The daily chart is transitioning into a neutral-to-bearish longer-term structure, as price at 23,485 has broken below the 200-day SMA while losing momentum near the recent all-time highs. Although the 50-day and 14-day SMAs remains positively sloped—indicating the broader trend is still intact—the market is showing clear bearish divergence between price and the Stochastic Momentum Index. Price made a higher high into June–July 2025, but the SMI collapsed from overbought into deep negative territory (−66.69%), signalling a major momentum rollover while price was still rising. This type of divergence typically precedes multi-week corrective phases. Immediate resistance sits at 24,300, with stronger resistance at 24,650, the prior swing high. Key support lies at 23,260, the upper boundary of the March–May consolidation zone, followed by 23,485, aligned with the rising 200-day SMA and a major structural pivot from earlier in the trend. A prudent stop for any new short-term long exposure sits beneath 23,260, while bearish positions should be protected above 24,300, where a reclaim would neutralise the downside bias.

The 4-hour chart shows a firmly bearish short-term outlook, with price at 23,259 breaking decisively below all three SMAs. The 14-period and 50-period SMAs have rolled over sharply, and the 200-period SMA has flattened and begun turning lower, confirming a transition from distribution into short-term downtrend. The recent local high formed in June–July created a pronounced bearish divergence against the SMI, which has trended downward for months and is now printing at −1.99%, signalling sustained momentum exhaustion and an ongoing downside phase. Price breakdown aligns with the divergence: the index failed to make new highs in late October–November despite multiple attempts, forming a series of lower highs followed by a decisive breakdown. Immediate resistance sits at 23,900, while 24,065 marks a stronger resistance area aligned with the 200-period SMA. Short-term support is at 23,260, now being retested; a breakdown opens the door to 22,850, the next major liquidity level. For risk management, short setups should use a stop above 23,900, whereas aggressive dip-buyers need stops below 23,260 to avoid getting caught in continued downside continuation.

                               Daily Chart: Longer Term Bias: Neutral-to-Bearish

The daily chart shows a neutral-to-bearish longer-term bias, with the DAX trading at 23,483 but struggling to make meaningful progress above the prior highs from June–July. Price remains above the rising 200-day SMA at 23,483, confirming the broader uptrend structure is still intact, yet the loss of upward momentum is becoming increasingly pronounced. The short-term SMAs (14-day and 50-day) have flattened and are beginning to roll over above 23,000, forming a shallow topping structure. The clearest technical warning comes from a strong bearish divergence in the Stochastic Momentum Index, where price has printed higher highs while the SMI has made lower highs for over three months, now sitting at a deeply negative –47.10%. This mismatch signals weakening trend participation and makes the recent highs highly vulnerable to reversal. Immediate resistance sits at 24,500, with a larger bearish inflection level at 25,000, where repeated rejections have occurred. Initial support is at 23,250, with a deeper correction likely extending toward 21,800 if the divergence fully plays out. A protective stop for any bullish exposure should sit beneath 23,250, as a breakdown here would confirm the momentum rollover and shift the longer-term structure decisively bearish.

The 4-hour chart reinforces a bearish short-term outlook, with price failing to hold above 24,100 and now slipping under the key short-term moving averages, while the 200-period SMA near 24,100 has flattened—often a precursor to trend exhaustion. The most critical signal on this timeframe is the clean bearish divergence, where the DAX made a higher high into late June/early July, yet the SMI continued carving a multi-week downward slope, now sitting heavily negative at –1.55%. This breakdown in momentum confirms internal weakness even before price structure fully turns. Immediate resistance sits at 24,100, followed by major resistance at 24,500, the same level that capped upside in both June and July. Support begins at 23,000, with a deeper downside target at 22,200, aligning with a prior demand zone and the lower boundary of the medium-term consolidation. As selling pressure accelerates, rallies into 24,100 are likely to fail unless the SMI reverses sharply. A tactical stop for short-term bearish positions should be placed above 24,500, as a break above this level would invalidate the current divergence-driven downside structure.

