On the daily timeframe the DAX remains in a clear primary uptrend, with price still trading well above the rising 200-day SMA, which confirms that the longer-term structure is bullish. The shorter 14-day and 50-day SMAs are also rising and sit just beneath current price, reinforcing 23,000–23,500 as the first area of dynamic support. However, the index has been moving sideways to slightly higher since June while the Stochastic Momentum Index has been trending lower from earlier overbought readings to around 40.62%, creating a pronounced bearish momentum divergence: price has made marginal new highs, but each high has been accompanied by weaker momentum. That pattern typically signals a maturing uptrend and increases the risk of a corrective phase even while the larger trend is intact. Immediate resistance is at the recent peak near 24,196, with a psychological extension target at 25,000 if buyers can force a breakout. On the downside, a daily close below 23,000 would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward the prior breakout and horizontal support region around 19,676, with a more structural floor down near 18,018 if selling accelerates. For positioning, existing longs should consider tightening stops to just below 23,000 to lock in gains while allowing some room for normal volatility, while new entries are best delayed until either a clean breakout above 24,196 or a pullback into stronger support confirms renewed momentum.

The 4-hour chart reveals a more fragile picture, with price chopping sideways around the highs while short-term momentum steadily deteriorates. From May through July, price has pushed to slightly higher peaks (highlighted by the rising orange trendline), yet the Stochastic Momentum Index has traced a persistent series of lower highs and now sits in negative territory around −41.60%, a strong multi-month bearish divergence that often precedes a more meaningful correction. The 14-period and 50-period SMAs have flattened and are starting to roll over, signalling waning upside pressure, while the 200-period SMA continues to rise below price, currently offering medium-term support around 24,196. In the near term, 24,196 is the key resistance defined by the recent 4-hour swing high, with 24,800 as the next upside target if that level is convincingly broken. However, given the persistent loss of momentum, the higher-probability scenario is for rallies into 24,000–24,196 to attract selling interest, with an initial downside focus on 24,196 and a secondary target near 23,000 if that support fails. Short-term traders may look to fade strength toward 24,000–24,196 with stops placed above 24,800, while more conservative participants can wait for a clean break below 24,196 to confirm that the divergence is resolving into a downside swing before targeting 23,000 and potentially lower levels.

                                        Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral

On the daily chart the broader trend remains bullish, with price near 23,442 trading comfortably above the rising 200-day SMA, which is trending higher in the low-23,000s and underpins the longer-term up-trend. That moving-average alignment (short-term averages above the long-term) normally favours buying dips rather than selling strength. However, the latest push to marginal new highs has occurred while the Stochastic Momentum Index has been making a series of lower highs (highlighted by your down-sloping line), a classic bearish momentum divergence that signals the up-move is losing energy even as price grinds higher. Immediate resistance sits near the recent peak around 24,500, with 25,000 the next psychological and technical upside level if bulls can force a breakout. On the downside, the first important support zone is around 23,000 where prior swing lows converge; a deeper corrective phase would likely target the 23,442 area, just above the rising 200-day SMA and the major horizontal shelf around 19,676–18,969 that marks the prior consolidation base. For position traders still riding the trend, staying long is reasonable while price holds above 23,000, but stops should now be tightened to just below that zone (around 22,800–22,900) given the clear loss of momentum; fresh longs are better timed on a pullback into 23,000 with the same protective stop, aiming for a measured move back towards 24,500 and possibly 25,000 if momentum can re-accelerate.

The 4-hour chart shows a maturing up-trend with price around 24,182 still above the 200-period SMA (now flattening in the high-23,000s) and the 14- and 50-period SMAs hugging price, but recent price action has shifted from strong higher highs to more of a sideways range under the 24,500 area. The key technical feature here is the pronounced bearish divergence between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index: while price made successive higher highs from May into July (your upper orange line), the SMI has been trending down from overbought towards the mid-range and is only now back around 64.7%, indicating that each new rally leg is being driven by weaker underlying momentum. In practical terms, that often precedes either a deeper pullback or an extended consolidation as the market works off the prior overbought condition. Short-term resistance is clearly defined by the 24,500 zone, with a secondary cap near 24,900–25,000 where earlier spikes stalled. Initial support lies around 23,700, where multiple recent lows and the 200-period SMA intersect, with 23,000 as the next meaningful downside target if that area breaks, opening room for a more serious mean-reversion back towards the daily support band. For active traders, the risk-reward now favours caution: aggressive bears can look to fade strength into 24,500 with stops above 24,900, targeting 23,700 then 23,000, while bulls should avoid chasing breakouts and instead wait for a pullback into the 23,700–23,000 support zone combined with a fresh up-turn in the SMI before re-establishing longs, using a protective stop just below 23,000 to respect the possibility of a larger corrective downswing.

