochastic Momentum Index remains in negative territory near -40%, with no signs of bullish divergence or reversal yet, suggesting that sellers remain in control. Recent price action has shown a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend. The next support is at 22,561—a close below that level could trigger further downside toward 22,200. On the upside, resistance is now layered at 22,783 (50-period MA) and 22,880 (previous swing high). A break back above these levels would be needed to shift momentum toward a neutral stance. Traders positioning for further downside may consider stops just above 22,880, targeting the 22,200 support zone.

Friday 28th March

The DAX daily chart has shifted to a neutral longer-term bias as the recent strong uptrend appears to be pausing just below the 23,000 mark. The index remains comfortably above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 22,317, and well above the 200-day SMA at 19,841, indicating the underlying trend is still upward, though the current momentum is waning. The Stochastic Momentum Index has rolled over from overbought territory and is now trending down, suggesting slowing bullish momentum and a possible short-term pullback or consolidation phase. No clear divergence is visible yet between price and momentum, but the loss of upward thrust after a prolonged rally warrants caution. The price has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, but the failure to push above 22,894 and the presence of resistance at 23,200 adds weight to the neutral stance. A break below 22,317 could confirm a short-term correction with further downside toward the 21,800 region, while a daily close above 22,894 would reinstate bullish momentum. A suitable stop loss for long positions would be placed just below the 50-day SMA at 22,100.

The 4-hour chart shows a bearish short-term outlook as the DAX has broken below the 50-period SMA and now trades just beneath the 200-period SMA at 22,751. This shift below both key moving averages indicates a weakening short-term trend. Additionally, the Stochastic Momentum Index is turning higher from oversold territory, but without a corresponding bounce in price, indicating a possible bearish divergence and lack of follow-through strength. The recent sequence of lower highs and lower lows signals a potential trend reversal or corrective move in progress. Resistance is clearly established at 23,012, which also aligns with the 50-SMA, while a deeper rally could retest the upper barrier near 23,200. If support at 22,751 breaks decisively, the next downside target lies around 22,300. Short positions could be considered below 22,751, with a stop loss above 23,050 to manage risk.