The daily chart shows that the DAX has shifted from a strong uptrend into a neutral-to-bearish longer-term structure, with price rolling over after forming a clear bearish divergence—price made new highs between May and July while the Stochastic Momentum Index moved sharply lower. This divergence signals fading internal momentum despite higher prices, often preceding trend exhaustion. Price is currently sitting near 23,475, just above the 200-day SMA but losing upside follow-through, while the 14-day SMA has begun to flatten and hook slightly lower. The 50-day SMA remains upward-sloping, so the long-term trend has not structurally broken, but momentum deterioration suggests that pullbacks are becoming more likely. Immediate resistance is located at 24,300, the most recent swing high, followed by 25,000, the upper boundary of the prior upward channel. A close below 23,000—the nearest structural support—would confirm a deeper correction, exposing the cluster of major support levels drawn on your chart at 19,676, 18,969, and 18,018, which represent the key demand shelves from 2023–2024. Traders considering short-side exposure should place a protective stop above 24,300, while any remaining long positions should place a stop just below 23,000 to avoid participation in a momentum breakdown.

The 4-hour chart cleanly confirms the short-term bearish outlook, with price failing multiple times at 24,000–24,300 and establishing a well-defined series of lower highs. The 14- and 50-period SMAs have rolled over and crossed beneath the 200-period SMA, creating a bearish momentum alignment that typically precedes continued pressure. The most important signal, however, is the strong bearish divergence: price made a marginal new high in July while the Stochastic Momentum Index collapsed to lower lows—an early warning of exhaustion that is now playing out. Price currently trades around 24,135, but momentum is decisively negative, with the SMI at –62.09%, indicating oversold but still declining conditions. Immediate support sits at 23,200, which, if broken, opens a quick path toward 22,500, the March–April consolidation zone. Upside attempts should struggle while price remains below 24,000, and a decisive break above 24,300 would be required to neutralize short-term bearish momentum. For bearish positions, stops should sit above 24,300, while bulls should avoid new entries until the SMI shows a confirmed reversal and the 14-period SMA begins to curl upward again.

The daily chart shows that the DAX remains in a broad uptrend, with price holding near 23,469, but the structure has shifted from clean bullish momentum to neutral with clear deterioration. Price is still above the 50-day and 14-day SMAs, but both have begun to flatten, while the 200-day SMA near the 23,469 area continues rising — still supportive but no longer accelerating. Price has formed a series of marginal higher highs between June and September 2025, yet the Stochastic Momentum Index has printed sharply lower highs, forming a strong multi-month bearish divergence, signalling weakening upside pressure despite price grinding upward. Immediate resistance remains at 24,500, the area repeatedly rejected during August–September, with a broader extension to 25,000 if momentum reignites. On the downside, initial structural support is the round 23,000 region, but the next major pivot sits at 19,676, which is also the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone and has been marked clearly on your chart. The daily trend remains technically upward, but the divergence and flattening SMAs imply a maturing rally. A close below 23,000 would confirm momentum rollover and open a deeper move toward 19,676, while a protective stop for long positions sits just below 23,000 to avoid a trend failure.

The 4-hour chart turns decisively bearish, with price at 24,171 slipping above the 14- and 50-period SMAs, both of which are rolling over and beginning to cross downward — a short-term trend reversal signal. The 200-period SMA is aligned with the price but is flattening, no longer acting as dynamic trend support. The July–August price action formed higher highs, but the SMI has been trending sharply downward for months, creating a clean, extended bearish divergence that has now begun to unwind, with the SMI collapsing to –47.91%, confirming heavy momentum deterioration. Resistance now sits at 24,300, where short-term SMAs converge, and a secondary level lies at 24,600, the recently failed breakout area. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 23,500, followed by the higher-timeframe pivot at 23,000; a break below this level would align both timeframes into a unified bearish structure targeting lower levels. For tactical positioning, short-term sellers can lean into the breakdown momentum, targeting 23,500 → 23,000, with stops placed above 24,300 to avoid a squeeze back into the broken moving-average cluster.