On the daily chart the DAX remains in an overall higher-highs pattern and is trading above the 200-day SMA (the rising green line), which means the medium-term structural trend is still constructive; the 50-day (pink) and 14-day (blue) SMAs sit close above/below price showing short-term chop but not a clean trend failure. That said, price made marginal new highs over the summer while the Stochastic Momentum Index has trended lower (see the orange slope on the SMI) — a positive momentum divergence. Positive divergence signals the pace of buying is fading even as price nudges higher, so upside from here is lower-probability unless momentum returns. Technically the first upside barrier is the recent highs around 24,400 (where prior candles stalled), with a secondary target at the round 25,000 area if a decisive daily close clears that level. On the downside the 23,000 area is the first meaningful support (a cluster of intraday lows and where the 200-day SMA offers structural support); a larger break would expose the heavier support band around 19,676 (previous multi-month demand). Trading plan: neutral bias — avoid initiating large directional longs up here; if you want to participate to the upside wait for a clean daily close above 24,400 (target 25,000) and use a stop under 23,000. Alternatively, a daily breakdown under 23,000 on expanding momentum would justify a short with a stop back above 24,000, targeting the 19,676 zone.

The 4-hour view shows the same tension at a shorter horizon: price has been oscillating around the short SMAs and is probing the 200-period average, but the SMI on the 4-hour is much clearer in its down-sloping behaviour while price has made sideways-to-slightly-higher swings — classic short-term bearish divergence that warns of an increased chance of a fade or consolidative pullback. Practically, intraday supply clusters sit around 24,300–24,800 where recent rallies were capped; immediate intraday support is the 23,600 region with the stronger floor at 23,000 which ties back into the daily structure. For traders: prefer short, tactical setups into failed attempts above 24,300 with tight risk (stop above 24,400) targeting 23,600 then 23,000, or wait for a clean 4-hour close above 24,300 to confirm short-term continuation (target 24,800) and place a stop below 23,900. Also watch the SMI: a higher low in SMI while price holds 23,600 would invalidate the bearish short-term case and open low-risk long setups; persistent SMI weakness while price grinds higher would keep the bias tilted to short/neutral.

On the daily timeframe the market is sitting near all-time/near-term highs (price ≈ 24,150) and the moving averages are compressed beneath price (the 50-day and 14-day are hugging price while the 200-day sits just below), which shows the longer-term trend remains constructive but lacks clear fresh momentum. Crucially, price made a higher high through mid-year while the Stochastic Momentum Index has been rolling lower (orange divergence on the SMI), a classic bearish divergence that warns rallies are losing internals even though the trend remains intact — that divergence lowers conviction for breakout buying. Technical plan: treat strength above the 24,800 area as the only clean confirmation for renewed upside toward the 25,500/round-number zone, but otherwise prefer defensive, trend-respecting trades — look for failed attempts above 24,800 as shortable with stops a few percent above 25,500; neutral/rehabilitation of the bullish case requires the SMI to re-accelerate higher in tandem with price. Key supports to defend the constructive bias are near 23,400 (recent consolidation lows and the short SMA band); if 23,400 gives way, the next structurally important support cluster is down near the 19,676 level shown on the chart and the bias should be treated as at least neutral-to-bearish until price reclaims the 24,800 zone. Position sizing should be conservative given the SMI divergence and mixed SMA alignment.

The 4-hour picture shows price consolidating under the shorter moving averages with the 14/50 SMAs flattening and the 200-period 4-hour SMA acting as overhead resistance — short-term momentum on the SMI has been weakening and the intraday oscillator has not confirmed recent minor highs, which supports a cautious, neutral-to-bearish short-term tilt. Practically, traders can look for range-responsive setups: a decisive move and hold above 24,400–24,800 (preferably accompanied by an SMI lift) would open a short-term continuation long toward 25,000 area, while failure to breach and a turn down through 23,800 exposes 23,400 and opens the path back toward the larger support cluster. Recommended risk control: for short trades taken on failed rallies keep stops above 24,800 (the invalidation for the short bias), and for any speculative long keep a tight stop below 23,800 (or the intraday swing low) because the momentum structure and SMA alignment currently favour mean reversion or modest pullbacks rather than a fresh, confident advance.

The daily picture shows the index trading above the 200-day SMA (green) and near the 14/50-day SMA cluster (blue/pink), which tells you the longer-term uptrend remains intact but short-term breadth has softened — the 200-day sits as the structural bull/bear fence (buyers should expect support there if a larger correction arrives). Note the clear price/momentum split: price made a subtle series of higher highs into the mid-year peaks (orange line on price) while the Stochastic Momentum Index has printed lower highs over the same period (orange slope on the oscillator), a classic bearish divergence that warns the recent advance is running out of energetic support and increases the odds of a multi-week consolidation or pullback. Practical trade ideas: favour buying only on shallow mean-reverting pullbacks toward 23,000–22,700 with a protective stop below 22,500 (below the near-term swing low), or consider tactical shorts/hedges on failure through 24,600 with a stop above 25,000 and an initial profit target near 23,000 (secondary target at the daily structural support 19,676) — position sizes should be reduced until the SMI confirms renewed momentum.

The 4-hour view shows the faster 14/50SMAs have flattened and the price is only narrowly holding above the 200-period average for this timeframe, indicating the intraday trend lacks conviction; importantly the Stochastic Momentum Index on the 4-hour has been rolling lower while price attempted to grind higher — the intraday momentum divergence increases the probability of a corrective leg or range expansion to the downside. Tactics: avoid fresh trend-following longs until the 4-hour SMI clears back into a healthy rising band or price decisively reclaims and holds above 24,600. Short-term traders can look to sell rallies into 24,400–24,600 with a tight stop above 24,900, targeting 23,600 for an initial take-profit and 23,000 as a deeper pullback target; conversely, if price closes and sustains above 24,900 on strong SMI confirmation, trim shorts and reassess for a resumption of the broader uptrend with a stop under 24,600.

On the daily timeframe the market is still sitting at multi-year highs (price 24,100–24,200) but the internals show clear deterioration — price has made a marginal new high while the Stochastic Momentum Index has been tracing lower highs (highlighted on the chart), a textbook negative divergence that warns the upside impulse is losing conviction. The 200-day SMA (green, 23,389) sits just beneath price and remains the most important structural line: a clean daily close below that 200-SMA would shift the longer-term bias back toward bearish. The shorter SMAs (14 and 50) are tightly bunched and beginning to flatten, which signals range/consolidation risk rather than a strong trending advance; that compression increases the chance of a corrective leg. Tactical levels: a sustained break and close above 24,300 would revalidate upside (next extension target 24,800), while failure to hold the 200-day SMA exposes a deeper retracement toward the larger support shelf near 19,676 (the blue horizontal support cluster on the chart). Trading plan: avoid sizey new long commitments while divergence persists — for longs require a reclaim of 24,300 with stop under the 50-day SMA or intraday swing low; for those preferring to trade the warning, consider tight mean-reversion shorts into rallies with stops above 24,800 and targets initially toward the 200-day SMA (protective stop for shorts 24,900).

The 4-hour picture is more clearly negative: short SMAs (14 and 50) are rolling over and price has pulled back from the recent intraday peak, meeting resistance around the short MA cluster near 24,100–24,300. The Stochastic Momentum Index on the 4-hour has been weakening and formed lower highs while price attempted to make higher highs — a near-term momentum divergence that typically precedes corrective moves. Immediate support is the 200-period/200-day confluence around 23,389; a break below that level on a 4-hour close would confirm the short-term bearish case and open a move toward the 23,000 area as an initial downside target. Trading approach: favour short/mean-reversion trades on rallies into 24,000–24,100 with tight stops above 24,300 (stop 24,400) and initial profit taking at 23,389; if attempting to buy the dip, wait for price to stabilise above the 14/50 SMAs with an SMI recovery and place stops just below 23,000 to limit downside if the corrective leg extends.