The daily chart maintains a broader bullish structure, with price holding near 23,463, still above the rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the long-term uptrend remains intact. However, the slope of the 14- and 50-day SMAs has begun to flatten, showing that upside momentum is slowing after the extended May–July advance. Importantly, price has made higher highs into June–July, while the Stochastic Momentum Index has formed a clear series of lower highs, producing a well-defined bearish momentum divergence. This indicates internal exhaustion despite price stability near the highs. Immediate resistance sits around 24,500, where several recent peaks cluster, before a more psychological ceiling near 25,000. On the downside, near-term support is around 23,000, which corresponds to the most recent swing low and the top of the prior consolidation shelf. If selling accelerates, the next major structural support lies at 19,676, aligning closely with the major horizontal level drawn on your chart. Given the divergence and slowing trend strength, traders should treat rallies into 24,500 as vulnerable to rejection, with protective stops placed under 23,000 if holding longs.

The 4-hour chart reflects a clear loss of momentum, with price consolidating around 24,192 while the 14- and 50-period moving averages drift sideways and the 200-period SMA begins to flatten. Price continues to register higher short-term highs, but the SMI is plunging sharply into –29.40%, creating a pronounced bearish divergence that confirms weakening buying pressure beneath the surface. Immediate resistance lies near 24,300, where recent intraday highs intersect, followed by 24,700, the upper boundary of the summer range. Support is first seen at 23,800, the most recent pullback low, with a deeper level at 23,000, which aligns with both a major swing low and one of the key horizontal levels shown in your chart. The short-term momentum profile clearly favours a pullback, and traders may look to fade strength into 24,300–24,700 with stops above 24,750. Any break below 23,800 increases the probability of a corrective push toward 23,000, where stronger buyers are likely to re-engage.

On the daily timeframe the DAX remains in a clear primary uptrend, with price still trading well above the rising 200-day SMA, which confirms that the longer-term structure is bullish. The shorter 14-day and 50-day SMAs are also rising and sit just beneath current price, reinforcing 23,000–23,500 as the first area of dynamic support. However, the index has been moving sideways to slightly higher since June while the Stochastic Momentum Index has been trending lower from earlier overbought readings to around 40.62%, creating a pronounced bearish momentum divergence: price has made marginal new highs, but each high has been accompanied by weaker momentum. That pattern typically signals a maturing uptrend and increases the risk of a corrective phase even while the larger trend is intact. Immediate resistance is at the recent peak near 24,196, with a psychological extension target at 25,000 if buyers can force a breakout. On the downside, a daily close below 23,000 would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward the prior breakout and horizontal support region around 19,676, with a more structural floor down near 18,018 if selling accelerates. For positioning, existing longs should consider tightening stops to just below 23,000 to lock in gains while allowing some room for normal volatility, while new entries are best delayed until either a clean breakout above 24,196 or a pullback into stronger support confirms renewed momentum.

The 4-hour chart reveals a more fragile picture, with price chopping sideways around the highs while short-term momentum steadily deteriorates. From May through July, price has pushed to slightly higher peaks (highlighted by the rising orange trendline), yet the Stochastic Momentum Index has traced a persistent series of lower highs and now sits in negative territory around −41.60%, a strong multi-month bearish divergence that often precedes a more meaningful correction. The 14-period and 50-period SMAs have flattened and are starting to roll over, signalling waning upside pressure, while the 200-period SMA continues to rise below price, currently offering medium-term support around 24,196. In the near term, 24,196 is the key resistance defined by the recent 4-hour swing high, with 24,800 as the next upside target if that level is convincingly broken. However, given the persistent loss of momentum, the higher-probability scenario is for rallies into 24,000–24,196 to attract selling interest, with an initial downside focus on 24,196 and a secondary target near 23,000 if that support fails. Short-term traders may look to fade strength toward 24,000–24,196 with stops placed above 24,800, while more conservative participants can wait for a clean break below 24,196 to confirm that the divergence is resolving into a downside swing before targeting 23,000 and potentially lower levels.